Good Morning! Stocks hit fresh records last week, and strategists say the rally still has room to run. Trump’s proposed $100K fee on H-1B visas sparked panic before the White House clarified it won’t hit current holders. And Ray Dalio is bullish on gold and non-fiat currencies as mounting debt pressures raise devaluation risks.

Sumitomo Mitsui is raising its stake in Jefferies to as much as 20%. Wealthy customers are driving high-end car sales. And OpenAI is leading a private-market boom, with seven tech startups now worth a combined $1.3 trillion.

Plus: “Lock-in season” could boost careers but also spark burnout, how robotaxis could change traffic, and the five most popular ways Americans are building wealth.

Kalshi traders are pricing Q3 GDP at 2.9%. What’s your call? Trade your prediction here.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

xAI Raising Billions, Losing Leaders

Since leaving Washington in June, Musk has gone all-in on xAI, setting up in Palo Alto, sleeping on couches, firing senior staff, and aggressively hiring engineers to close the gap with OpenAI and Google.

The result: the startup is reportedly raising $10B at a $200B valuation, putting its ascent in the same weight class as Anthropic ($183B) while still trailing OpenAI’s $500B valuation.

Musk called the report “fake news,” but the timing makes sense, just months ago he raised $10B in debt and equity at $150B, and last year xAI was valued at $80B when folded into X.

xAI is using the funding to build infrastructure and hardware. He’s already invested billions into a Tennessee “Gigafactory of Compute” packed with 100,000 Nvidia GPUs.

Musk claims Grok now has 64 million monthly users, which is still a fraction of ChatGPT’s 700 million weekly, but enough for him to project $10 billion in future ad revenue for X. 

Musk has also teased spin-offs with names like Macrohard (a Microsoft rival) and Baby Grok (AI for toddlers). But turbulence is mounting: the CFO resigned to join OpenAI, 500 layoffs hit the annotation team, other senior leaders quit, and Musk has leaned on Tesla shareholders to invest directly.

Grok, meanwhile, went viral for the wrong reasons, spitting out antisemitic and toxic content. Musk’s response wasn’t to rein it in but to make it “edgier” and launch a $300-per-month upgrade called SuperGrok Heavy. The move triggered an exodus of researchers, who accused xAI of chasing hype over science and safety.

Takeaway: The AI wars are in full swing and who knows xAI may end up being Musk’s most valuable company. Whether Grok can ever equal ChatGPT, Claude, or whatever emerges next, both technically and reputationally, remains hugely uncertain. But one thing is clear: investors are buying Musk’s compute-at-scale and risk-embracing posture as much as the AI product itself.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Wall Street strategists say stocks could keep rising from records (YF)

• Trump imposes $100K fee on H-1B visas in new immigration action (CNN)

• Ray Dalio says gold, non-fiat currencies will be stronger stores of value as U.S. debt mounts (CNBC)

• Jefferies deepens ties with Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui (WSJ)

• Why the rich are propping up car sales (CNBC)

• OpenAI leads private market surge as 7 tech startups reach combined $1.3T valuation (CNBC)

• The 'lock-in season' trend promotes career growth, but could also lead to burnout (CNBC)

• JPMorgan Chase hires two senior bankers to bolster consumer, retail investment team (YF)

• The hottest thing in the stock market is suddenly boring tech (YF)

• How nuclear power could be a $10 trillion market opportunity (YF)

• How a deal with Elon Musk helped a telecom tycoon save his company (FT)

• TikTok buyer group includes Rupert Murdoch and Michael Dell (Axios)

• Blackstone names new CEO of real-estate MF after exec’s fatal shooting (WSJ)

• Dogecoin ETF to begin trading in ‘watershed moment’ for pro-crypto SEC (FT)

• SEC to propose rule change on Trump’s call to end quarterly earnings reporting (CNBC)

• America's new apartment boom is ending (Axios)

• How robotaxis could change traffic (LI)

• Trump signs "gold card" residency order, cuts price to $1 million (Axios)

PRESENTED BY KALSHI

Trade Q3 GDP Growth Following the Fed's Rate Decision

With the Fed's September rate decision now behind us, all eyes turn to Q3 GDP data. Consumer spending, business investment, and employment trends will determine whether the economy maintains momentum or shows signs of cooling.

Kalshi's Q3 GDP market lets you trade on whether real GDP growth exceeds key thresholds. Traditional economic indicators like retail sales, jobless claims, and manufacturing data drive these numbers, but markets often price in expectations before official releases.

Position yourself ahead of the October GDP announcement when the Bureau of Economic Analysis reveals the quarter's actual performance.

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Stocks hit fresh highs to cap a positive week – Equities rose on the back of lower rate expectations following Wednesday’s Fed cut.

• Tech leads – The technology sector was strongest, while energy stocks lagged as oil fell for a third straight session.

• Corporate movers – FedEx gained more than 2% after reporting stronger-than-expected earnings despite warning of a $1B trade impact.

• Bonds and dollar – Yields and the U.S. dollar rebounded, retracing part of this month’s declines.

• Looking ahead – Focus shifts to next week’s core PCE inflation release, the Fed’s preferred gauge.

Economic Data Highlights

• Fed reboot of easing cycle – The Fed cut rates 25 bps to 4.0–4.25% and projected up to two more cuts this year.

• Market impact – Small-caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 hitting its first new high in four years.

• Bond positioning – With the 10-year yield near the low end of its 4.0–4.5% range, duration stance shifted to neutral from overweight.

• Policy outlook – The Fed is expected to move gradually, data-dependent, with the bias toward further easing.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Brighthouse Financial ($BHF) +27% after the financial services company is at the center of acquisition rumors.

• (+) Oracle ($ORCL) +4% because the deal to acquire TikTok continues to gain momentum.

• (–) Scholastic ($SCHL) -12% after the publishing company announced sales below earnings.

Private Dealmaking

• Upscale.ai, an AI networking startup, raised $100 million

• Irregular, an AI security startup, raised $80 million

• MRM Health, a microbiome startup, raised $60 million

• Nitricity, an organic fertilizer maker, raised $50 million

• Maisa AI, a developer of enterprise AI agents, raised $25 million

• Reframe Systems, a home construction automation startup, raised $20 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH

Real Estate Digest

Need help with real estate? Our official partner, Nest Seekers International, can help you buy, sell, rent, or invest, anywhere in the world. Get in touch here.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell another 9 bps this week. Refinances made up 60% of mortgage applications, the highest share since January 2022. Rates are down nearly three-quarters of a point since the start of the year, and optimism is building that the 30-year could soon drop below 6%.

Latest News

• Mortgage Rates Dropped to Three Year Low Ahead of Fed Meeting

• US Housing Starts Fall to Lowest Levels Since May

• US Home Builder Sentiment Stays Low Despite Interest Rate Drop

• Affluent Brooklyn Neighborhood Dumbo Leads NYC in Rental Price Decline

New Listings

• 60 Riverside Boulevard Apt: 2402 New York, NY: 2 Bed / 2.5 Bath – $2.8M

• 191 Shinnecock Hills Rd Ext Shinnecock Hills, NY: 7 Bed / 4 Bath – $2.8M

• 350 Ocean Dr Apt: 205N Key Biscayne, FL: 2 Bed / 3 Bath – $3.4M

• La Mairena Ojén, Málaga Spain: 5 Bed / 6 Bath – $4.1M

• Mirabello Villas Apt: 636 Agios Nikolaos, Crete Greece: 5 Bed / 5.5 Bath – $4.8M

BOOK OF THE DAY

Your Money Has Feelings

Description: A personal finance guide with heart. Shannon Ryan argues that our financial decisions are deeply emotional, shaped by childhood, culture, shame, fear, and past trauma. She shows how recognizing these “money wounds” can unlock true financial freedom. The book blends behavioral finance, stories, reflection prompts, and practical tools—from aligning spending with values to healthier budgeting and investing.

Book Length: 180 pages

Ideal For: Anyone feeling stuck in a cycle of anxiety, overspending, avoidance, or guilt about money; those who want to shift their mindset around money, not just their bank balance.

“Money is emotional—always. It’s not about more money but healing the beliefs that hold you back.”

DAILY VISUAL

Nvidia > India

Want more? Visualize the markets with Carbon Finance

PRESENTED BY BLUEFLAME AI

Why 95% of AI Efforts Fail, and How Blueflame Clients Break the Mold

MIT’s latest report on GenAI adoption is a wake-up call: despite $30–40B in enterprise spend, 95% of companies report no measurable AI ROI.

But a small group is getting it right. MIT found that the top 5% of firms succeed by targeting vertical use cases, integrating AI into daily workflows, and partnering with domain experts; all principles Blueflame was built around.

For investment firms, Blueflame delivers, among other things:

• 60% faster diligence timelines

• 10 hours saved per CIM review

At an $8B PE firm, it delivered a 60% increase in outreach efficiency without adding headcount.

Blueflame integrates with CRMs, data providers, and file storage to embed AI into sourcing, diligence, and reporting workflows. Clients move beyond pilots and into real, repeatable ROI.

In a market where most AI investments stall, Blueflame puts investment firms in the winning 5%.

DAILY ACUMEN

Hunger

Hunger has a way of lying to us. It whispers from the vending machine, points toward protein bars in shiny wrappers, and convinces us that complexity must mean progress. But hunger, in its truest form, has always been simple.

One of the most reliable tests of hunger is this: Would I eat something plain, whole, and unadorned? Not salted caramel, not “cookies and cream,” but something elemental. If the answer is no, then what you feel isn’t hunger. It’s restlessness dressed up as appetite.

Modern “health” snacks are engineered to trick this test. They’re dense, fast, and overly sweet—engineered for impulse. But true food is slow. It demands chewing, patience, and presence. It doesn’t overwhelm; it satisfies.

Satiety isn’t purchased in a box—it’s grown from the ground. Our bodies evolved to thrive on what was once picked, peeled, or plucked, not processed, packaged, or powdered.

The mirror is simple: if a whole food doesn’t appeal, you aren’t hungry. You’re searching for distraction.

Learn to hear the difference, and you’ll never overeat again.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• The 9 best foods for energy

• 7 mindfulness techniques that reduce anxiety in minutes

• The 5 most popular ways Americans build new wealth 

• 5 signs your leadership style is holding you back

• What productivity experts do after returning from work after vacation

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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