Good Morning! Advising on AI and tech now makes up 40% of McKinsey’s revenue. European bank stocks hit their highest level since 2008 on higher interest rate income. Meanwhile, Vegas tourism is down 11.3%, possibly flashing a recession signal.

Proposed 39% tariffs on Swiss imports could tack on $1,000 to $9,500 to Rolex Submariner models. Perella Weinberg is acquiring secondaries advisory firm Devon Park, and Goldman AM is looking to buy the U.S. parent of Häagen-Dazs for $17B.

Plus: Vanguard expects stocks to return just 3.3%–5.3% annually over the next decade, Blackstone spent $11M last year on Steve Schwarzman’s security, and flying private is now the top status symbol of real wealth.

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SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Trump’s Numbers Game

The Bureau of Labor Statistics dropped a brutal jobs report on Friday…and the data showed a clear labor market slowdown. July saw just 73,000 jobs added (the weakest hiring month since the pandemic) and the BLS revised away over 250,000 jobs from May and June combined.

Then, in an extraordinary move, President Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer just hours after the report was released. He claimed, without evidence, that the data was “rigged” to make him look bad.

Markets were spooked. The BLS might be boring and usually flies under the radar, but its data is foundational to everything from Fed rate decisions to mortgage pricing. Markets rely on consistent, credible inputs to assess risk and price assets.

If presidents can remove career officials for delivering unfavorable data, it opens the door to cherry-picked stats, politically motivated growth numbers, and a breakdown in investor trust.

Markets can handle bad news. What they can’t handle is uncertainty… and this move injected a whole lot of it.

On the same day, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler announced she’s stepping down early, effective August 8. That gives Trump another vacancy to fill, and he’s likely to nominate someone aligned with his push for aggressive rate cuts.

Takeaway: Lowering rates has been a focus of Trump, even though a move to do so typically steps outside of the President’s authority. The BLS and the Fed are two pillars of the same operating system: one produces the data, the other makes the calls. And if you can’t trust the data, you can’t trust the diagnosis. Expect more turbulence ahead as Trump continues to clash with Jerome, Erika and co.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Blackstone emerges as frontrunner to buy Enverus (YF) 

• McKinsey sees AI as an existensial threat (WSJ)

• Trump shocks Swiss watch dealers and collectors with new tariff (BB)

• European bank shares hit highest level since 2008 (FT)

• Las Vegas posts an 11.3% drop in visitor count in June (8News)

• Goldman Sachs poised to buy into ice cream maker Froneri for $17B (YF)

• Blackstone paid $11M for Steve Schwarzman’s security in 2024 (PIO)

• Berkshire Hathaway reports 4% drop in operating earnings in Q2 (CNN)

• Goldman told clients to go long copper day before price plunge (BB)

• ESPN agrees to acquire NFL Media properties including RedZone (YF)

• AI audit is coming to hotel room checkouts (CNBC)

• Centerbridge says private credit has real place in 401(k)s (BB)

• Philz Coffee close to closing deal to sell to private equity firm for $145M (ML)

• Jane Fraser on hunt to put the old Citi back together (NYP)

• Tesla ordered to pay millions over deadly Autopilot crash (Axios)

• Access to 401(k)s couldn’t come at a better time for private equity (Hill)

• Perella Weinberg buying secondaries advisory firm Devon Park (Axios)

• Restaurants adding dozens of spicy menu items for younger diners (CNBC)

• Palantir signed a $10B software and data contract with the US Army (CNBC)

• Big Tech is on track to spend nearly $400B on AI CapEx this year (WSJ)

• AMD raised the price of its high end AI chip by nearly 70% (IBD)

• Amazon will pay New York Times $20M per year to use its content for AI (WSJ)

• Alphabet and Nvidia in talks to fund Vast Data at a $30B valuation. (Reuters)

• How flying on a private jet became the no. 1 marker of real wealth (WSJ)

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CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Equity markets fell as new, sweeping tariffs weighed on sentiment, and underwhelming jobs data added to the caution

• Nasdaq led the decline, while the S&P 500 and Dow also closed lower

• Amazon dropped ~8% on disappointing guidance; Apple reversed earlier gains despite solid revenue results

• The U.S. dollar weakened, and bond yields slid, with the 10-year Treasury yield down to the low 4% range amid increasing rate-cut expectations

Economic Data Highlights

• Nonfarm payrolls rose just 73,000 in July, with prior months revised down 258,000, bringing the three-month average to 35,000; the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%

• Wage growth remains firm, supporting household income despite slower hiring

• Soft labor data pushed the odds of a September Fed rate cut to roughly 94%, with markets now pricing in two full cuts by year-end

Reported Earnings

• Chevron (CVX) reported better-than-expected earnings, though net income declined; production rose and the Hess acquisition contributed to results

• ExxonMobil (XOM) exceeded expectations despite a decline in net income, helped by strong output and solid performance in downstream and chemical businesses

• Moderna (MRNA) posted a sharp loss, but beat estimates due to cost controls; revenue declined and the company trimmed full-year guidance

Earnings Today

• ON Semiconductor (ON) – Investors will look at updates on auto and industrial chip demand, as well as margin improvement efforts

• Palantir (PLTR) – Watch for commentary on U.S. government AI contract activity and commercial growth trends

• HIMS & Hers Health (HIMS) – Key metrics include subscriber expansion and operating leverage in the telehealth business

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Reddit ($RDDT) +17% after the social media company announced strong daily active user growth.

• (+) Moderna ($MRNA) -7% because the pharmaceutical company cut guidance.

• (–) Coinbase ($COIN) -17% after an earnings miss; thawing crypto market.

Private Dealmaking

• OpenAI raised $8.3 billion at $300 billion valuation

• Anaconda, a provider of AI dev tools, raised $150 million

• fal, an AI infrastructure company, raised $125 million

• Reka, a multi‑modal AI model builder, raised $110 million

• Noma Security, an AI agent security platform, raised $100 million

• Safe Security, a cyber risk management platform, raised $70 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH

Real Estate Digest

Need help with real estate? Our official partner, Nest Seekers International, can help you buy, sell, rent, or invest, anywhere in the world. Get in touch here.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate remained unchanged for the fourth straight week, holding within a tight range. Steady economic growth, easing home prices, and rising inventory levels offer encouraging signs for both buyers and sellers.

Latest News

• NYC home values: Will prices drop or have they stabilized

• US housing market’s price growth slows for fourth straight month

• US housing market posts worst spring selling season in 13 years

• Home prices drop in 33 major metros

New Listings

• 335 West 38th Street New York, NY: 3 Bed / 3 Bath – $4.0M

• 18 Gramercy Park South Apt: M1 New York, NY: 2 Bed / 3.5 Bath – $5.6M

• 2200 PGA Boulevard North Palm Beach, FL: 4 Bed / 4 Bath – $9.1M

• 22 Terrace Ct Old Westbury, NY: 6 Bed / 6.5 Bath – $8.7M

• Villa Hummingbird, Saint James Barbados: 5 Bed / 5.5 Bath – $3.3M

• 28836 Gignese VB Gignese, Piedmont Italy: 8 Bed / 8 Bath – $2.2M

BOOK OF THE DAY

Vera, or Faith

Description: A darkly comedic and poignant near-future tale told through the eyes of 10-year-old Vera Bradford-Shmulkin. Precocious, anxious, and half-Korean/half-Jewish, Vera navigates a dystopian America with satire and sincerity—from family dysfunction and school pressures to mandatory AI surveillance and racially biased voting laws. Her inner diary and smart-aleck commentary bring humor to a society unraveling.

Rating:
Amazon 4.4 / 5
Goodreads 4.0 / 5

Book Length: 256 pages

Ideal For: Fans of speculative satire, dystopian fiction, coming-of-age stories, and novels with political edge—especially readers who appreciated What Maisie Knew, Prophet Song, or Henry James–inspired narratives.

“Vera, with her earnestness, sweetness, vulnerability and determination, will win over the most hard‑hearted reader. In short, you may read this clever and surprising novel in one sitting—and then read it again.” — Bookreporter review

DAILY VISUAL

It’s Zuck’s World

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DAILY ACUMEN

Getting Lucky

Everyone wants to get lucky. Few are willing to make themselves findable.

But here’s the uncomfortable truth:
Luck doesn’t show up when you’re “ready.” It shows up when you’re visible.

Not when your website is perfect.
Not after you finally update your LinkedIn bio.
Not once you finish tweaking that cold email for the 17th time.

It shows up when you're in motion.
Posting that rough draft.
Showing up to that happy hour.
Replying to that podcast DM even if it has 11 listeners.

Because the resume handed out in the Lehman lobby beats the one still saved as a PDF.

The world rewards exposure + persistence, not quiet perfection.

Put your work online. Say yes more often. Walk into rooms before you feel ready.

In markets, optionality is priceless. In life, it’s built by surfacing.

Let them know you exist.
Let them underestimate you.

Then let your follow-through do the talking.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• How strength training can help you live a happier, healthier life

• 4 signs to identify someone with strong leadership skills

• 14 productivity hacks to regain control

• How 9 bosses optimize their sleep routine

• The anxious leader

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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