Good Morning! M&A deal volume crossed $1 trillion this summer with the busiest August since 2021. Canada Goose jumped 16% as Bain Capital solicited take-private bids, while ByteDance topped Meta in revenue and is eyeing a $330 billion valuation.

Hedge funds are piling into a niche arbitrage trade, and Goldman Sachs is targeting Australia’s wealthiest clients. AI spending now accounts for a quarter of U.S. GDP growth, and recent graduates with AI skills can earn as much as $1 million a year.

Plus: Apple takes on Spotify with six new radio stations, and why chasing work-life balance might just keep you mediocre.

Modeling errors, unreliable Excel-to-PPT linking, last-min pls fixes. Sound familiar? Macabacus can help.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Nvidia Day

Nvidia’s earnings finally hit turbulence, and Wall Street noticed. The chipmaker reported earnings after the bell yesterday and beat expectations again, $46.7B revenue, +56% y/y, EPS of $1.05 vs. $1.01 est., but guided Q3 sales to $54B, only modestly above consensus and far short of the $60B+ bull cases. 

Shares dropped ~3% after hours, a rare stumble for the world’s most valuable company. Nvidia alone accounts for nearly 7% of the S&P 500 and has been the index’s biggest driver for two straight years. A wobble in its growth outlook doesn’t just ding NVDA holders; it impacts benchmarks, ETFs, and any investor benchmarking against the index. 

Beneath the headline numbers, there were signs of strain. Data center revenue missed expectations for the second straight quarter. Sales of its H20 chips registered zero in China due to U.S. export restrictions, and while $180 million came from H20 shipments elsewhere, management warned that several billion dollars in potential Chinese demand remains uncertain.

Nvidia has struck a deal to resume sales under new rules that would send 15% of China chip revenue back to Washington, but the timing is unclear. The geopolitical overhang now poses as much of a risk to the stock as competition.

Even so, Jensen Huang struck an optimistic tone, insisting that global AI infrastructure spending will top $3–4 trillion by 2030. He noted that hyperscaler capex has already doubled to roughly $600 billion annually. To reinforce confidence, Nvidia authorized another $60 billion in stock buybacks. And for now, no rival has come close to denting its dominance in AI silicon.

Takeaway: The reality, though, is that Nvidia’s $4.4 trillion valuation leaves no margin for error. Investors have priced in perfection, and with growth decelerating, perfection is harder to deliver. The story is less about Nvidia’s ability to expand than about whether it can keep surprising. For now the backbone of the global economy is humming along, though every wobble echoes through Wall Street.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Dealmakers top $1T in M&A with busiest August since 2021 (BB)

• Canada Goose jumps on take-private bids (CNBC)

• TikTok owner ByteDance eyes valuation of over $330 billion as revenue surpasses Meta (Reuters)

• American Eagle taps Travis Kelce to sell jeans (BB)

• Private equity finds new way to deal with its deadline crisis (FT)

• AI investment is fueling economic growth, NYT analysis shows (NYT)

• Google exec says company has cut a third of its managers (CNBC)

• Apple makes radio push after losing ground to Spotify in music (WSJ)

• Vercel triples valuation to $9B with Accel investment (BB)

• Venture debt firms tilt toward mature companies (WSJ)

• A niche arbitrage trade is gaining traction among hedge funds (BB)

• Americans grow less confident about their financial futures (CNBC)

• Why Goldman Sachs is targeting Australia’s wealthiest (BB)

• Trump touts wind energy, infrastructure, and private equity investment (Axios)

• Japan private equity splits opinion: vultures or defenders? (YF)

• Forget Nvidia, Costco and Walmart’s valuations may be scarier (BB)

• Amazon plans to poach Whole Foods staff with direct job offers (WSJ)

• 'AI natives' are making big bucks (LI)

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Turn Messy Models Into Client-Ready Decks

TL;DR: Financial modeling errors and sloppy slides tank credibility. Macabacus gives banking & finance firms an enterprise-grade productivity tool to deliver error-free models & decks with confidence and speed.

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CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. equities edged higher, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high and the Nasdaq still ~1.3% below its peak earlier this month.

• Overseas markets were mixed: Europe softened, Japan’s Nikkei ticked higher, and India fell 1% after the U.S. doubled tariff rates on Indian imports to 50%.

• Shorter-dated Treasuries rallied, with 2- and 10-year yields down 2 bps, while the 30-year held flat, extending curve steepening on Fed uncertainty.

• Dollar was flat against peers; oil and gold prices gained.

Economic Data Highlights

• Fed fallout deepens as reports suggest the administration is seeking greater influence over Regional Fed presidents, who are currently appointed outside presidential control.

• Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated calls for a review of Fed governance, raising concerns over increased political involvement.

• NY Fed President Williams said September is a “live meeting,” signaling openness to a rate cut.

• Governor Waller’s speech tomorrow will be closely watched, with markets viewing him as the leading candidate to succeed Powell when his term ends next year.

Reported Earnings

• NVIDIA (NVDA) – Results topped expectations, with EPS and revenue both strong; forward guidance emphasized AI chip demand and hyperscaler orders.

• CrowdStrike (CRWD) – Reported robust ARR growth and strong customer adds; AI-driven security adoption cited as a growth driver.

• Snowflake (SNOW) – Posted revenue above expectations, though consumption trends remained choppy; AI workload demand a bright spot.

Earnings Today

• WeBull (BULL) – Focus on trading activity, user growth, and brokerage fee trends.

• Dell Technologies (DELL) – Key watchpoints include PC demand, enterprise IT spending, and AI infrastructure sales.

• Affirm (AFRM) – Investors watching BNPL volumes, delinquency rates, and consumer credit trends.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) MongoDB ($MDB) +38% after the database platform developer’s results beat Wall Street analysts’ estimates.

• (+) Canada Goose ($GOOS) +16% because the luxury parka maker’s controlling shareholder, Bain Capital, received bids to take the company private.

• (–) Krispy Kreme ($DNUT) -3% after the donut chain was downgraded to underweight by JPMorgan.

Private Dealmaking

• Sompo Holdings bought Aspen Insurance for $3.5 billion

• Attio, a London-based CRM startup, raised $52 million

• Assort Health, a communications automation startup, raised $50 million

• Medallion, a back-office management automation company, raised $43 million

• AgendaPro, a salon management software platform, raised $35 million

• OpenLight, a chip design startup, raised $34 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Dark Wire

Description: A jaw-dropping exposé of the FBI’s audacious covert operation: they built and ran a criminal-grade encrypted messaging app, Anom, that thousands of criminals worldwide trusted—only to wiretap them all. This global sting reveals how law enforcement outmaneuvered sophisticated criminal networks from the inside.

Rating: Amazon 4.3 / 5

Book Length: 352 pages
Audiobook Length: 11 hrs 40 mins

Ideal For: True crime buffs, cybersecurity watchers, investigative journalism fans, and anyone captivated by the dark underbelly of encrypted communication and the shadows where criminals and law enforcement collide.

“Joseph Cox has written an instant true-crime classic... filled with stranger-than-fiction gangsters and smugglers. Your eyebrows will be raised in amazement page after page.”

DAILY VISUAL

Goose Bumps

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Diligence Without 50 Open Tabs

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Blueflame is making the lives of investment teams easier. It's time you level up your diligence process.

DAILY ACUMEN

Margin of Safety

In investing, the margin of safety is the buffer between what something is worth and what you pay.

It’s the difference between survival and ruin when things don’t go as planned.

Life is no different. If every dollar is allocated, every hour scheduled, every ounce of energy spoken for, then the slightest disruption—a layoff, an illness, a curveball—can wipe you out.

The best investors aren’t optimists or pessimists; they’re prepared realists.

They know that models fail and markets swing.

The best lives are built the same way: with cash reserves, time reserves, and emotional reserves.

Your margin isn’t wasted slack—it’s the silent partner that buys you freedom when everyone else is forced to sell.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Command attention in any room using key phrases

• How stress sabotages your workouts 

• Want to be happy? Be kind 

• How to live a good life, according to science 

• Why chasing work-life balance will keep you mediocre 

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Memes of the Day

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