Good morning! Nvidia popped 5% on reports Trump may lift chip export bans. Google slipped after an Apple exec said AI will replace search. Trump isn’t budging on China tariffs, and the two sides may meet in Switzerland this weekend.

Ackman says Harvard is selling PE holdings at a painful discount. Disney soared 11% on strong earnings and announced its first Middle East theme park in Abu Dhabi.

Plus: Apollo is betting on a pay-to-play private debt strategy with Citi, UBS is partnering with General Atlantic, and how to tell if you are too nice at work.

Inspired by the efficiency of Tesla and Ford, BOXABL is bringing assembly-line automation to the trillion-dollar construction industry. Learn more about their current raise here.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Wait and See Mode

The Fed kept rates steady yesterday. It’s not because the economy is firing on all cylinders, but rather because Powell and company are still figuring out how to interpret Trump-era tariffs and economic mixed signals. 

The benchmark rate stays locked between 4.25% and 4.5%, but beneath the surface, things are getting messier. The central bank is officially in “wait and see” mode; Powell said it 11 times in his presser yesterday, because the economy’s flashing warning lights. 

The Fed’s caught in a classic bind: tariffs are inflationary, but they also risk slowing growth and spiking unemployment. And the core dilemma is, if inflation goes up, the Fed has to hold or hike, and if unemployment spikes, the Fed has to cut? But if both happen? That’s where stagflation comes into to play. 

With 10% tariffs slapped on nearly all imports and 145% on Chinese goods, Americans are now facing the highest average import taxes since the Great Depression. Domestic producers are raising prices “because they can”, cargo volumes from China are down 35%, businesses are hoarding inventory, and Main Street is waiting for clarity.

Powell admitted the Fed was late with cuts last year and doesn’t want to screw it up again. But cutting too soon could turbocharge inflation; cutting too late risks tanking the recovery. And with bond markets showing little fear of inflation, some analysts say the Fed’s now passively tightening and dragging its feet until it’s forced to cut hard later.

Trump’s turned up the pressure, publicly calling Powell “stubborn” and demanding cuts, then casually reminding everyone he can replace him “very quickly” (Powell’s term ends May 2026). Meanwhile, analysts are split. Some say the Fed’s too cautious, risking a sharper downturn if it waits until July or September. Others argue moving now could revive 2021-style inflation.

Takeaway: The Fed remains in a holding pattern, balancing conflicting signals. Powell is cautious not to move prematurely but with tariffs fueling inflation, growth showing signs of strain, and markets pricing in rate cuts despite elevated risks, the margin for policy error is narrowing quickly.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Nvidia shares climb on report Trump will end chip export restrictions (CNBC)

• Netflix's new look targets YouTube (LI)

• Toyota taps bankers for $42B buyout as soon as November (BB)

• Trump rejects any pullback on 145% China tariffs (Axios)

• Google shares sink after Apple says AI will replace search engines (CNBC)

• Ackman predicts private equity pain for $53B Harvard fund (BB)

• Treasury's Bessent says US should be 'premier destination' for digital assets (Fox)

• Griffin calls tariffs ‘painfully regressive tax,’ hitting working class hardest (CNBC)

• US, China to hold ice-breaker trade talks in Geneva (YF)

• Rite Aid stores to close or be sold to new owner in bankruptcy (Axios)

• Uber misses revenue expectations with trips up over 18% year-over-year (CNBC)

• Apollo bets on pay-to-play private debt tie up with Citi partnership (BB)

• UBS agrees private credit tie-up with General Atlantic (YF)

• Blackstone’s Jon Gray gives $125M to Tel Aviv medical school (BB)

• Clearlake seeks to triple credit assets under management to $100B (BB)

• The fastest-growing roles for grads (LI)

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CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. stocks rose Wednesday, buoyed by news that the U.S. and China have scheduled trade talks for this weekend in Geneva, Switzerland. While the outcome remains uncertain, any de-escalation in trade tensions could positively impact the economy and financial markets.

• Bond yields declined, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.28%, as investors anticipate potential easing from the Federal Reserve in response to global economic uncertainties.

• Asian markets closed higher, supported by China's policy measures aimed at mitigating tariff impacts. In contrast, European markets edged lower, despite eurozone retail sales growing 1.5% year-over-year in March, surpassing expectations.

• The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies, while WTI crude oil prices declined to near four-year lows due to ongoing concerns about oversupply from OPEC+.

Economic Data Highlights

• U.S.-China trade talks: Scheduled for this weekend in Geneva, aiming to address ongoing tariff disputes.

• 10-year Treasury yield: Decreased to 4.28%, reflecting investor expectations of potential Fed rate cuts.

• Eurozone retail sales (March): Increased by 1.5% year-over-year, exceeding the forecasted 1.4% rise.

• WTI crude oil: Dropped to near four-year lows amid persistent oversupply concerns.

Reported Earnings

• Uber Technologies (UBER) – Reported May 7: Delivered strong year-over-year revenue growth; however, gross bookings slightly missed expectations due to economic uncertainties and currency headwinds. ​

• Walt Disney Company (DIS) – Reported May 7: Posted robust quarterly results, driven by strong performance in domestic theme parks and streaming services. The company raised its full-year profit forecast and announced plans to open a new theme park in Abu Dhabi. ​

• Arm Holdings (ARM) – Reported May 7: Achieved record quarterly revenue; however, the company's outlook for the next quarter fell short of analyst expectations, citing uncertainties in licensing deals and global trade tensions. ​

Earnings Today

• Shopify Inc. (SHOP) – Reporting May 8 (Before Market Open): Investors anticipate insights into the company's e-commerce platform performance amid evolving consumer behaviors. ​

• Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) – Reporting May 8 (After Market Close): Market participants are keen to assess the impact of recent cryptocurrency market volatility on the company's trading volumes and revenues. 

• Pinterest Inc. (PINS) – Reporting May 8 (After Market Close): Analysts expect updates on user engagement trends and monetization strategies, particularly in light of recent advertising market dynamics. ​

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Charles River Laboratories ($CRL) +19% after the pharmaceutical company lifted its full-year guidance.

• (+) Disney ($DIS) +11% because of strong parks, streaming results.

• (–) Alphabet ($GOOGL) -8% after concerns that AI could replace search engines.

Private Dealmaking

• NewLimit, a longevity drug startup, raised $130 million

• Unrivaled Sports, a youth sports group, raised $120 million

• Finom, a neobank for SMBs, raised $105 million

• ReNew Energy Global, an Indian solar company, raised $100 million

• Toloka, a data solutions business, raised $72 million

• OX Security, an application security startup, raised $60 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Power and Prediction

Artificial intelligence (AI) has impacted many industries around the world—banking and finance, pharmaceuticals, automotive, medical technology, manufacturing, and retail.

But it has only just begun its odyssey toward cheaper, better, and faster predictions that drive strategic business decisions. 

When prediction is taken to the max, industries transform, and with such transformation comes disruption.

This sets the stage for a flourishing of new decisions and has profound implications for system-level innovation.

Redesigning systems of interdependent decisions takes time—many industries are in the quiet before the storm—but when these new systems emerge, they can be disruptive on a global scale. Decision-making confers power.

In industry, power confers profits; in society, power confers control. This process will have winners and losers, and the authors show how businesses can leverage opportunities, as well as protect their positions.

Filled with illuminating insights, rich examples, and practical advice, Power and Prediction is the must-read guide for any business leader or policymaker on how to make the coming AI disruptions work for you rather than against you.

“Disruption resulting from the proliferation of AI is coming. The authors of the bestselling Prediction Machines can help you prepare.”

DAILY VISUAL

S&P 500 Exposure to China

PRESENTED BY HEBBIA

Delegate Your Diligence

Finance professionals need tools that work as hard as they do. Hebbia’s Matrix delivers powerful solutions to streamline your workflow and give you a competitive edge. Here’s how top firms use Hebbia:

• Summarize 200+ earnings calls annually without breaking a sweat.

• Review offering memorandums 5x faster to keep pace with changing markets.

• Identify red flags, compare risks, and extract critical terms in minutes.

• Turn diligence notes into IC-ready investment memos.

Whether you’re tracking opportunities, managing risk, or drafting IC memos, Hebbia helps finance, real estate, and legal teams get more done in less time, without sacrificing quality.

DAILY ACUMEN

Legends Series: Hetty Green

In an era dominated by railroad barons and oil tycoons, Hetty Green quietly built one of the largest fortunes in America—by staying calm when others panicked.

Known as the “Witch of Wall Street,” Green turned a modest inheritance into what would be over $2 billion today, thanks to one core strategy: stay liquid, wait for fear, and pounce. 

During the Panic of 1873 and later crises, Green hoarded cash while others overleveraged.

When banks and businesses were desperate, she lent at high interest—or bought assets for pennies on the dollar.

She famously dressed frugally and lived modestly, but her financial instincts were razor sharp.

In 2025, her playbook feels eerily relevant. Bond yields sit at 4.2%. Oil prices are falling. Volatility is rising. Sectors like energy and tech have pulled back sharply. Investors are nervous.

Green’s message? That’s when the real money is made.

Her edge wasn’t timing—it was temperament.

In an age of FOMO and fast money, Hetty Green reminds us: liquidity is power, and patience is a weapon.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Whoop’s strength trainer review

• Are you too nice at work?

• 9 tips to make your work calendar less overwhelming

• A 5-minute workout to boost muscle strength

• 4 desk upgrades that can improve your productivity

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Memes of the Day

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