Good morning! Tesla stock climbed after cryptic teaser videos hinted at a new car launch that could be coming today. Paul Tudor Jones says the “ingredients are in place” for a massive rally before a bull-market blow-off top. And Bain Capital is warning buyout firms to tread carefully as growth cools.

The IPO market is in limbo as shutdown fears freeze billions in deals. Nasdaq plans to tighten its listing standards after becoming the go-to exchange for penny-stock IPOs. Fifth Third Bancorp agreed to buy Comerica in a $10.9 billion deal, creating America’s ninth-largest bank.

Plus: the Ferrari-loving trader who burned Wall Street with an 11,000-to-1 bond bet, private equity’s “lending-power-of-three” playbook for mega-deals, how buyout firms now oversee drug-research ethics, and why Bill Ackman says he’s “uncancelable.”

Still building pitch decks manually? Farsight replicates full execution workflows, from CIMs to benchmarking, in minutes, not weeks.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

The AI Megadeal Loop

OpenAI just announced another monster hardware deal, this time with AMD. Shares surged as much as 40% intraday, briefly adding more than $60 billion in market value, before closing up about 23%. For a few hours, AMD was worth more than Coca-Cola and GE.

The deal itself is massive. OpenAI is buying 6 gigawatts of AMD’s new MI450 chips, which could mean tens of billions in revenue for AMD by 2027. In return, OpenAI gets warrants on up to 160 million AMD shares (roughly 10% of the company) at an exercise price of $0.01, vesting as OpenAI hits deployment and performance milestones.

To cash out the final tranche, AMD’s stock would need to hit $600, almost triple what it was trading at before the news.

A few years ago, that kind of move would’ve been the story of the year. Now it’s just another Monday. One-day pops of 30 to 40% are starting to feel routine as investors chase the next Nvidia. It’s less about fundamentals and more about who can stay ahead of the hype cycle.

Underneath all this is a new kind of market loop, circular megadeals. Nvidia started it with its $100 billion OpenAI commitment: it invests in OpenAI, OpenAI spends that money on Nvidia chips, Nvidia’s valuation spikes, and the cycle feeds itself.

It seems like every few weeks, we get another hundred-billion-dollar AI infrastructure deal. $300 billion with Oracle. $100 billion with Nvidia. And now AMD’s turn. The AMD deal is a little less circular. OpenAI can’t just flip its AMD gains into more chips, but the logic’s the same. If AMD crushes it, OpenAI’s warrants soar. If OpenAI builds faster, AMD’s revenue takes off. Both sides are incentivized to keep the story going.

Takeaway: The AI arms race isn’t about innovation anymore. It’s about velocity, who can lock up the most gigawatts and billions the fastest. These circular deals are fueling it, and everyone’s making money as long as the music keeps playing. But the vibe on Wall Street is starting to feel like 1999: vendor financing, circular cash flow, and valuations that rely on everyone buying from each other forever. The AI boom is real, but the bubble loop is getting louder.

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• Excel backups with cell comments and firm-style formatting

It doesn’t summarize; it executes. Analysts use it to turn weeks of work into minutes, without sacrificing quality or control.

See how Farsight replaces manual deck work.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Tesla stock jumps over Musk cryptic X post teasing new product (YF)

• Paul Tudor Jones says “ingredients are in place” for a massive rally before the bull-market blow-off top (CNBC)

• Bain Capital says buyout firms must be more cautious as growth slows (FT)

• IPO market in limbo as shutdown threat freezes billions (YF)

• Nasdaq has become the market of choice for dubious penny stock IPOs (WSJ)

• Fifth Third Bancorp to acquire Comerica in $10.9 billion all-stock deal (CNBC)

• Private equity taps “lending power of three” to finance mega-deals (BB)

• How private equity oversees the ethics of drug research (NYT)

• Bill Ackman says he’s uncancelable (WSJ)

• Anthropic lands largest enterprise deal with Deloitte (CNBC)  

• JPMorgan replaces European banking boss who was doing job from NYC (FT)

• Galaxy Digital jumps after launching retail app to rival Robinhood (CNBC)

• Midtown Manhattan’s office conversions reshape NYC’s real estate future (BB)

• Wall Street thinks the best is yet to come for the economy (Axios)

• Inside the bank where almost every employee is a gig worker (WSJ)

• Soho House slashes hundreds of members amid financial strain (Page Six)

• Startups are eating Big Food’s lunch (WSJ)

• Secondary fundraising stays strong through 2025 (WSJ)

• Jefferies earned undisclosed fees on First Brands ‘side letter’ financing (FT)

• Citi, Goldman, and MUFG among banks burned in $2.6 billion trade (BB)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Markets started the week mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher while the Dow slipped modestly

• Nasdaq rose 0.7%, led by gains in the technology sector after AMD announced an AI infrastructure deal with OpenAI

• 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.16%, remaining within its recent 4.0%–4.5% range

• Fed cut odds hold near 95% for October, with one or two more rate cuts likely this year

• Oil traded steady, while the U.S. dollar strengthened modestly

Economic Data Highlights

• Government shutdown enters second week, with nonessential services paused and 750k workers furloughed

• Shutdowns typically cause a 0.1%–0.2% GDP drag per week, though activity usually rebounds once funding resumes

• Potential for permanent layoffs and contractor losses could make this shutdown more disruptive than prior ones

• Growth may slow in Q4, but activity is expected to rebound in early 2026 if the shutdown ends within weeks

Reported Earnings

• Constellation Brands (STZ) – Reported stronger-than-expected revenue and reaffirmed full-year guidance, signaling resilient consumer demand

• AEHR Test Systems (AEHR) – Posted solid results with continued momentum in semiconductor test demand tied to AI investment

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD) +24% after the company announced its OpenAI partnership.

• (+) Figma ($FIG) +7% because Sam Altman touted ChatGPT integration with the company.

• (–) Applovin ($APP) -14% after an SEC probe over data collection practices.

Private Dealmaking

• Fifth Third Bancorp will buy Comerica for $10.9 billion

• Paramount acquired The Free Press for $150 million

• Scintil Photonics, a photonics startup for AI factories, raised $58 million

• Vibe.co, a streaming ad platform, raised $50 million

• Citymall, an e-grocery startup, raised $47 million

• Leo Cancer Care, a maker of radiation therapy devices, raised $40 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Choose Wisely

Description:
This book challenges the dominance of rational choice theory—the idea that every decision can be reduced to weighing costs, benefits, and probabilities. Schwartz and Schuldenfrei argue that this narrow model ignores context, values, and moral trade-offs. Instead, they propose decision-making should be guided by a “constellation of virtues”—a richer framework that embraces ambiguity, reflection, and meaning.

Book Length: 296 pages
Release Date: September 23, 2025

Ideal For: Scholars and practitioners of behavioral economics, psychology, philosophy, leaders and decision-makers who feel trapped by “data-only” models, and anyone wanting to make choices that align with both head and heart.

“We are not only utility maximizers… we seek virtues and meaning that cannot be reduced to quantitative metrics.”

DAILY VISUAL

Wealth Concentration Near Record High

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With deep integrations that automate up to 90% of compliance standards, Vanta saves you significant time and resources, letting you focus on growth and innovation. 

Download Vanta’s vendor risk assessment checklist and create a rubric for defining inherent risk with your third-party vendors.

DAILY ACUMEN

Skin in the Game

Advice without exposure is cheap.

The investor who says “buy” but owns nothing, the boss who preaches sacrifice while collecting bonuses, the politician with no personal risk—they’re gaming, not guiding.

Skin in the game creates honesty, clarity, and humility.

Traders cut losses faster when their own money’s on the line.

Leaders earn trust when they share downside with their teams.

If you want to know who to follow, check whose balance sheet is exposed.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• The dried fruit that improves sleep and boosts energy

• 4 executive presence tips for quiet professionals

• Discipline is overrated, here’s what people are doing instead

• Why self-understanding is your most valuable leadership asset

• What’s the cheapest time to fly to Europe

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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