Good Morning! Amazon scrapped plans to display tariff costs after a disgruntled Trump called Bezos. Meanwhile, Walmart says it won’t break out tariff impacts and is pledging to keep prices low. The initial estimate for first-quarter GDP drops today, with prediction market Kalshi forecasting a negative 0.6% reading.

American Airlines says it's suing JetBlue after partnership talks broke down. Companies are pulling guidance amid growing uncertainty—Snap became the latest casualty, with its stock down 14%. And over at Barclays, tequila shots are making a comeback.

Plus: Meta launched a standalone app to take on ChatGPT, Deloitte is betting big on return-to-office with a Hudson Yards office, and creator jobs are up 7.5x since the pandemic.

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SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Wall Street's 100 Days of Doom

The S&P 500 just wrapped up its worst first 100 days under a new U.S. president since Nixon in 1973, falling ~8% since Trump’s inauguration and erasing nearly $4 trillion in market value.

That’s a brutal start, especially considering markets typically rally early in a presidency. Since 1944, the S&P has averaged a 2.1% gain in a new president’s first 100 days. Obama? +8.4%. Trump (2017)? +5.0%. Biden? +8.5%.

Markets surged post-election on hopes of a pro-business Trump 2.0, but those hopes didn’t survive his April 2 tariff announcement. Investors panicked, and by mid-April, the S&P briefly dipped into bear market territory after shedding 10% in just two days. 

While Trump walked back the severity and gave countries a 90-day pause to renegotiate deals, some investors like Ray Dalio warn that the damage has been done.

Since the April 8 bottom, markets have bounced back. The S&P is up 11.5%, the Nasdaq nearly 14.4%, and the Dow 7.7%. But don’t break out the champagne just yet, strategists warn the rally is built on shaky ground.

As Truist’s co-CIO put it, there’s “less of a buffer” in the market now if more bad news drops. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson said the S&P will likely trade sideways unless we see a real tariff resolution or Fed rate cuts not tied to worsening economic data.

Wall Street’s not buying into the rally either, HSBC just became the 12th firm to cut its year-end S&P target, now forecasting 5,600 (down from 6,700). Meanwhile, job openings hit a 4-year low and consumer confidence is fading fast, with fears about job security reaching levels last seen during the Great Recession.

Takeaway: The market may be rebounding, but investor confidence hasn’t. This is one of the rare times in recent history where economic policy has been so broadly rejected by Wall Street. And with a recession on the horizon and consumer sentiment weakening, we may be in for a long summer.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Barclays invites you to discuss economics while doing tequila shots (FT)

• White House blasts Amazon over tariff cost report (CNBC)

• Walmart won't break out tariff costs and pledges low prices (Axios)

• Kalshi predicts -0.6% GDP growth in Q1 (Kalshi)

• Big Tech’s big week of tariff guidance (YF)

• Trump to sign executive order easing auto tariffs (CNN)

• Apollo says mass layoffs in trucking and retail coming (YF)

• Adidas warns it will raise prices on all U.S. products due to tariffs (CNBC)

• KKR and Capital Group launch funds targeting public, private investments (YF)

• American Airlines says it's suing JetBlue as partnership talks end (Axios)

• The Trump era has been a bust for private equity (YF)

• Duolingo to swap contractors for AI (Verge)

• Snap plunges 14% on inability to offer guidance (CNBC)

• Ray Dalio says it’s too late to escape tariff damage (CNN)

• HSBC is latest bank to cut S&P 500 outlook because of tariffs (CNBC)

• Meta launches standalone AI app to take on ChatGPT (CNBC)

• Deloitte commits to massive Manhattan office at Hudson Yards (WSJ)

• Consumer confidence sinks to lowest level since May 2020 (CNN)

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CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. stocks finished higher on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 logging its sixth straight daily gain. Most sectors ended in the green, led by cyclical names like materials and financials.

• Gains were supported by news that the U.S. will ease tariffs on the auto industry, including exemptions on steel and aluminum imports and reduced tariffs on auto parts, particularly those imported under USMCA rules from Canada and Mexico.

• Asian markets closed mostly higher overnight; European markets were also up despite a weak eurozone economic confidence reading.

• Bond yields moved lower, with the 2-year Treasury at 3.66% and the 10-year yield falling to 4.18%.

• The S&P 500 has now rallied 12% since its April 8 low, though it remains about 9% below the February 19 all-time high. Driving this rebound: improving signals around U.S. trade policy, including possible tariff relief on China, India, and South Korea.

• In addition to easing trade rhetoric, Q1 earnings have been solid, with S&P 500 earnings pacing for 9.7% YoY growth. But with over half the 19% drawdown recovered, a sustained move higher likely depends on actual trade deals, not just optimism.

• While consumer spending remained resilient through 2023–2024, policymakers face pressure to reduce uncertainty. If the U.S. reaches concrete trade agreements, it could help stabilize economic activity in the months ahead.

Economic Data Highlights

• JOLTS job openings (March): Fell to 7.2M, down from 7.5M prior month — lowest since pre-COVID, but still slightly above the number of unemployed.

• Consumer Confidence (April): Declined to 86, below expectations of 88 — continues to reflect inflation concerns and policy uncertainty.

• Labor Market View: Despite the steady drop from 2022 highs, the job market appears balanced, not yet weak.

• Forward Look: Further data later this week on PCE inflation, GDP, and nonfarm payrolls will offer more clarity on economic momentum.

Reported Earnings

• Spotify (SPOT) – Reported April 29, 2025 (Before Market Open): Beat on both revenue and EPS; monthly active users rose 19% YoY to 670M. Ad-supported revenue grew 18%.

• PayPal (PYPL) – Reported April 29, 2025 (After Market Close): Results beat expectations with strong performance in branded checkout and Venmo; TPV up 9% YoY.

• Snap (SNAP) – Reported April 29, 2025 (After Market Close): Missed on revenue but beat on EPS; daily active users up 10% YoY. Ad platform recovery slower than expected.

Earnings Today

• Meta Platforms (META) – Reporting April 30, 2025 (After Market Close): Investors watching for ad revenue performance and AI investments.

• Microsoft (MSFT) – Reporting April 30, 2025 (After Market Close): Focus on cloud services growth and AI monetization.

• Qualcomm (QCOM) – Reporting April 30, 2025 (After Market Close): Expected to report with attention on mobile chip demand and automotive segment expansion.

• Robinhood (HOOD) – Reporting April 30, 2025 (After Market Close): Focus on user growth, trading volumes, and progress on expanding into retirement and credit card products.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Him & Hers Health ($HIMS) +23% after announcing a GLP-1 partnership with Novo Nordisk.

• (+) Deutsche Bank ($DG) +4% because of profit surge, thanks to increased investment banking revenue.

• (–) Regeneron ($REGN) -7% after the company’s eye drug missed estimates.

Private Dealmaking

• Thunes, a payments business, raised $150 million

• Ligutrun, an observability startup, raised $70 million

• Nous Research, an open-source AI lab, raised $65 million

• Utilidata, a smart meters maker, raised $60 million

• Minimus, an application security startup, raised $51 million

• Navro, an international payments platform, raised $41 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Hubris Maximus

The rise, fall, and revival of the Caesar of Silicon Valley.

Elon Musk has cast himself as the savior of humanity, an altruistic force whose fortune is tied to noble pursuits from halting our dependence on fossil fuels to colonizing Mars.

Once frequently heralded as a modern-day Edison, Musk has taken up a new place in the public consciousness with his growing desire to disrupt not just the automotive and space industries but the policies that shape our nation.

Musk famously leads his companies from a bully pulpit, eroding guardrails and cutting through red tape whenever possible with little regard for the fallout as long as it serves his larger goals.

Many in his orbit have seen their lives upended or their careers throttled by believing in his utopian vision.

As the scale of the wagers he makes with his fortune and concerns about his credibility have grown in recent years, he alternately seems to be in complete command or on the verge of a meltdown.

Yet in the long run, he has only become wealthier, and now the stakes have risen.

Thanks to astute political maneuvering, Musk is no longer limited to gambling with a company’s bottom line or the livelihoods of his workers; he is poised to apply his uncompromising approach to business to the foundational rules and regulations that hold our society together.

At a moment when America’s tech gods are more influential than ever, Hubris Maximus is a cautionary tale about the pitfalls of lionizing magnetic leaders.

Washington Post journalist Faiz Siddiqui offers a gripping, detailed portrait of a singularly messy and lucrative period in Musk’s career, as well as a case study in the power of using one’s platform to shape the public narrative in a world that can’t turn away from its screens.

“A timely look at the mercurial billionaire now as well known in politics as in business.”

DAILY VISUAL

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DAILY ACUMEN

Introducing Investor Legends Series

Starting today and running through the end of May, we’re excited to launch a special series spotlighting iconic investors like Warren Buffett, Stanley Druckenmiller, and many others.

Each day, we’ll explore a different investor’s high-level approach, revealing how their groundbreaking strategies led to remarkable success, and connect their timeless wisdom to today’s stock market dynamics.

You’ll discover practical lessons to guide your own investing journey, helping you navigate challenges and seize opportunities in an ever-changing market. Join us daily to unlock the insights of these financial giants and elevate your wealth-building game!

We’re kicking off the series with the legendary Henry Singleton.

Henry Singleton, Teledyne’s visionary CEO, delivered an 18% annual return over 25 years, earning praise from Warren Buffett as America’s top business operator.

His 1960s acquisition strategy is a goldmine for today’s investors, especially as the S&P 500 rallies 11% from its April 8 low amid easing trade tensions.

With Teledyne’s P/E ratio soaring at 60, Singleton issued stock to acquire 130 companies with lower P/E ratios—often 10–20—effectively buying undervalued firms at a premium, boosting value.

For example, buying a company with a P/E of 15 using Teledyne’s P/E of 60 meant he paid less in equity value relative to earnings, a savvy move for today’s market where value hunting remains key amid tariff uncertainty and a projected Q1 2025 GDP drop of 2.5%.

In the 1970s, he shifted focus to cash flow, using his “Teledyne Return” metric over accounting gimmicks, and his 3,000% gain from share buybacks shows the power of repurchasing undervalued stock—a lesson for navigating potential recession risks.

Teledyne’s high P/E of 60 reveals his cost of equity, which you can calculate as the earnings yield (1 ÷ P/E).

So, 1 ÷ 60 = 1.67%. This low cost of equity meant Teledyne’s stock was a cheap funding tool for acquisitions—issuing shares at a high P/E to buy companies with lower P/Es maximized value creation.

For investors today, understanding a company’s cost of equity via its P/E helps gauge if it’s overvalued or a bargain for strategic moves like Singleton’s.

His approach—buy smart, focus on cash, and act boldly—offers timeless wisdom for thriving in uncertainty.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• How to hold your team accountable without micromanaging

• 6 ways to deal with disappointment strategically

• 7 bad email habits that make leaders look unprofessional

• BCG on the secret to building great leaders

• How to redefine success on your own terms

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