Good Morning! KKR and Blackstone are leading a $17B bet on natural gas, pouring capital into the sector powering AI’s energy needs. OpenAI is rolling out five new “Stargate” data centers with Oracle and SoftBank, with the first going live this week in Texas.

Tether, the company behind the world’s largest U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin, is eyeing a $500B valuation, while Jimmy Kimmel returned to late night with shots at Trump and the FCC chair. Marathon says M&A and private markets will rebound once a new Fed chair is in place, and HSBC is doubling down on Asia and the Middle East.

Plus: Return-to-office mandates are flopping as workers push back, private equity is struggling to buy, sell, and raise, and Nvidia’s latest headache is sitting on too much cash.

Mosaic’s AI analyst can turn your MD’s comments for you. Check it out today.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Powell: Don’t Get Greedy

Jerome Powell gave a speech in Rhode Island yesterday, and if you're worried markets are starting to overheat, his comments won’t calm your nerves. He didn’t call it a “bubble,” but he isn’t denying it either.

When pressed on valuations, the Fed Chair didn’t hedge: “by many measures … equity prices are fairly highly valued.” 

Most central banker speeches are coded and subtle, but that’s as close as Powell will get to saying “things are looking frothy.” He also reassured the audience that we’re not in a “time of elevated financial stability risks,” but markets didn’t love it.

Stocks flipped red right after his remarks, which reversed a rally that had taken off after the rate cut last week. Investors were riding high on hopes of a new liquidity cycle, but Powell’s speech has called that into question.

Powell clarified that while the Fed watches financial conditions closely, it’s not trying to micromanage asset prices. He reminded the audience that markets interpret Fed moves and front-run expectations, and that’s fine, until asset inflation becomes systemic risk. 

Takeaway: Powell is definitely messaging investors “don’t get greedy.” After one of the strongest equity runs of the year, the Fed is signaling it sees the heat. It’s not just what he said, it’s what he refused to deny. Stocks are flying, rates are falling, valuations are stretched, and the Fed? Still shrugging… for now.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Jimmy Kimmel returns after ABC suspension (CNBC)

• KKR, Blackstone make $17 billion natural gas bet after AI boost (BB)

• OpenAI’s first data center in $500B Stargate project is open in Texas (CNBC)

• JPMorgan expects U.S. GDP growth to slow to a crawl over next two quarters (CNBC)

• Marathon’s Richards sees coming bonanza for LBOs and private credit (BB)

• HSBC exec says bank’s future lies in Asia and Middle East (BB)

• Private equity industry struggles to buy, sell, and fundraise (BB)

• Return-to-office efforts flop as workers push back (WSJ)

• MLB approves robot umpires for '26 (MLB)

• How to handle a job market that’s worse than it looks (WSJ)

• How Nvidia is backstopping America’s AI boom (WSJ)

• Private equity is getting boring (BB)

• Nvidia has a problem - too much money (WSJ)

• H-1B visa fee risks up to 5,500 work permits a month, JPMorgan says (BB)

• Larry Ellison’s Oracle could become new kind of media mogul in TikTok deal (NYT)

• Private equity leans on weaker credit safeguards, Moody’s warns (BB)

• Can athleisure survive the death of leggings? (BB)

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CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Equities retreat from record highs – U.S. stocks slipped after Monday’s record close, with semiconductors leading losses as the boost from NVIDIA’s OpenAI investment news faded.

• Energy outperforms – Rising oil prices on NATO–Russia tensions helped the energy sector finish higher.

• Powell flexible – Fed Chair Powell reiterated risks around labor markets and inflation while keeping options open.

• Bonds and dollar – The 10-year yield edged lower to 4.11%; markets still expect the Fed to cut to 3% within a year.

• Global tone – OECD raised global growth forecasts to 3.2% for 2025, but cautioned on delayed tariff impacts.

Economic Data Highlights

• OECD upgrade – Global growth for 2025 lifted to 3.2% (from 2.9%), driven by China stimulus, U.S. AI investment, and front-loaded production.

• U.S. growth outlook – Revised up to 1.8% (from 1.6%), though tariffs remain a key headwind for H2.

• Shutdown risk – With funding set to expire Sept. 30, budget negotiations remain deadlocked. Past shutdowns show limited long-term market impact but short-term disruption for households.

• Labor/inflation risks – OECD flagged that tariffs could gradually lift inflation, though disinflation in services may help keep pressures in check.

Reported Earnings

• AutoZone (AZO) – Results highlighted same-store sales growth and stable margins.

• Micron Technology (MU) – Earnings underscored strong AI-driven memory demand and supply-chain resilience.

Earnings Today

• Cintas (CTAS) – Focus on uniform rental growth and cost management.

• Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC) – Watch for production updates and commentary on uranium demand trends.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) McKesson ($MCK) +6% after the medical supplier announced strong guidance.

• (–) Amazon ($AMZN) -3% because of opening arguments in FTC’s Prime marketing lawsuit.

• (–) Vistra ($VST) -6% after the power provider was downgraded by Jefferies.

Private Dealmaking

• KKR and CPP Investment Board agreed to buy a 45% stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners for $10 billion

• Heineken agreed to buy Florida Ice and Farm’s beverage and retail unit for $3.2 billion

• Thoma Bravo agreed to buy PROS Holdings for $1.4 billion

• Advanced Drainage Systems agreed to buy the water management unit of Norma Group for $1 billion

• Filevine, a legal intelligence startup, raised $400 million

• Capital Rx, a pharmacy benefit manager, raised $252 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

The Art of Gathering

Description: A powerful exploration of how even ordinary gatherings—meetings, dinners, celebrations—can become deeply meaningful when designed with intention. Priya Parker argues that every gathering needs a clear purpose, a host who steps into authority, smart constraints, and a memorable opening and ending. She shows that what’s most magical isn’t the logistics—it’s the design of connection.

Book Length: 320 pages

Ideal For: Event planners, team leads, meeting organizers, community builders, and anyone eager to make the gatherings in their life more memorable—and more human.

“The way a group of people is gathered determines what happens in it.”

DAILY VISUAL

Nothing Ever Happens

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Career Compounding

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Compounding works on decades, not quarters.

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Then let time do the work.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Learn about 40 pre-IPO companies to invest in today

• 3 management styles that beat out aggressive leadership

• What are the skills critical for the future of work?

• 7 tiny habits that can cultivate happiness

• Should you buy shares in your company?

• The 9 best running shorts for men

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Memes of the Day

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