Good Morning! Bank of America is granting about $1 billion in equity to employees, excluding senior managers. A major Danish pension fund plans to sell $100 million in Treasurys, citing ‘poor’ U.S. government finances, while Ray Dalio warns “capital wars” could push investors away from U.S. debt.

Goldman Sachs launched a private equity ETF with no illiquid assets. Blackstone, Apollo, and Ares are teaming up with OneDigital to push deeper into 401(k)s. And Wells Fargo is moving its wealth HQ to Florida.

Plus: The messy drama at former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati’s startup, MBA grads struggling to land jobs, Andreessen Horowitz betting $3 billion that AI isn’t a bubble, and commercial builders increasingly focused on data centers.

Stop the endless back and forth of “final” decks. Try Macabacus’ Deck Check today.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

The “Sell America” Trade Is Back

The “sell America” trade went into hibernation early last year, but it absolutely roared back yesterday. Markets suffered their worst day since April 2025 after President Trump escalated tensions with Europe over Greenland, and global investors scrambled to pare back exposure to U.S.-centric assets in a classic risk-off move.

The U.S. Dollar Index slid nearly 1%, its biggest drop since Trump’s April tariff flare-up. Treasury prices sold off sharply, pushing long-term yields to four-month highs. Gold and silver jumped to fresh records, while Bitcoin fell, a signal that investors were seeking safety in hard commodities rather than crypto.

U.S. equities got hammered, too. The Dow dropped more than 800 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each fell more than 2%. The VIX surged to its highest level since November, meaning investors are now pricing in sustained policy volatility, not just a single bad day.

The key reason for the sell-off is similar to the one we’ve seen from other TACO trades; Trump threatened to impose 10% tariffs on eight European countries starting Feb. 1, which will rise to 25% by June, unless the U.S. is allowed to “take over” Greenland.

European officials convened an emergency meeting and are reportedly weighing retaliatory tariffs. Investors are now worried that U.S. trade policy has become unpredictable, reviving the classic “sell America” trade: a weaker dollar, higher yields, and a higher risk premium for holding U.S. assets.

The bond market is driving most of the volatility. The spike in long-dated Treasury yields signals rising anxiety about U.S. fiscal risk and the possibility that foreign buyers could pull back from financing U.S. deficits. Ray Dalio captured this dynamic in Davos, warning that trade wars can bleed into “capital wars,” where countries grow less willing to fund America’s borrowing.

European equities sold off alongside Asia, with the Stoxx 600 extending its decline. But the bigger story is relative positioning. Investors are actively hedging away from a market that already dominates global portfolios. With U.S. stocks now accounting for the majority of global market capitalization, there is little room for complacency if policy risk keeps rising.

Takeaway: When the dollar falls, bonds sell off, equities drop, and precious metals rally together, markets are questioning America’s policy stability, not just pricing a headline. If the tariff threats persist, the “sell America” trade could become more than a blip: it could turn into a sustained re-rating of U.S. risk. But, if history is any indicator, we could see Trump chicken out in the coming weeks.

PRESENTED BY MACABACUS

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Bank of America to award $1B in stock to nearly all employees through Sharing Success Program (Fox)

• Danish pension fund to sell $100 million in Treasurys, citing 'poor' U.S. government finances (CNBC)

• Ray Dalio warns of “capital wars” as global investors may shun US debt (CNBC) 

• Goldman Sachs launches private equity ETF with no illiquid assets (Citywire)

• Blackstone, Apollo, Ares team up with OneDigital in 401(k) push (BB) 

• Wells Fargo becomes first major bank to relocate wealth operations headquarters to Florida (Fox)

• Even MBAs from top business schools are struggling to get hired (WSJ)

• Andreessen Horowitz makes a $3 billion bet that there’s no AI bubble (BB)  

• Commercial builders are losing their appetite to build anything but data centers (WSJ)

• Amazon CEO Andy Jassy says tariffs are starting to drive up product prices

• (CNBC) 

• When did Dry January get so expensive? (WSJ)

• Trump threatens 200% tariff on French wine and champagne to pressure Macron into Board of Peace (CNBC)

• Goldman Sachs grapples with top lawyer's Epstein problem (WSJ)

• Investment in Manhattan real estate is booming with Union Square storefronts filling up (NYP)

• Americans are the ones paying for tariffs, study finds (WSJ)

• Netflix amends Warner Bros. Discovery offer to all cash (CNBC)

• Wall Street had hopes for AI, Alphabet made those wishes come true (Axios)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. equities sold off sharply as tariffs and geopolitics weighed on sentiment, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq –2%+ and the Dow –1.8%

• European markets declined, with the Euro Stoxx 50 –0.6%, following tariff threats tied to Greenland negotiations

• Treasury yields moved higher on the long end, while the U.S. dollar fell nearly 1%

• Gold (+3%+) and silver (+6%) surged as investors sought safe havens

• Japanese government bond yields jumped, with the 30-year JGB rising to ~3.87% on fiscal concerns

Economic & Macro Themes

• The U.S. announced 10% tariffs on eight European nations, rising to 25% on June 1 absent a deal

• The EU accounts for ~19% of U.S. trade, suggesting modest downside risk to growth and upward pressure on goods prices if tariffs persist

• Retaliation from Europe remains a risk and could further weigh on global growth

• Despite near-term volatility, markets are entering this period with solid economic momentum and strong recent growth

Sector Trends

• Risk-off positioning dominated, with broad equity weakness across growth and cyclicals

• Precious metals outperformed sharply

• Energy and commodities reflected heightened geopolitical uncertainty

Earnings Season

• Q4 earnings season remains constructive despite market volatility

• About 7% of S&P 500 companies have reported, with earnings tracking ~7% growth for the quarter

• 2025 earnings expected to finish 11%+, with ~15% growth projected for 2026

Looking Ahead

• Near-term volatility may persist as tariff negotiations and geopolitics evolve

• Historically, pullbacks are a normal feature of strong long-term equity returns

• We continue to favor equities over fixed income, viewing volatility as an opportunity to add exposure

• Preferred areas include U.S. large- and mid-caps, international small- and mid-caps, and emerging-market equities amid a supportive earnings backdrop

Movers & Shakers

• (+) IAMGOLD ($IAG) +15% after Bank of America raised its price target because of strong market movement.

• (+) Sandisk ($SDNK) +10% because Citi almost doubled its price target.

• (–) Lululemon ($LULU) -6% after the company removed a line of leggings from its website over quality concerns.

Prediction Markets

• The Super Bowl is in California on February 8th. Who do you think will attend?

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• GSK acquired RAPT Therapeutics, a developer of therapies for food allergies, for $2.2 billion

• humans&, a human-centric AI lab focused on building general-purpose AI systems aligned with human values, raised $480 million

• Terralayr, a battery storage company focused on large-scale energy storage infrastructure, raised $210 million

• Pennylane, an accounting and financial management software platform for businesses, raised $200 million

• DealHub, an enterprise sales engagement platform that manages quotes, contracts, and revenue workflows, raised $100 million

• Emergent, an AI software creation platform that enables developers to build and deploy AI applications, raised $70 million
  

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Guinness

Description: An intimate and sweeping business history from inside one of the world’s most iconic brands. Arthur Edward Guinness, with historian Antonia Hart, tells how four generations of the Guinness family navigated rivalry, expansion, innovation, and corporate upheaval to build a brewing empire. The story blends family drama with strategic insight, showing how legacy, leadership, and bold decisions shaped both an enduring company and a cultural legend.

Book Length: 312 pages
Release Date: October 21, 2025

Ideal For: Business history lovers, brand builders, leaders, and anyone fascinated by how family firms grow, evolve, and endure.

“Great brands aren’t just built, they’re inherited, contested, and fought for.”

DAILY VISUAL

US Growth Accelerating as We Go Through 2026

PRESENTED BY ORNN AI

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Right now, lenders, neoclouds, and data center builders are making multi-year commitments using list prices, surveys, guesswork, and assumptions that don’t map to reality.

Ornn is building the missing reference layer: indices based on actual GPU compute transactions, not quoted rates. Think of it as WTI for high-performance compute, giving the market a common benchmark without pretending everything is identical.

Compute doesn’t need to be fungible. It needs to be observable.

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DAILY ACUMEN

Micro-decisions

Every morning, you make approximately 35,000 decisions. Most are unconscious, but a handful shape everything.

What you eat for breakfast determines your energy for hours. Whether you check your phone before getting out of bed sets your mental state for the day. Snoozing your alarm teaches your brain that commitments are negotiable.

These seem trivial, but they're training your neural pathways for bigger decisions.

When Jeff Bezos makes decisions, he categorizes them as either reversible or irreversible. Reversible decisions get made quickly with 70% of the information. Irreversible decisions get deep thought.

Most of your daily decisions are reversible, yet you agonize over them, burning mental energy needed for what actually matters. Meanwhile, the micro-decisions you make on autopilot are quietly programming your future.

What you choose in the first hour after waking predicts the rest of your day with stunning accuracy.

Morning exercise correlates with better food choices later. Reading before emails correlates with more strategic thinking.

These aren't coincidences. They're cascades. One good decision makes the next one easier. One bad decision makes the next one harder.

What micro-decisions are you making unconsciously that deserve conscious attention?

Remember, you don't decide your future once. You decide it 35,000 times a day, one small choice at a time.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• How to focus longer*

• How to beat the mid-afternoon slump

• The best places to visit in Switzerland

• How embracing strangers boosts longevity

• Is insomnia a sleep hack?

• When your hard workout leads to overtraining symptoms

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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