Good morning! Wall Street’s biggest banks kicked off earnings season strong, JPMorgan, Goldman, Citi, and Wells Fargo all beat expectations. Goldman warned of more job cuts as AI trims costs, while Citi says automation is saving developers 100,000 hours a week.

Smart-ring maker Oura hit an $11B valuation after a $900M raise, Bilt is expanding from rent rewards into mortgages, Brooklyn Mirage will be demolished after filing for bankruptcy, and Apollo-backed Allwyn is merging with Greece’s OPAP in an $18.6B deal.

Plus: NYC’s office market is roaring back to 2006-level highs, Jamie Dimon sees auto bankruptcies as early signs of corporate lending stress, and how to truly take ownership of your work.

Explore insights from 746 finance leaders on how they're managing cash flow, fighting fraud, and scaling smarter payment systems in BILL’s State of B2B Payments report.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Options Desks Smell Trouble

While the spring and summer were a calm time for markets, we’re in the midst of a volatile past week or so…and Wall Street’s options desks are warning that the worst might still be to come this earnings season. 

Implied moves on S&P 500 names are sitting around 4.7% post-earnings, which is basically back to 2021-22 volatility. The market’s been quietly grinding higher all year, but that smooth ride’s starting to feel shaky, and traders are suddenly paying real money for downside protection.

And honestly, you can’t blame them. With Trump talking 100% tariffs on China, a government shutdown, and worries that the AI trade might finally be topping out, things are looking less calm than they did a few months ago. The S&P dropped almost 3% in one day last Friday after Trump’s comments.

UBS and Citi’s data show it too: post-earnings stock moves are getting bigger, while correlations between names are breaking down. So while the index might look calm, under the hood, every company is trading to its own beat. That’s why options volumes are spiking in Tesla, Oracle, AMD, and the rest of the Mag 7; nobody wants to be caught short when dispersion picks up again.

And it’s not just tech. Consumer, healthcare, and small-cap industrials are all pricing their biggest earnings-day swings since 2020. The “AI contagion” has basically infected the entire market; even boring sectors are acting like beta junkies.

Takeaway: This earnings season is a make-or-break moment for the AI bull run. Options pricing shows traders aren’t assuming another quarter of easy gains, they’re hedging for volatility. After a year and a half of straight-line optimism, investors are finally bracing for the hangover: missed earnings, margin compression, and a whole lot of call options expiring worthless.

PRESENTED BY BILL

NEW! State of B2B Payments Report 2025

If you're leading finance at a growing business, you're juggling a lot: fraud prevention, cash flow, operational efficiency, and trying to scale.

But, you're not alone. BILL recently surveyed more than 700 finance leaders and here's what stood out:

• 1 in 4 lost money to payments fraud last year

• 1 in 3 are bracing for cash flow challenges in the year ahead

• And 88% say digital payments platforms are essential to their ability to grow

One thing was clear: finance leaders are moving away from paper-heavy processes toward smarter, more secure systems. Digital payments are no longer a nice-to-have, but a critical tool for businesses. 

BILL pulled all the findings into a brand new State of B2B Payments report. If you're rethinking your payments stack or just want to see where your peers are headed, it's worth a look.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• JPMorgan bankers crush Q3 profit estimates, Dimon warns on credit quality (BB)

• Goldman dealmakers drive bank to all-time high Q3 revenues (BB)

• Citi reported rise in earnings with every business posting record Q3 revenue (CNBC)

• Brooklyn Mirage files for full demolition (GT)

• Goldman tells staff it plans to cut more jobs this year thanks to AI efficiencies (BB)

• Citi AI usage frees up to 100,000/week for developers (YF)

• Oura reaches $11 billion valuation with new $900 million fundraise (CNBC)

• Startup that turns rent into reward points expanding into mortgage payments (BB)

• Allwyn, OPAP creates $18.6 billion European gambling giant through merger (WSJ)

• The NYC office market is back and is more expensive than ever (WSJ)

• Dimon says auto bankruptcies show early signs of excess in corporate lending (CNBC)

• Gold hits record $4,100/ounce on U.S. rate cut bets (CNBC)

• JPMorgan’s Dimon on Tricolor losses: “It is not our finest moment” (YF)

• JPMorgan blames levered ETFs for the pace of stock selloffs (YF)

• BlackRock pulls in $205B as private-asset boom accelerates (BB)

• Wall Street has so much riding on EA buyout as banks load up on debt (BB)

• Palantir rival quietly builds a big business (YF)

• Debt investors grow cautious of firms getting “hit by AI” (BB)

• Why silver price has been surging even more than gold (BB)

• The underrated power of glue employees who hold everything together (WSJ)

• Private equity’s comeback is missing one key ingredient (FT) 

• How long will gold mania last? (FT)

• Major real estate developers are fast becoming power brokers (CNBC)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Markets closed lower in a volatile session as trade tensions persisted.

• China imposed sanctions on U.S. units of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, following U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese ships docking at American ports.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Trump still plans to meet with China’s President Xi at the APEC summit later this month.

• Government shutdown reached two weeks, now the fifth-longest in history, with no signs of progress.

• Consumer staples and industrials led gains, while technology and consumer discretionary stocks lagged.

• U.S. dollar declined, and WTI oil fell near five-month lows after the IEA raised its supply forecast and cut demand expectations.

Economic Data Highlights

• Earnings season is off to a solid start, led by the major banks.

• JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs all beat expectations on both earnings and revenue.

• Bank of America and Morgan Stanley are set to report tomorrow.

• S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise about 8% year-over-year, with seven of 11 sectors forecast to show growth.

• Technology, utilities, and materials are projected to lead gains, though valuations remain elevated.

Reported Earnings

• JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), and Goldman Sachs (GS) – Results came in above estimates, reflecting solid consumer spending and resilient capital-markets activity.

Earnings Today

• ASML (ASML) – Focus on semiconductor demand trends.

• Bank of America (BAC) – Watch for loan growth and consumer credit trends.

• Morgan Stanley (MS) – Focus on investment-banking activity and trading revenue.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Albertsons ($ACI) +14% after the grocery chain announced strong earnings.

• (+) BlackRock ($BLK) +3% after announcing a record $13.4T in AUM, up 17% from last year at this time.

• (–) Robinhood ($HOOD) -4% after the fintech company could reportedly sell its prediction markets business.

Prediction Markets

• Where will the S&P 500 close in 2025?

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Allwyn agreed to merge with OPAP in an all-stock deal for $18.6 billion

• Rayonier agreed to merge with PotlatchDeltic in an all-stock deal for $8.2 billion

• Brookfield agreed to buy the remaining 26% stake in Oaktree Capital Management for $3 billion

• Oura, a smart-ring maker, raised $900 million

• Kailera Therapeutics, a developer of obesity drugs, raised $600 million

• Caterpillar agreed to buy RPMGlobal for $740 million

• Trove AI, a PE agent platform, raised $7.1 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Irrational Together

Description:
Sociologist Adam Hayes argues that most economic “irrationality” isn’t just about individual brain mistakes—it’s woven into our social fabric. Through stories and research, he shows how class, culture, networks, identity, and norms push us to make financial choices that look irrational in a vacuum. Hayes navigates the tension between behavioral economics and sociology, revealing how money decisions are always social decisions.

Book Length: 256 pages

Ideal For: Economists, behavioral-science nerds, social thinkers, and anyone curious how money decisions are shaped not just by us—but by the people around us.

“Economic decisions are not made in a vacuum; they are deeply embedded in our social worlds and cultural contexts.”

DAILY VISUAL

Data Center Growth Slowing

PRESENTED BY MEANWHILE

Life Insurance That Preserves Your Wealth

Every dollar today buys just 3 % of what it did a century ago. That’s why your savings account isn’t saving; it’s slowly bleeding value to inflation.

Meanwhile offers a life insurance policy denominated entirely in Bitcoin (premiums, reserves, and payouts in BTC) designed to preserve purchasing power rather than erode it.

• What it does: Meanwhile is the world’s first fully regulated Bitcoin‑denominated life insurer, licensed in Bermuda.

• Why it matters: While inflation has erased over 96 % of the dollar’s value since 1915, Bitcoin holds potential to maintain value across generations.

• The benefit: Meanwhile enables Bitcoin holders to protect their family’s future and savings in BTC, insulating them from fiat‑currency decay.

Protect your legacy in an asset that isn’t losing value every year.

DAILY ACUMEN

Repetition

Excellence is not built on novelty.

It is built on the relentless repetition of fundamentals.

A trader refines the same playbook until it becomes instinct.

A musician plays the same scales until the notes disappear into flow.

The world glamorizes innovation, but mastery hides in repetition.

Doing the same thing a thousand times does not make you dull; it makes you dangerous.

The goal is not variety, it is precision. Boredom is the price of greatness.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• How to take ownership of your work

• What actually happens in your brain when you change your mind?

• 3 simple habits that will boost your productivity

• How to trick your brain to do hard things

• 8 lazy cleaning tips people swear by

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

📣 Partner With Us: Get in front of an audience of over 1 million finance professionals, business leaders, and policy influencers. Submit a partnership inquiry.

📈 Grow With Us: Work directly with the Overheard on Wall Street team to scale your finance brand. Schedule your free consult.

🔒 Short Squeez Premium – Insiders: Access exclusive content, including investment analysis, wellness features, career tools, and our full recruiting resource library. Upgrade to Premium. 

🧢 Wall Street Shop: Explore our collection of finance-themed apparel and merchandise. Visit the shop.

📬 Deals Newsletter – Buysiders: A curated roundup of major M&A, private equity, and VC activity. Plus access to private deal flow. Subscribe here.

🏠 Real Estate Newsletter – City Squeez: Latest news and exclusive listings for those looking to buy, rent, or invest in real estate around the world. Sign up here.

📚 Courses: Level up with our excel, modeling, and private equity courses. View offerings.