Good Morning! Warren Buffett now owns 5% of all U.S. Treasury bills, even more than the Fed! Meanwhile, gold demand in China is surging, with some forecasts calling for prices to hit $5,000 an ounce.

Musk’s empire is getting bigger, too. Neuralink is raising $500 million at an $8.5 billion valuation, while xAI is seeking $20 billion at a $120 billion valuation, the second-largest private funding round ever.

Apple is shifting more iPhone production to India. DoorDash made a $3.6 billion bid for Deliveroo, and Tesla rallied 18% last week on new self-driving car rules.

Plus: Morningstar names 12 undervalued tech stocks, Canadian investors are boycotting Big Tech for obscure alternatives, and a 100-year-old shares their advice for a long, happy life.

Discover how leading firms are using Hebbia to streamline research, diligence, and reporting.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

New Recession Indicator Just Dropped

A new LendingTree survey just flashed another bad sign for the economy: 25% of Americans who use Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services are now financing their grocery bills, up from just 14% last year.

BNPL first took off around 2018–19, with companies like Klarna and Affirm helping consumers split up payments on big-ticket purchases like laptops, TVs, and furniture. It wasn’t intended to help people finance $15 cheeseburgers, gas, or fast food, but that’s exactly what’s happening.

According to the survey, nearly half of Americans (49%) have used BNPL at least once, and 41% of users have missed a payment in the past year, a jump from 34% a year ago. Notably, 23% of users reported having three or more active BNPL loans at the same time, indicating a trend of stacking multiple loans concurrently.

Why are more people using BNPL for everyday items? Part of it could be financial stress, part of it could be a lack of understanding about how quickly stacking BNPL loans can spiral. Either way, it’s a signal that Americans are prioritizing getting through the week over saving for next year’s vacation.

The trend isn’t slowing down either: companies like Delta and Walmart have warned that consumers are leaning harder on debt to cover both essentials and experiences. Meanwhile, a separate study found that 60% of Coachella-goers this year used BNPL to finance their festival tickets.

Takeaway: Rising dependence on short-term debt for basic needs is often an early warning sign of a weakening economy. If spending keeps shifting from discretionary splurges to survival mode, the odds of a consumer-driven slowdown only get higher. Looks like the only thing growing faster than BNPL balances right now might be recession odds.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Warren Buffett now owns 5% of all US Treasury bills, more than the Fed (ET)

• Gold could rally to $5,000/oz due to Chinese demand (BB)

• Most US iPhones to come from India (NYP)

• Private credit's cracks widened before turmoil (YF)

• Elon Musk’s Neuralink is planning to raise $500M at an $8.5B valuation (BB)

• Musk’s xAI Holdings is raising the 2nd-largest private funding round ever (TC)

• California overtakes Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy (CNN)

• Hamptons home sales have surged in 2025 (NYP)

• OpenAI and Yahoo both want Chrome if Google has to sell (YF)

• Canadians ditch Big Tech giants for obscure alternatives in trade war boycott (NYP)

• Wealthy donors wary of stepping up donations to Harvard (CNBC)

• DoorDash offers to buy Deliveroo for $3.6 billion (Axios)

• Wall Street eyes one key issue in Big Tech earnings (YF)

• A tuition-free school created by Zuckerberg will shutter next year (CNN)

• Trump insists China called, and trade deals are weeks away (Axios)

• Tesla sees 18% weekly gain as DoT unveils new self-driving car rules (YF)

• Morningstar put together a list of 12 undervalued tech stocks (MS)

PRESENTED BY HEBBIA

Delegate Your Diligence

Finance professionals need tools that work as hard as they do. Hebbia’s Matrix delivers powerful solutions to streamline your workflow and give you a competitive edge. Here’s how top firms use Hebbia:

• Summarize 200+ earnings calls annually without breaking a sweat.

• Review offering memorandums 5x faster to keep pace with changing markets.

• Identify red flags, compare risks, and extract critical terms in minutes.

• Turn diligence notes into IC-ready investment memos.

Whether you’re tracking opportunities, managing risk, or drafting IC memos, Hebbia helps finance teams get more done in less time, without sacrificing quality.

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

 Market Update

• Stocks climbed higher: S&P 500 up for the fourth straight day, fueled by reports of China possibly easing its 125% tariffs on some U.S. products, boosting optimism.

• Consumer discretionary and tech stocks led gains, signaling a risk-on mood; SPY closed at 550.64, slightly up from 548.37 Thursday, continuing its recovery with a 10% rally since April 8.

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for April rose to 52.2, beating estimates of 50.8, lifted by better views on current economic conditions.

• Asia and European markets mostly up, likely riding the wave of easing U.S.-China trade tensions.

• U.S. dollar gained against major currencies; WTI oil dipped on OPEC+ oversupply worries.

• Bond yields eased; 10-year Treasury yield at 4.26%, down 0.25% from early April, with markets expecting three or four Fed rate cuts in 2025, against the Fed’s two-cut forecast.

• S&P 500 Q1 earnings growth now at 6.1%, with 74% of reporting companies beating estimates by 9.9% on average; seven sectors expected to grow, full-year 2025 growth at 9.4%, though tariffs may pressure margins.

Reported Earnings

• AbbVie (ABBV): Beat expectations on revenue and earnings, raising its 2025 EPS guidance.

• Schlumberger (SLB): Met expectations in the energy sector; stock reaction was muted due to oil price volatility.

• HCA Healthcare (HCA): Exceeded forecasts with strong hospital operations; stock rose on solid patient volumes.

Upcoming Earnings

• Waste Management (WM) – Reporting April 28, 2025 (After Market Close): Expected to report with focus on waste services demand and acquisition integration. ​

• Meta Platforms (META) – Reporting April 30, 2025 (After Market Close): Investors watching for ad revenue performance and AI investments. ​

• Microsoft (MSFT) – Reporting April 30, 2025 (After Market Close): Focus on cloud services growth and AI monetization. ​

• Amazon (AMZN) – Reporting May 1, 2025 (After Market Close): Set to report with focus on AWS growth trends, retail margin improvements, and broader consumer spending trends. ​

• Apple (AAPL) – Reporting May 1, 2025 (After Market Close): Investors awaiting updates on iPhone demand, services revenue, and any commentary on China sales softness. ​

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Tesla ($TSLA) +10% after the White House will reportedly loosen self-driving car regulations.

• (+) SoFi Technologies ($SOFI) +5% because Citizens JPM initiated coverage with a buy.

• (–) T-Mobile ($TMUS) -11% after the company’s Q1 wireless subscribers missed Wall Street estimates.

Private Dealmaking

• I Squared Capital bought Mobico for $608 million

• Butterfly Effect, an AI agent developer, raised $75 million

• Healthee, a health benefits navigation platform, raised $50 million

• Ocient, a data analytics software provider, raised $42.1 million

• Fora, a travel agent startup, raised $40 million

• Cynomi, an Israeli vCISO platform, raised $37 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH

Real Estate Digest

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ticked down slightly this week. Over the past few months, the 30-year has stayed within a tight 20-basis-point range, providing a much-needed sense of certainty and stability, a welcome sign for both buyers and sellers. While other asset classes continue to show volatility and make investors nervous, real estate has been quietly holding its value.

Latest News

• Here are the home renovations you can make with the largest return

• Why Florida condo owners are scrambling to sell

• Anxious homeowners are fleeing to a second-home hub known as ‘Vacationland’

New Listings

• 21 E 96th St Apt: 3/4 New York, NY: 5 Bed / 5.5 Bath - $9,888,000

• 161 Water Mill Towd Rd Water Mill, NY: 7 Bed / 8.5 Bath - $6,795,000

• 221 Monroe Dr West Palm Beach, FL: 6 Bed / 5.5 Bath - $9,800,000

• Via Regina Brienno, Lombardia Italy: 6 Bed / 6 Bath - $11,347,900

• El Masnou, Barcelona Spain: 5 Bed / 7 Bath - $10,213,110

Whether you're looking to buy, sell, rent, or invest, we've got you covered. Don't miss out—fill out this form to get started.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Secrets of Adulthood

The right idea, invoked at the right time, can change our lives. Drawing from her long studies of happiness, and also from the challenges she’s faced herself, writer Gretchen Rubin has discovered the “Secrets of Adulthood” that can help us manage the complexities of life.

To convey her conclusions, she turned to the aphorism—the ancient literary discipline that demands that a writer convey a large truth in a few words. 

Perhaps you’re paralyzed by indecision, struggling to navigate a big change, fighting a temptation, or puzzled by the behavior of someone you love; whatever you face, the right aphorism can help.

From procrastination to the pursuit of happiness, Secrets of Adulthood is filled with witty and thought-provoking reflections.

For anyone undergoing a major life transition, such as graduation, career switch, marriage, or moving, or for those just encountering everyday dilemmas, these disarming aphorisms will inspire you by articulating truths that you may never have noticed but instantly recognize.

“With time and experience, life teaches us lessons—usually the hard way.”

DAILY VISUAL

Nearly 25% of Google’s Q1 Net Income Reportedly Came From its SpaceX Investment

PRESENTED BY RYSE

Tariffs Are Back. So Is Market Uncertainty.

With Trump signaling steep new tariffs, markets are bracing for volatility — and investors are looking to the private markets for stability.

That’s where one tech startup stands out.

This smart home disruptor is bringing affordable automation to window shades, with 10+ patents, an exclusive Amazon partnership, and $10M+ in revenue.

Now in 127 Best Buy stores and launching in Home Depot in 2025, this company is following the same acquisition path as Ring and Nest.

With 200% YoY growth, this may be your chance to get in before the next wave.

Learn more today.

DAILY ACUMEN

Leadership Without Control

Great leaders know control is a myth in today’s chaotic world—think cyberattacks, supply chain hiccups, and inflation woes.

Instead of micromanaging, they focus on what only they can do: set the vision, like crafting a winning strategy or steering a tech overhaul, and then step back.

At Trimble, CEO Rob Painter likens his role to an orchestra conductor, fine-tuning the team without playing every instrument, balancing individuality with collective success.

This means asking thought-provoking questions, not dictating answers, and letting teams learn from missteps—like a quarterback turning a Super Bowl fumble into a growth moment.

Painter’s approach at Trimble shifted the company from siloed divisions to a shared tech team, proving that releasing control can boost efficiency and autonomy.

It’s about finding your unique impact as a leader and empowering others to shine.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• How to boost productivity and break procrastination habits

• 4 hard questions when team accountability is low

• How to recognize hidden feedback 

• 100-year-old’s advice for a long, happy life

• How to manage upward and work with your boss, not against them

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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