Good Morning! Apollo is predicting a recession by this summer, IBM plans to invest $150 billion in the U.S. over the next five years, and Nvidia fell as China’s Huawei moves to release cheaper chips.

Senator Hawley reintroduced the 'PELOSI Act' to ban lawmakers from trading stocks. Shein is set to raise U.S. prices by as much as 377% ahead of tariff hikes, while Spain and Portugal declared states of emergency after a massive power outage.

Plus: private equity is pushing to change the definition of "accredited investor" to include retail investors, Musk’s big prediction on the future of surgery, and why Tesla could be in worse shape than it seems.

With over $10B in global payroll processed, today’s sponsor Deel knows a thing or two about streamlining payroll. Check out expert insights here.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Private Equity’s Clock Is Ticking

Private equity had enough to stress about with delayed distributions, now there’s another problem creeping in.

The $1.7 trillion of dry powder sitting across private equity and venture capital funds isn't just weighing on GPs’ minds, it’s starting to pressure them into decisions that could backfire.

• Nearly $140 billion of that capital was raised in 2019-2020. Most funds have a five-year investment window, meaning the clock is ticking fast.

• Another $200 billion from 2021 could also bump up against deadlines this year.

Instead of trimming fund sizes (and trimming yacht dreams that come from carried interest), most GPs are sticking to their original commitments.

Some are asking LPs for investment period extensions, which could be a win-win if fees are handled the right way. (Anecdotally, this is starting to happen, according to Cambridge’s Andrea Auerbach.)

But the bigger fear? That GPs will just start deploying capital for the sake of deploying capital. Not necessarily chasing "bad deals," but certainly loosening standards on what counts as a "good" one.

Why would they do this?

• GPs risk losing their management fees if they don't start investing.

• You can’t kick off a new fund until the old one is fully put to work.

Takeaway: Private equity's next challenge may not just be delayed returns, it could be an erosion in deal quality. With the clock ticking on aging funds, GPs may prioritize putting money to work over maintaining strict investment discipline. LPs should be vigilant as the second half of 2025 approaches.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Key commodity exports plunge as Trump's trade war bites (Axios)

• Apollo is predicting a recession by this summer (CNBC)

• How are US consumers and firms responding to tariffs? (Apollo Presentation)

• The bill to stop politicians from stock trading is called the "PELOSI Act" (Fox)

• How tariffs can cause a recession (Axios)

• Nvidia falls as China's Huawei reportedly readies AI chip (YF)

• IBM pledges $150 billion to boost U.S. tech growth, computer manufacturing (CNBC)

• Shein hikes U.S. prices as much as 377% ahead of tariff increases (BB)

• Airbus will buy Spirit AeroSystems’ US and UK assets (CNN)

• Grocery giant warns suppliers it won't be accepting tariff-related price hikes (Fox)

• One chart shows tariffs are already slowing economic activity (YF)

• Private credit investors remain upbeat amid recent turmoil (WSJ)

• US boosts net quarterly borrowing estimate to $514 billion (YF)

• Tariffs, stock market volatility are clouding spring home shopping season (CNN)

• The democratization of private equity is double-edged sword for retail investors (CNBC)

• Spain and Portugal declare states of emergency after massive power outage (CNN)

• Elon Musk makes big prediction about future of surgery within 5 years (Fox)

• Tesla is in worse shape than you think (CNN)

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CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

 Market Update

• Stocks closed mostly higher on Monday, building on last week’s momentum when the S&P 500 gained 4.6% and the Nasdaq rose 6.7%; leadership was broad-based, though tech modestly lagged.

• SPY closed at 551.82, up from 550.64 Friday, continuing an 11% rally off April lows, but still 10% below February’s all-time high.

• Quiet day on the corporate and economic fronts; the pace picks up this week with 30% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q1 earnings and key data releases on GDP, PCE inflation, and jobs.

• European markets finished mostly higher, Asian markets mixed; 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.2%.

• 74% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far have beaten expectations, with Q1 earnings growth tracking at 9.7%; tech giants Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta highlight a pivotal week ahead.

Economic Data Highlights

• Q1 GDP: Expected to slow to 0.8% growth (down from 2.4% prior quarter)

• Core PCE inflation: Expected at 2.6% year-over-year

• Headline PCE inflation: Projected at 2.2% year-over-year

• Nonfarm payrolls: Expected to rise by 125,000; unemployment rate steady at 4.2%

• Progress on U.S.-China trade negotiations and with South Korea has lifted sentiment, but real deals are needed for further market gains.

Reported Earnings

• Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) – Reported April 28, 2025 (After Market Close): Beat EPS at $4.33 vs. $4.00 estimated but missed revenue at $1.11B vs. $1.13B; U.S. same-store sales fell 0.5%, stock slipped 2%.

• Waste Management (WM) – Reported April 28, 2025 (After Market Close): Missed EPS at $1.58 and revenue forecasts; Q1 profit dropped to $637M, but management reaffirmed a strong 2025 outlook; stock reaction muted.

• NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) – Reported April 28, 2025 (After Market Close): Revenue reached $2.84B, EPS met expectations; shares dipped slightly amid tariff and macroeconomic concerns.

Earnings Today

• Spotify (SPOT) – Reporting April 29, 2025 (Before Market Open): Expected to report with focus on premium subscriber growth and advertising revenue trends.

• PayPal (PYPL) – Reporting April 29, 2025 (After Market Close): Investors watching for payment volume momentum, cost control, and margin improvement signals.

• Snap (SNAP) – Reporting April 29, 2025 (After Market Close): Focus on user engagement, ad platform recovery, and AI feature rollouts.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Power Plug ($PLUG) +26% after striking a $525 million loan agreement.

• (+) Peloton ($PTON) +5% because of an upgrade by Truist.

• (–) Nvidia ($NVDA) -2% after reports that China's Huawei is developing a new AI chip.

Private Dealmaking

• Merck of Germany bought SpringWorks Therapeutics for $3.9 billion

• Marriott International is buying the CitizenM hotel brand for $355 million

• Veza, an identity security startup, raised $108 million

• Exowatt, a solar storage startup, raised $70 million

• Avidicure, an antibody modality biotech, raised $50 million

• Brandlight, a brand marketing startup, raised $5.75 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Super Agers

Dr. Topol’s unprecedented, evidenced-based guide is about how you and your family and friends can benefit from new treatments coming available at a faster rate than ever.

From his unique position as a leader overseeing millions in research funding, Dr. Topol also explains the fundamental reasons—from semaglutides to AI—that we can be confident these breakthroughs will continue.

Ninety-five percent of Americans over sixty have at least one chronic disease and almost as many have two.

That is the essential problem this revolution is solving. He explains the power of the new approaches to the worst chronic killers—diabetes/obesity, heart disease, cancer, and neurodegeneration—and how treatments can begin long before middle age, and even long after.

In thirty years, we will have five times as many people at least one hundred years old and they will be healthier than ever because of the breakthroughs Dr. Topol describes.

The amazing discoveries Topol brings into sharp focus are deeply inspiring about our human potential.

We can now realistically see how we can make considerable headway for preventing age-related diseases and may one day be able to slow the body-wide aging process itself.

“Super Agers is a detailed guide to a revolution transforming human longevity. This is a breakthrough moment in the history of human health care.”

DAILY VISUAL

California Flex

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• Shared Libraries – Centralized, firm-approved slides, logos, and templates—always on-hand, always on-brand.

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See Presentation Automation & Proofing in Action.

DAILY ACUMEN

Critical Thinking

With misinformation on the rise, critical thinking is your key to clarity.

It’s about evaluating your own reasoning, not just accepting ideas at face value.

Arguments are like puzzles: premises (what you believe is true) lead to conclusions through inference—like if all Gronks are green, and Fred’s a Gronk, then Fred’s green.

It’s not tied to intelligence but a skill you can sharpen.

Treat critical thinking as a subject to study, a tool to use in real situations, and a habit to embrace—stay curious, question your biases, and always ask “how do we know?”

Improve by discussing reasons with others, assessing info sources while reflecting on your own perspective, and using platforms like Kialo to explore ideas collaboratively.

It’s a social skill that brings you closer to truth through thoughtful reasoning.

_{ENLIGHTENMENT}

Short Squeez Picks

• How do I get recognized as a leader?

• Why hard work only feels valuable sometimes

• 5 daily activities that lower cortisol

• How micromanaging is pushing your partner away

• The positive effects of walking in a city

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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