Good Morning! DoorDash is buying Instacart for $17 billion in a deal to take on Walmart and Amazon. Microsoft and Google both reported capital spending below analysts’ estimates as the AI build-out hit a snag. And Kalshi’s valuation jumped to $40 billion in its latest funding round.

NYC Marathon runners have raised more than $100 million for charity so far this year. The US economy grew at a faster-than-expected 3.4% pace in the third quarter. And HSBC is looking to hedge its data-center debt exposure with credit risk insurance.

Plus: Ares raised $8 billion at the first close of its flagship credit fund, Eli Lilly sees room for “dramatic” growth in the obesity market, and how to break through an exercise plateau.

AI models move too fast for today’s data center infrastructure. Learn more about how BluSky is building to change that.

Blowing up your hedge fund after running leverage as high as 400% used to make the next fundraising pitch a tough sell. But it turns out that 24-year-old Leopold Aschenbrenner and exposure to the AI buildout is too irresistible, and investors are lining up to give him another chance.

Just three months after leveraged AI bets nearly sank his hedge fund, Aschenbrenner is back. His hedge fund, Situational Awareness, is reportedly pitching investors on a deal that would value Fluidstack, a company that supplies computing power to AI developers, at $40 billion.

Clients would invest alongside Situational Awareness in that specific company rather than put more money into the hedge fund itself. The fund led Fluidstack’s January round at a $7.5 billion valuation, which would make the proposed price more than 5x that level and roughly double what it fetched just months ago. 

It’s an interesting week to ask investors to back a neocloud company at a lofty valuation. Earlier this week, Elon Musk predicted “guppy-level death and consolidation” across the neocloud sector as financing gets harder to secure. But apparently Aschenbrenner is unfazed and is asking investors to back one at a $40 billion valuation.

Fluidstack does have some positives going for it, and Anthropic has already committed to a $50 billion US data-center buildout with the company, and Google has provided billions in financial backstops for related projects, so those relationships could become a moat compared to weaker rivals. 

But the bear case is that a proposed valuation more than 5x January’s price already assumes plenty of success and doesn’t price in financing risk. So while demand for computing power will probably keep growing, that doesn’t mean every company supplying it will be a good investment.

Takeaway: Aschenbrenner’s cooling-off period apparently lasted only one quarter, but it’s worth noting that he did promise changes after July’s losses. He told investors the fund had removed all leverage from its portfolio. We’ll see where Aschenbrenner’s investing career goes from here, but it’s clear that the Nostradamus of AI is pretty comfortable making more aggressive AI bets.

The constraint on AI has less to do with better models and more to do with finding durable power sources to plug them in. Goldman Sachs projects global data center power demand will rise 170% between 2025 and 2030, with more than 60% of that growth in the U.S. Its latest infrastructure report calls power "probably the forever bottleneck."

Current data center construction operates on a 3-7 year timeline, which is ironically slow in an era built around speed.

BluSky AI, however, is a company planning to build for speed with AI factory sites that are distinct from other data center sites. Their sites are targeting a 12-month timeline, they’re energy efficient (<50MW per location compared to 500+MW), and they will operate on a closed loop water cooling system using near-zero water.

They’re currently raising capital for US expansion. If you are interested in investing in AI infrastructure, learn more about them here.*

Market Update

Economic Data

Movers & Shakers

Prediction Markets

Private Dealmaking

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

Description: Jonah Berger explores how small changes in language can dramatically influence how people think, communicate, and make decisions. Drawing on behavioral science and research, he identifies six categories of powerful words that can increase persuasion, build trust, encourage action, and strengthen relationships. The book provides practical techniques for improving presentations, negotiations, emails, leadership communication, and everyday conversations.

Book Length: 256 pages
Release Date: March 7, 2023

Ideal For: Executives, CFOs, entrepreneurs, sales leaders, and professionals who want to improve persuasion, negotiation, presentations, and leadership communication.

The right words can change minds, build trust, and turn good ideas into action.

Higher financing costs and tighter return thresholds have made entry price more consequential than ever. Buyers have less room for error, while bankers increasingly need to understand how far sponsors can stretch on valuation in a live process.

Mosaic’s new Reverse LBO helps answer that question quickly.

Enter a target IRR or MOIC, and Mosaic works backward to calculate the maximum purchase price, entry multiple, or bid premium that supports the required return. As growth, margins, leverage, financing costs, or other assumptions change, the answer updates automatically.

For bankers, that means a faster way to frame sponsor bid capacity, pressure-test valuation, and run scenarios during a process. For PE teams, it means quickly understanding how much they can pay while still preserving target returns.

See a Reverse LBO in action.

A study of 19,806 people in England asked how much time they spent in nature each week, in places as ordinary as town parks and beaches. Those with 120 to 180 minutes had 1.6 times the odds of reporting good health, and 1.23 times the odds of high wellbeing, compared with people who had none.

Below 120 minutes, no such benefit appeared. The effect peaked at 200 to 300 minutes a week and did not grow after that.

It made no difference whether the time came in one long visit or several short ones. Two hours a week is a threshold you can plan around.

📣 Partner With Us: Get in front of an audience of over 1.5 million finance professionals, business leaders, and policy influencers. Submit a partnership inquiry.

🥂 Buysiders Club: A private, members-only club for VP+ Wall Street professionals, with exclusive events and private deal flow. Membership is by application only. Apply for membership.

📊 Wall Street Comp & Culture Data: Get the most detailed compensation, carry, and culture insights across 1000+ Wall Street firms. Explore the data.

📈 Grow With Us: Work directly with the Overheard on Wall Street team to scale your finance brand. Schedule your free consult.

🧢 Wall Street Shop: Explore our collection of finance-themed apparel and merchandise. Visit the shop.