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🍋 The Next Bull Market?

🍋 The Next Bull Market?

Plus: Bitcoin up ~50% off April lows, hits $112K ATH, generational bag fumble from Apple as Jony Ive joins OpenAI, and NYC's hottest new workout class.

Short Squeez
May 22, 2025

Together With

"The market is amoral. It doesn’t care who you are. You’re a trade.” — Jamie Dimon

Good morning! Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $112K, up ~50% from its April lows. Meanwhile, stocks dipped as bond yields spiked, with markets reacting to reports of Trump’s looming tax bill.

OpenAI acquired Apple design legend Jony Ive’s (pre-product) startup for $6.4 billion to build new AI products. UnitedHealth is in hot water for paying off nursing homes to reduce hospital transfers, and Blackstone and CVC are no longer part of a group to invest in NFL teams.

Plus: Blackstone bought $1M worth of Bitcoin in its first crypto bet, running up the Vessel is the hottest new workout class, and Uber’s CEO on the personality trait that leads to luck.

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SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

The Next Bull Market?

After years of trailing U.S. equities, emerging markets may finally be turning a corner. Over the past 15 years, EM stocks have returned just ~10%, while the S&P 500 soared more than 400%. But in 2025, the tables may be starting to turn: EM equities are up 10% YTD, while the S&P is flat.

Institutional capital is taking note and rotating in: Morgan Stanley, AQR, Bank of America, and Franklin Templeton are all betting that a weakening dollar, rising U.S. deficits, and eroding faith in Treasuries could drive sustained EM outperformance.

AQR forecasts 6% annualized local-currency returns for EM over the next decade, ahead of the S&P’s projected 4%. Morgan Stanley sees FX tailwinds accounting for a third of returns, while BofA has declared EMs the “next bull market.”

Fund flows are following the thesis: U.S.-listed EM ETFs saw nearly $2B in inflows last week alone.

Beyond macro tailwinds, the fundamentals are also improving for emerging markets: lower external debt, favorable debt-to-GDP ratios, and strengthening domestic sectors in banking, healthcare, and electrification. Franklin Templeton is even pitching EM debt as a credible Treasury alternative in markets like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea.

Of course, EM isn’t without risk, political volatility, spotty earnings growth, and market inefficiencies still loom. But for investors seeking diversification, yield, and growth potential, EM may no longer be an afterthought.

Takeaway: For the first time in over a decade, emerging markets present a credible case for structural outperformance. With macro tailwinds in play, institutional capital flowing in, and healthier balance sheets across key economies, EM exposure could offer both upside potential and meaningful diversification. Just don’t bet your life savings on it.

HEADLINES

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CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

Stocks closed lower Wednesday, with the S&P 500 down 1.6% and the Russell 2000 falling over 2%, as a jump in long-term bond yields weighed on markets.
A weak 20-year Treasury auction pressured the bond market, pushing the 10-year yield to just under 4.6% and the 30-year to 5.08%, both at multi-week highs.
Defensive sectors led, while tech and small caps lagged amid rising rate concerns.
European markets finished flat, held back by a hotter-than-expected U.K. inflation report, while Asian markets were mixed overnight.
Reports from Capitol Hill indicate the House reconciliation bill could come to a vote before the weekend.

Economic Data Highlights

10-year Treasury yield: 4.6% – highest since early March
30-year Treasury yield: 5.08% – long-term rates continue to climb
Bond strategy: Favor 7–10 year maturities to lock in higher yields while managing exposure to long-duration volatility

Reported Earnings

Target (TGT) – Missed on earnings and revenue; lowered full-year guidance due to macro uncertainty.
Snowflake (SNOW) – Beat on revenue; shares declined on a cautious cloud consumption outlook.
Zoom Video Communications (ZM) – Results met expectations; guidance was subdued.

Earnings Today

Intuit (INTU) – Reporting May 23 (After Market Close): Focus on tax platform performance and small business demand.
Workday (WDAY) – Reporting May 23 (After Market Close): Investors watching enterprise software momentum and margin commentary.
Autodesk (ADSK) – Reporting May 23 (After Market Close): Key focus on design software subscriptions and large-enterprise deal momentum.

Movers & Shakers

(+) Canada Goose ($GOOS) +20% after the luxury jacket maker reported strong quarterly earnings.
(+) Xpeng ($XPEV) +13% because the Chinese EV maker announced narrowing losses.
(–) Palo Alto Networks ($PANW) -7% after the cybersecurity company reported slowing growth.

Private Dealmaking

OpenAI acquired io for $6.4 billion
Bain Capital invested $2.1 billion into Acrisure
Textainer bought Global Sea Containers for $1.75 billion
Airwallex, a payments firm, raised $300 million
Juvenescence, a biotech, raised $76 million
Gravitee, an API management startup, raised $60 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Surviving Wall Street

Surviving Wall Street: A Tale of Triumph, Tragedy and Timing portrays the dramatic transformation of the investment banking business in recent decades through the tumultuous saga of one firm (Greenhill & Co., a specialist in mergers and acquisitions) and one man (Scott Bok, the longtime CEO of that firm).

Written in the style of an adventure tale, this book is also a "coming of age" story for a naive young man who came to Wall Street―as thousands like him do each year―and managed to grab a front-row seat for a period of epic change.

A firsthand account of deals and dealmakers told from inside the boardroom, Surviving Wall Street will captivate those wanting to understand the dramatic evolution and expansion of Wall Street, as well as younger readers hoping to chart their own path to success in this Darwinian industry.

“M&A dealmaker's real-life adventure tale tells the story of a turbulent period on Wall Street.”

DAILY VISUAL

Trade Wars

short squeez visual smartphone shipments from China

Source: Chartr

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DAILY ACUMEN

Legends Series: Carl Icahn

Carl Icahn didn’t wait for value to unlock itself. He pried it open with a crowbar.

The original “corporate raider,” Icahn made his fortune identifying underperforming companies and forcing change—through proxy battles, board takeovers, and sheer willpower.

From TWA to Apple, his activist fingerprints are everywhere.

Icahn’s style isn’t for the timid. But his instinct is powerful: when capital is misallocated, there’s opportunity.

Today, some sectors—like telecom, energy, and media—are bloated with costs and sluggish growth.

Meanwhile, investors are chasing high-momentum names while ignoring companies with undervalued assets and sleepy boards.

Icahn’s approach reminds us: shareholder value doesn’t create itself—it often needs a spark.

As M&A chatter picks up in 2025 and boards get more scrutiny, the activist mindset may return in force.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

5 productivity hacks that will make you more productive at work
Uber CEO on the personality trait that leads to luck
We’ve been wrong about happiness. Here’s what philosophy says
Why 18 minutes a day can make you better than 95% of people
How to flourish –– even when you aren’t at your happiest

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

short squeez meme amrked all as read in outlook

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