Good morning! Flipping Roblox games is turning some teenagers into millionaires. Jamie Dimon warns that the market is ignoring red flags and mispricing risks of a slowdown. Elizabeth Warren is pushing back on adding private equity to 401(k)s.

The AI poaching wars are heating up, with Google hiring Windsurf CEO Varun Mohan and others in a $2.4 billion AI talent deal. Elon’s SpaceX might invest $2 billion into his own xAI. And Goldman is battling Morgan Stanley for supremacy in Hong Kong.

Plus: Bad Bunny’s residency to generate $200M+ for Puerto Rico, why record highs are buying opportunities, and is waking up at 5am worth it?

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SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Trading > Banking (Again)

Wall Street’s investment bankers can’t seem to catch a break. For the 14th quarter in a row, investment banking is set to contribute less than 25% of the big banks’ Wall Street revenue, marking the worst dry spell in over a decade.

Traders, on the other hand, are keeping the lights on. The five biggest US banks, JPMorgan, BofA, Citi, Goldman, and Morgan Stanley, are expected to rake in ~$31 billion in trading revenue for Q2, roughly triple what investment banking will earn.

Trading revenue is forecast to jump nearly 10% year-over-year, while IB fees are headed the other way, projected to drop ~10% to $7.5 billion.

It’s been a rough hangover from the 2021 deal boom, with rising rates, geopolitical tensions, and political uncertainty keeping M&A and equity issuance in slow-mo. “I think 2025 is more or less done [for investment banking],” said Oppenheimer’s Chris Kotowski, though a burst of equity deals in the fall could still help the numbers.

Despite the gloom, investors remain hopeful for an IB rebound, with Goldman’s stock recently breaking the $700 mark for the first time. But the same political and economic calm that investors hope will spark more deals might also cool off the market volatility that’s been driving big profits for trading desks.

Earnings season kicks off next week: JPM and Citi report July 15, with BofA, Goldman, and Morgan Stanley following on the 16th. Analysts expect overall net income across the six biggest US banks to fall ~13% YoY, with JPMorgan staring down the steepest drop (-30%) after last year’s $8 billion one-time gain from Visa.

Takeaway: Good thing investment banks have traders making dough while bankers sit it out. Deals (and fees) will eventually come back, it’s only a matter of time. With markets hitting record highs and even more rate cuts expected, dealmaking might come back sooner than you think. Until then, bankers will just have to keep perfecting their golf swing.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Roblox game buying frenzy is turning teens into millionaires (YF)

• Jamie Dimon says market ignores red flags (Axios)

• Can Paris’s banking elite withstand a New York onslaught? (FT)

• What goods may and may not be affected by Trump’s 35% tariff on Canada (YF)

• Wall Street may be enabling Trump’s tariffs (Axios)

• Elizabeth Warren pushes back on plan to get private equity into 401(k)s (CNN)

• Google to pay $2B for Windsurf tech (WSJ)

• Elon Musk’s SpaceX might invest $2B in Musk’s xAI (YF)

• Bad Bunny’s residency is expected to be a financial boon for Puerto Rico (CNN)

• Private credit firms pitch more leverage to win over deals (BB)

• Nvidia's Jensen Huang catches up with Warren Buffett in net worth (CNBC)

• Kraft Heinz explores grocery business spinoff worth up to $20 billion (YF)

• TikTok loses bid to dismiss lawsuit alleging its 'addictive design' (CNBC)

• Tesla, EV buyers need to act now if they want $7,500 tax credit (YF)

• Goldman battles Morgan Stanley for Hong Kong supremacy (BB)

• Why record highs are buying opportunities (Axios)

• Bankers demand 50% pay hikes in India’s wealth hiring boom (BB)

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CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. equities closed lower Friday following more tariff announcements from the Trump administration

• Canadian markets also slipped, ending the day down 0.3%

• Bond yields rose, with the 2-year Treasury up 2 bps and the 10-year yield up 7 bps, steepening the yield curve

• The U.S. dollar strengthened modestly; WTI oil rebounded from Thursday’s steep decline

Economic Data Highlights

• President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian goods, citing issues around fentanyl and dairy

• Tariffs to apply from August 1 on goods not compliant with USMCA; energy products will remain at 10%

• The White House also hinted at a blanket tariff hike to 15%-20%, up from the current 10% baseline

• An EU tariff letter is expected soon, with new rates to apply August 1 unless a deal is struck

• While markets mostly shrugged off earlier tariff news, the growing scope of potential hikes raises new economic risks

Reported Earnings

• No significant earnings reported

Earnings Today

• Fastenal (FAST) – Reporting July 14 (Before Market Open): Investors are watching industrial demand trends and gross margin pressures amid supply chain headwinds and tariff impacts

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Levi Strauss ($LEVI) +11% after the jean-maker beat expectations.

• (+) AMC Entertainment ($AMC) +11% because Wedbush upgraded the movie theater stock to outperform.

• (–) Penn Entertainment ($PENN) -8% after the release of weak regional gaming revenue data.

Private Dealmaking

• Flutter bought a 5% stake in FanDuel for $1.76 billion

• Bilt, a rent credit card provider, raised $250 million at $10.8B valuation

• Also, a micromobility startup, raised $200 million

• Harmonic AI, an AI startup, raised $100 million

• Hearst bought DallasNews for $75 million

• RealSense, a robotics computer vision group, raised $50 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH

Real Estate Digest

Need help with real estate? Our official partner, Nest Seekers International, can help you buy, sell, rent, or invest, anywhere in the world. Get in touch here.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage inched higher this week, snapping a five-week streak of declines, after a stronger-than-expected jobs report. Despite ongoing affordability pressures, both home purchase and refinance applications are picking up, rising 25% and 56% respectively from this time last year.

Latest News

• NYC renters are scrambling for shelter this summer

• Manhattan rents hit another record with more increases to come

• First time home buyers are MIA. Landlords are the winners

New Listings

• 180 Front St Apt: 17E Brooklyn, NY: 3 Bed / 3 Bath - $3.3M

• 21 Rady Ln East Quogue, NY: 4 Bed / 4.5 Bath - $3.0M

• 6312 Webster Ave, West Palm Beach, FL: 3 Bed / 2 Bath - $950K

• Carrer de Fontanella, Barcelona, Catalunya, Spain: 2 Bed / 1 Bath - $1.1M

• Mougins La Roquette-sur-Siagne, Alpes-Maritimes, France: 5 Bed / 6 Bath - $8.1M

BOOK OF THE DAY

For Such a Time as This

Description:
A memoir and leadership guide, tracing Marie‑Ange’s journey from childhood in Cameroon to roles at Meta, Amazon, and Intel. She shares how grit, resilience, and purpose propelled her across continents and cultures, guided by her PURPOSE framework: Preparation, Unwavering Faith, Resilience, Purpose‑Driven Action, Others‑Focused Leadership, Steadfast Boldness, Excellence.

Rating: Amazon: 5.0 / 5 (28 reviews)

Book Length: 212 pages

Ideal For:
Aspiring leaders, tech professionals, immigrants, students, and anyone seeking inspiration from someone who overcame imposter syndrome, cultural shock, and systemic barriers—while leading with values, courage, and purpose.

“Inspiring and deeply authentic! …A must-read for professionals, immigrants, and anyone seeking meaning and impact.”

DAILY VISUAL

Nvidia Hits $4 Trillion

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DAILY ACUMEN

Happiness

“Money, life, luck, and happiness are 4 kids at the same table, constantly stealing fries off each other's plates, and the older I get the more I realize you need to referee without ruining the meal.

Money is loud and impatient, but it calms down once you treat it like a utility bill instead of a trophy.

Stack a cashflow engine (agency, saas, mobile app, boring biz etc) that pays for your curiosity and it will stop demanding costume changes every quarter.

Life is the messy art project in the middle; it looks like chaos from two feet away and museum-worthy from twenty, so zoom out often and remember the uglier brushstrokes are what make the piece feel alive.

Luck is the quiet kid flicking paper airplanes; you cannot summon him on command, but you can build a wide runway by shipping half-baked prototypes, replying to cold emails, and sitting in rooms you technically have no credential for...surface area is luck's love language.

Happiness is the shy one who only speaks when the other three settle down; she shows up when your calendar matches your values, when your yes is clean and your no is kind, and when tonight's dinner is something you can taste instead of scroll through.

The game is learning that the best meals happen when you stop counting fries and start enjoying the chaos.

Let them be loud, let them steal, let them make a mess.

Your job isn't to control the table, it's to make sure everyone gets fed.

And maybe that's how you live a happier, healthier life. It's a beautiful thing.”

— Greg Isenberg

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• 8 habits of people who maintain an attractive body without going to gym

• Is waking up at 5am worth it?

• Why great leaders struggle to share their ideas

• How the Lower East Side is becoming a fashion hub

• The high agency mindset

• How millions are losing weight without diets

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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