Good Morning! Sweetgreen logged its second straight sales drop, shares fell 23%, and it’s also pulling the plug on its Ripple Fries. Harvard’s endowment made a $117 million Bitcoin bet, bigger than its Google and Nvidia stakes. New AI-focused hedge funds, including one led by a 23-year-old, are raising billions.

Private equity timelines are stretching as LPs push for cash back, with median portfolio company age at 3.8 years, the highest since 2011. Surprise gold tariffs sent futures to a record high, extending the metal’s 30% YTD rally. Ethereum, up 190% since April lows, crossed $4,000 and is nearing an all-time high.

Plus: The AI boom is minting billionaires at a record pace, Allbirds is rebranding beyond its fad phase, companies are enforcing office attendance at the highest rate in five years, and Cuomo bashes Mamdani for hogging a rent-controlled apartment.

Hebbia is launching a two-week AI accelerator to equip teams with the same workflows as the top investment banks. Join the waitlist.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

MAGA-Backed Mortgages

In December 2024, Bill Ackman dropped a post on X, calling Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac two of the best investment opportunities he had seen in over a decade, projecting potential gains of more than 500% if privatized. So far, the bet is paying off, with Fannie up 191% year-to-date and Freddie up 137%.

Last week, Trump signaled privatization is moving ahead, with plans for IPOs that could raise around $30 billion and value the firms at roughly $500 billion combined.

Still up for debate is whether the mortgage giants would IPO as one company or two separate entities. Ackman and Howard Lutnick favor a merger for operational synergies and potentially lower mortgage rates. So that means the combined entity would not just benefit investors, but also homebuyers.

Trump floated the idea of the merged entity being listed as The Great American Mortgage Corporation, or MAGA, with a brand-new ticker symbol. On Truth Social, he even posted an AI-generated image of himself (above) ringing the bell at the New York Stock Exchange for the MAGA stock listing.

Fannie and Freddie have been under government control since the 2008 financial crisis and rely on a government-backed guarantee to protect investors from losses. Trump has said he wants to keep that guarantee, but details are unclear.

Any deal would also hand a windfall to early investors like Ackman and John Paulson, although risks include dilution from new issuance and uncertainty over the government’s ongoing role.

Takeaway: Trump’s MAGA stock proposal is also a potential windfall for Wall Street banks, which are expected to rake in massive advisory fees from this deal. But investors will want to know if the government guarantee remains in place. The fate of America’s housing finance system is on the table, and without government support, mortgage markets could be in for a rough ride.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Sweetgreen nixes fries that sought to redefine fast food (BB)

• Harvard pours $117M into Bitcoin ETF (YF)

• Billions flow to new hedge funds focused on AI-related bets (WSJ)

• PE investors want their money back but it's tied up in zombie funds (CNBC)

• US adds surprise gold bar to reserves for first time in decades (YF)

• Ethereum’s price crosses $4,000 for first time in 2025 (MSN)

• AI is creating new billionaires at a record pace (CNBC)

• How Allbirds plans to overcome having started as a fad (Fortune)

• Companies monitoring and enforcing office attendance (CNBC)

• Mark Zuckerberg’s unbelievably bleak AI vision (Vox)

• Anthropic’s quiet edge in the AI talent war (WSJ)

• Private credit goes big on open-ended funds to lure retail cash (BB)

• Carlyle’s Alpinvest sells $1.25B deal repackaging PE fund stakes (BB)

• Uzbekistan's first unicorn, Uzum, leaps to a $1.5B valuation (YF)

• Computer-driven traders are bullish on stocks, humans are bears (BB)

• Palantir’s 2,500% run has bulls scrambling to justify valuation (BB)

• Market pullbacks will be short-lived as AI, rate-cut optimism fuel rally (YF)

• Hedge funds flip on green energy (YF)

• Cuomo bashes Mamdani for hogging $2,300 from homeless New Yorkers (NYP)

• Princeton eliminates tuition for families making up to $250k a year (BB)

PRESENTED BY HEBBIA

The Accelerator Designed for Investment Banks

Meet The Bullpen, Hebbia’s new two-week AI accelerator built for investment banking pros. Cut diligence time, automate contract analysis, and assemble winning pitch decks all within the platform. This is your chance to see how top investment banking teams are using Hebbia.

Want to experience AI built for finance and that isn’t just a chatbot?

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. stocks closed higher, extending their rebound from last week’s sell-off after weak payrolls data.

• Nasdaq led gains, nearing record highs; S&P 500 ended just below its all-time high.

• Russell 2000 rose, erasing most of last week’s losses, though still below post-election peaks.

• Bonds sold off as the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.29% from Monday’s low of 4.19%.

• Gold prices slipped after the White House clarified gold bar imports won’t face tariffs.

Economic Data Highlights

• Trump to nominate Miran to the Fed Board, filling the remainder of Governor Kugler’s term.

• Miran is seen as supportive of rate cuts, aligning with Waller and Bowman.

• Markets are pricing a 90%+ chance of a 25 bps September rate cut, plus one more in 2025.

• Senate recess could delay confirmation until after the September FOMC meeting.

Reported Earnings

• Tempus AI (TEM) – Revenue beat expectations; strong demand for AI-driven diagnostics.

• Fubo (FUBO) – Missed on earnings but reported subscriber growth above forecasts.

• Under Armour (UA) – Matched EPS estimates; revenue fell slightly on weaker North American sales.

Earnings Today

• Monday.com (MNDY) – Focus on enterprise adoption and ARR growth trajectory.

• Plug Power (PLUG) – Watch cash burn rate and progress toward profitability.

• AMC Entertainment (AMC) – Key metrics include box office trends and debt reduction progress.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) LegalZoom ($LZ) +31% after a double upgrade from BofA Securities, citing strong subscription revenue growth and new AI partnerships.

• (–) Under Armour ($UAA) -18% because of tariff‑driven pressures; warning of significantly lower profits due to weak demand.

• (–) Sweetgreen ($SG) -23% after reporting wider-than‑expected Q2 losses, flat revenue growth, and slashing full‑year guidance.

Private Dealmaking

• CorMedix bought Melinta Therapeutics for $300 million

• Minghui Pharmaceutical, a dermatology biotech, raised $131 million

• Apreo Health, a medical device maker, raised $130 million

• Metis Technologies, a nanodelivery biotech, raised $56 million

• Small Door Veterinary, a membership-based vet care company, raised $55 million

• Legion, an AI security operations center startup, raised $38 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH

Real Estate Digest

Need help with real estate? Our official partner, Nest Seekers International, can help you buy, sell, rent, or invest, anywhere in the world. Get in touch here.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to its lowest level since April. The decline in rates has increased prospective buyers' purchasing power. Freddie Mac research has shown that buyers who rate shop can save thousands by getting quotes from different lenders.

Latest News

• How to help your child buy or inherit a home

• A huge portion of LA’s luxury home market sold all cash this spring

• 60% of homes in Manhattan over the last five months were sold all cash

New Listings

• 335 West 38th Street Apt. 3 New York, NY: 3 Bed / 3 Bath – $4.0M

• 245 E 53rd St Apt: 2 New York, NY: 2 Bed / 2 Bath – $2.0M

• 39 Greenvale Ln Southampton, NY: 4 Bed / 5 Bath – $3.0M

• 441 34th St West Palm Beach, FL: 3 Bed / 2 Bath – $1.9M

• Athens Riviera Vari, Anatoliki Attiki Greece: 3 Bed / 4.5 Bath – $4.9M

• Charneca de Caparica, Almada Portugal: 6 Bed / 9 Bath – $5.6M

BOOK OF THE DAY

All The Worst Humans

Description: A vivid, no-holds-barred memoir from a Washington PR insider who traded integrity for intrigue—and lived to tell the tale. Phil Elwood recounts the surreal and often morally bankrupt world of spinning narratives for the likes of Gaddafi's family, the Assads, and the Qataris. From orchestrating a Vegas binge with a dictator’s son to laundering reputations while crises erupted, this confessional is as much a reckoning as it is a darkly entertaining exposé.

Rating:
• Amazon: 4.3 / 5
• Goodreads: 3.9 / 5

Book Length: 272 pages
Audible Length: 6 hrs 42 mins

Ideal For: Anyone curious about the hidden mechanics of media manipulation, the corrupt intersection of influence and power, or the ethics—or lack thereof—behind headlines. Particularly compelling for communications professionals, journalists, and those drawn to gritty political memoirs.

“I tell clients: ‘Don’t be a hero. Always work to find a better villain.’”

DAILY VISUAL

Rivian Burn

Want more? Visualize the markets with Carbon Finance

PRESENTED BY CARTA

Why Some PE Firms Will Thrive (And Others Won’t Survive)

By 2030, AI won’t just be a competitive advantage, it will be the gold standard. And, the firms that don’t adopt it will likely go extinct.

Insert Carta.

They are helping top PE firms automate reporting, cut errors, and unlock deeper insights with a platform built for the future.

Their new whitepaper reveals:

• The three models of PE back-office operations—and why their hybrid tech-services approach is the future

• How their AI-driven platform is transforming fund reporting, due diligence, and deal flow for leading firms

• What agentic AI means for scaling productivity, accuracy, and service to LPs

Don’t let your firm fall behind. See how Carta is helping PE leaders set the pace for the next decade.

DAILY ACUMEN

Luck Compounding

People think luck is a coin toss.
It’s not. It’s a flywheel.

You get a tiny break. You show up for it. You deliver. That creates another one.
The people who seem “always lucky” aren’t playing the lottery. They’re playing innings.

Every DM, cold email, late-night idea—every small bet you make in public—is a lottery ticket with your name on it.

Surface area is the new resume.
Luck favors the visible.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• 23 signs someone is an American, according to Europeans

• Bosses should never speak first or second in a meeting

• The secret to life in the world’s best cities

• Across cultures, one secret to happiness stands out

• The genius guide to future-proofing your career

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

📣 Partner With Us: Get in front of an audience of over 1 million finance professionals, business leaders, and policy influencers. Submit a partnership inquiry.

📈 Grow With Us: Work directly with the Overheard on Wall Street team to scale your finance brand. Schedule your free consult.

🔒 Short Squeez Premium – Insiders: Access exclusive content, including investment analysis, wellness features, career tools, and our full recruiting resource library. Upgrade to Premium. 

🧢 Wall Street Shop: Explore our collection of finance-themed apparel and merchandise. Visit the shop.

📬 Deals Newsletter – Buysiders: A curated roundup of major M&A, private equity, and VC activity. Plus access to private deal flow. Subscribe here.

🏠 Real Estate Newsletter – City Squeez: Latest news and exclusive listings for those looking to buy, rent, or invest in real estate around the world. Sign up here.

📚 Courses: Level up with our excel, modeling, and private equity courses. View offerings.