Good Morning! Oppenheimer raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 7,100 (from 5,950), signaling ~11% upside. IPO activity is heating up, Figma and PE-backed Firefly Aerospace set ranges at $18.8B and $5.5B valuations.

Brown University is borrowing $500M via private credit. Activist investor Ricky Sandler is rallying donors to give $25K or more to oppose Zohran Mamdani’s NYC mayoral run.

Plus: Carlyle named three co-presidents, Dubai saw a 32% jump in new investment firms, and Jamie Dimon says fintech middlemen like Plaid are ‘massively taxing’ its systems with unnecessary pings.

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SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Tragedy at Blackstone

Wall Street was shaken Monday evening by a tragic act of violence in the heart of Midtown Manhattan. A 27‑year‑old gunman, Shane Devon Tamura, entered the lobby of 345 Park Avenue (home to tenants including Blackstone, the NFL, and KPMG) armed with an AR‑style rifle and wearing body armor.

He opened fire just before 6:30 p.m., fatally shooting NYPD Officer Didarul Islam, who was on a private security detail, and three civilians. One additional person remains in critical condition, and others suffered injuries while trying to flee.

Tamura then took an elevator to the 33rd floor, also occupied by Blackstone, where he killed another individual before dying from a self-inflicted gunshot wound. Authorities confirmed he acted alone. As of now, no political or ideological motive has been established, though the investigation is ongoing.

The attack triggered a massive emergency response. Park Avenue between 50th and 55th Streets was shut down, and building occupants were ordered to shelter in place. Some employees barricaded doors with conference room tables and desks (Blackstone 32^nd floor pictured above), waiting hours for the all-clear.

Although the building houses Blackstone’s global headquarters, there is currently no indication that any Blackstone employees were among the victims. Media reports have not linked any of the fatalities or injuries specifically to Blackstone staff, though details are still emerging.

Takeaway: This devastating incident is a sobering reminder that violence can erupt anywhere, even inside the headquarters of the world’s most powerful institutions. While Blackstone employees were not physically harmed, the emotional toll is profound. As we await further details, the focus must remain on workplace safety, mental health, and healing. Our thoughts and prayers are with the victims and their families during this heartbreaking time.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Wall Street just got a new high-water target for the S&P 500 (YF) 

• Firefly Aerospace sets IPO range that would value rocket maker at $5.5B (CNBC)

• Figma eyes IPO valuation of $18.8B (YF)

• Brown University snags $500M loan after warning of financial issues (BB)

• NYC investor asking for $25,000 to oppose Zohran Mamdani (BB)

• Carlyle’s Schwartz names co-presidents, solidifying top ranks (BB)

• Hedge funds, wealth firms fuel Dubai’s record growth as finance hub (BB)

• JPMorgan says fintech middlemen are ‘massively taxing’ its systems (CNBC)

• Tesla signed a $16.5 billion chip contract with Samsung Electronics (CNBC)

• Deutsche is losing its edge in leveraged finance deals (BB)

• Wall Street is rewriting the rules of Bitcoin trading (BB)

• BlackRock's Panama ports deal gets more complicated (Axios)

• Robinhood says tragedy retail can’t tap private markets (BB)

• EU-US trade deal could add up to $19B in pharma industry costs (YF)

• Trump: Global baseline tariff will likely be 15% to 20% (CNBC)

• Boeing CEO Ortberg's turnaround plan expected to roll on (YF)

• Meta glasses boost Ray-Ban Maker EssilorLuxottica (BB)

• Private equity gets bullish on natural gas fired power plants (WSJ)

• Tariff revenue has netted $20 billion so far (Axios)

• Investors celebrate trade deals inking higher tariffs (Axios)

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CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Stocks finished mixed after the U.S. and EU reached a long-awaited trade agreement

• The Nasdaq closed at its 17th record high of the year, while the Dow slipped modestly

• The new deal sets 15% tariffs on most EU imports, helping avoid a broader trade war

• The U.S. dollar surged, marking its strongest daily gain since May, with notable strength against the euro

• Bond yields rose modestly ahead of this week’s Fed decision

• Oil prices climbed as the U.S. shortened its deadline for Russia to end its war in Ukraine or face new sanctions

Economic Data Highlights

• Tariff-related uncertainty is easing, with the EU agreeing to purchase $750B in U.S. energy and invest $600B in U.S. infrastructure

• The agreement lowers threatened tariffs from 30% to 15%, though steel and aluminum will still face 50% tariffs

• Pharma and semiconductor tariffs remain undecided

• The U.S. and China are expected to extend their tariff truce by 90 days, with meetings underway in Sweden

• Markets are quiet ahead of key events: Fed rate decision (Wednesday), Q2 GDP, and July jobs report later this week

Reported Earnings

• Waste Management (WM) reported EPS of $1.92, slightly above estimates; revenue beat expectations on solid volume growth and pricing

• Nucor (NUE) reported EPS of $2.60, in line with expectations; revenue rose YoY but margins were pressured by higher input costs

• Tilray Brands (TLRY) reported EPS of $0.02, beating estimates; revenue declined slightly as cannabis sales remained soft

Earnings Today

• PayPal (PYPL) – Watch for payment volume growth and progress in cost-cutting initiatives

• Spotify (SPOT) – Focus on subscriber trends and profitability improvements

• UPS (UPS) – Key read on e-commerce shipping volumes and margin recovery in U.S. ground segment

Movers & Shakers

• (+) PagerDuty ($PD) +7% after TD Cowen upgraded the cloud computing stock on acquisition potential.

• (+) Nike ($NKE) +4% because of an upgrade by JPMorgan ahead of the soccer World Cup.

• (–) Heineken NV ($HEINY) -10% after tariff uncertainties spook investors.

Private Dealmaking

• Brookfield and Birch Hill acquired First National Financial for $2.2 billion

• Brightstar Capital Partners acquired 50% of Arden University for over $1 billion

• NiCE acquired Cognigy for $955 million

• HSBC sold its Uruguay operations to BTG Pactual for $175 million

• Gupshup, a conversational AI company, raised $60 million

• LegalOn Technologies, a contract review AI platform, raised $50 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Starting a Startup

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DAILY VISUAL

Households Age 55 and Above Own a Growing Share of Household Assets

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ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• The participation trophy culture of adulthood

• Simple social rituals like eye contact and small talk are psychologically powerful

• 5 small hacks to improve your wealth, productivity, and happiness

• Why soft skills are the key to business success

• 3 simple tools that transformed my productivity

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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