Good Morning! Markets are bracing for impact as Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil. Futures are pointing to a volatile open, and Bitcoin dipped back below $100K.

Trump called Powell a “numbskull.” The Dallas Cowboys are giving their cheerleaders a 400% raise, JPMorgan is pushing toward $1 trillion in assets, and Accenture says consulting demand is in a slump.

Plus: Retail investors are ditching Big Tech, a Fed rate cut may come as soon as next month, Coatue’s 2030 market cap estimates for 40 top tech firms, and the most depressing jobs in America.

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SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

The $5B Deal Fee

Most bankers dream of landing a single 9-figure fee in their careers. According to FT, Steve McLaughlin might be sitting on multiple, with one potential payout of a staggering $5.8 billion.

McLaughlin, the founder of FT Partners, has built a reputation as fintech’s go-to dealmaker. And based on recent filings, his firm may be the most lucrative boutique you’ve never heard of.

FT Partners just raked in a $80 million advising on AvidXchange’s $2.2 billion sale to TPG: $39 million in fees, plus $41 million from equity they picked up during a 2021 contract reshuffle.

But that may pale in comparison to what could come next.

In Circle’s IPO filings, the company disclosed a terminated engagement letter with FT Partners that, if ruled valid, could entitle McLaughlin’s firm to 7–10% of IPO proceeds and future liquidity events. With Circle’s current market cap sitting at $58 billion, a 10% take would translate to a $5.8 billion fee.

Circle, for its part, says it properly terminated the agreement due to conflict clauses. FT Partners disagrees, and a federal court recently allowed their breach of contract case to move forward.

FT Partners has faced multiple fee disputes from former clients, including AlphaSense and Circle, who argue the firm’s “ironclad” contracts overreach.

But McLaughlin isn’t backing down. The firm’s model combines long-term advisory agreements, early-stage capital, and high-upside fee structures that resemble old-school merchant banking… with a 21st-century litigation budget.

Takeaway: The odds of FT Partners actually securing a $5.8 billion payout from Circle are slim, contract disputes at this scale rarely break in favor of the banker. But stranger things have happened. And if the courts do side with McLaughlin, he won’t just be fintech’s top rainmaker… he’ll be the most expensive banker in the history of M&A.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Oil to open higher as US strikes on Iran boost supply risk premium (YF)

• Iran backs closing Strait of Hormuz, which could spike oil prices (Axios)

• Investors set to head for safety as world awaits Iran's response (YF)

• Bitcoin drops below $100,000 after US strikes Iran nuclear sites (YF)

• Dallas Cowboys cheer squad gets 400% raise (Fortune)

• A look at Nvidia's AI investments (TC)

• How Nvidia evolved from a gaming startup to an AI giant (YF)

• JPMorgan Chase beefs ups mobile app as bank targets $1 trillion in assets (CNBC)

• Accenture posts higher profit but shares fall on booking decline (WSJ)

• Lululemon lays off corporate staff (YF)

• Fed Governor Waller says banks could cut rates as early as July (CNBC)

• Ordinary investors are souring on Big Tech (WSJ)

• AI is ushering in the tiny team era in Silicon Valley (BB)

• Tax breaks for tech giants' data centers mean less income for states (CNBC)

• Coatue released 2030 market cap estimates for 40 top tech firms (Coatue)

• Data breach exposed 16B passwords from Apple, Google, and Facebook (TS)

• Masa Son wants to build a $1T US AI Hub in Arizona with TSMC (BB)

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CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. equity markets finished lower on Friday as President Trump extended a decision on U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict by two weeks, allowing more time for negotiations.

• Energy and consumer staples stocks posted the largest gains, while communication and materials sectors led to the downside.

• In global markets, Asia finished mixed, with China’s central bank holding its 1-year loan prime rate at 3.0%, as expected.

• Europe traded higher despite a surprise decline in eurozone preliminary consumer confidence for June.

• The U.S. dollar declined, and WTI oil rose, as ongoing Middle East air strikes raised concerns about supply disruptions.

Economic Data Highlights

• Leading Economic Index (May): Fell 0.1% to 99.0, missing expectations to hold steady.

• Weak consumer expectations and ISM new orders drove the decline, while a rebound in the S&P 500 was a bright spot.

• The Conference Board signaled a slowdown, not a recession, projecting 1.6% GDP growth for 2025.

• Slowing growth amid trade and policy uncertainty may be offset by deregulation, tax cuts, and lower interest rates later this year.

Reported Earnings

• No significant earnings were reported on June 20.

Earnings Today

• No significant earnings scheduled for Monday, June 23.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Circle Internet Group ($CRCL) +20% after investors weigh the stablecoin GENIUS Act.

• (+) Kroger ($KR) +10% because the grocery company raised its full-year sales forecast.

• (–) Accenture ($ACN) -7% after the firm says CEOs are postponing hiring consultants due to uncertainty.

Private Dealmaking

• Haveli Investments bought Couchbase for $1.5 billion

• Bayview Asset Management bought Guild Holdings for $1.3 billion

• Tennr, a patient referral automation tools provider, raised $101 million

• Nabla, an AI assistant provider, raised $70 million

• Maven AGI, an AI agent developer, raised $50 million

• Traversal, an observability startup, raised $48 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH

Real Estate Digest

Need help with real estate? Our official partner, Nest Seekers International, can help you buy, sell, rent, or invest, anywhere in the world. Get in touch here.

Mortgage rates moved lower again this week and reached their lowest levels for the first time in a month. More inventory is aggressively making its way into the marketplace giving buyers who are tired of waiting on the sidelines ample opportunity to get into the marketplace.

Latest News

• What is the FARE Act and what does it mean for NYC rentals?

• Homeowners spend a whopping share of their income on their mortgage

• Sellers leave money on the table with privately held sold listings

• There are 500,000 more homes for sale than there are buyers

New Listings

• 21 W 17th St Apt: 11 New York, NY: 3 Bed / 2 Bath - $3.7M

• 207 Halsey St, Southampton, NY: 3 Bed / 2.5 Bath - $2.95M

• 177 SE 25th Rd, Miami, FL: 3 Bed / 3.5 Bath - $3.9M

• Saint-Tropez, Grimaud, Var, France: 5 Bed / 3 Bath - $9.09M

• Carrer Rocs de Sant Magí, Spain: 6 Bed / 9 Bath - $9.21M

BOOK OF THE DAY

Talk

Description: A science-backed guide from a Harvard Business School behavioral scientist, unpacking the neuroscience and psychology of everyday conversations. Brooks introduces the "TALK" maxims—Topics, Asking, Levity, Kindness—to help you plan, spark, lighten, and humanize interactions, whether with friends, colleagues, or strangers.

Rating:
• Amazon: 4.6 / 5
• Goodreads: 4.0 / 5

Book Length: 336 pages (hardcover)
Audible Length: Estimated ~10 hrs

Ideal For: Anyone looking to elevate their communication—professionals, leaders, parents, friends—especially those who feel conversations are easy but often end unresolved, shallow, or awkward.

“TALK is that rarest of treats: smart, insightful, immediately useful, and way more fun to read than should be allowed.” — Sheila Heen & Doug Stone, Difficult Conversations authors

DAILY VISUAL

Want more? Visualize the markets with Carbon Finance

PRESENTED BY PACASO

Zillow’s Co-Founders’ Next Big Play? Luxury Vacation Home Co-Ownership

After building Zillow into a $16.3B household name, its co-founders quietly launched Pacaso to target their next Golden Goose: The $1.3T vacation home market.

How? By helping wealthy individuals co-own luxury vacation homes, white-gloving the purchase, scheduling, management, and eventual sale. The results are stellar:

• Over 2,000 homeowners so far and $100M+ in gross profits

• 41% year over year increase in gross profit

• Investments from Softbank, Maveron, Greycroft, and others

Now, Pacaso is expanding into global markets, adding new homes in Paris, London, and Cabo.

Browse their portfolio, then join them as an early investor.

DAILY ACUMEN

Brain Reset

What if the most effective tool to reset your brain wasn’t a supplement, an app, or a deep meditation—but a walk around the block?

Neuroscientist Dr. Wendy Suzuki says just 10 minutes of walking can trigger a chemical cascade in the brain: dopamine, serotonin, and endorphins all surge.

These aren’t just buzzwords—they’re the neurochemical foundation of improved mood, focus, and anxiety relief. It's like a "bubble bath" for your brain, and it’s accessible to everyone.

The simplicity is what makes it powerful. No gear. No subscription. Just motion.
Feeling stressed before a meeting? Take a walk.
Can’t focus on your next project? Take a walk.
Feeling disconnected from your day? You already know.

Modern life thrives on overcomplication—but your brain might just need a sidewalk.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• The secret to high performance at work

• 5 summer business casual outfits for men in 2024

• 6 habits that could be taking years off your life

• How to boost your VO2 max

• The most depressing jobs in America

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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