Good Morning! Zohran Mamdani stunned Andrew Cuomo in the NYC mayoral primary. Jerome Powell is standing firm despite Trump’s attacks, reaffirming that the Fed remains in ‘wait-and-see’ mode.

Stocks are rallying on ceasefire talks, with the Nasdaq 100 hitting its first all-time high since February, driven by Nvidia nearing a record close. One Wall Street bull is now calling for another 10% rally in the S&P 500 by year-end.

Plus: Being a millionaire is kind of middle class now, the biggest winner from Circle’s IPO might be… dead, and the surprising power of having lunch with coworkers.

If you're a private equity professional, Mosaic is hosting an exclusive PE dealmakers mixer in NYC tomorrow. Request invite here.

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SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

JPMorgan Iced Out of Private Credit

Private credit has been one of Wall Street’s biggest post-crisis success stories, ballooning into a $1.7 trillion asset class since the 2008 meltdown.

In 2025, it’s still fueling LBOs, offering juicy double-digit yields, and starting to attract retail investors. The major players: Blackstone, Ares, Apollo, are thriving. But the biggest bank on Wall Street? Still locked out.

JPMorgan has been trying to break in for over a year. Traders routinely send out “runs,” wishlists of private loans they want to buy, only to be met with near-total silence. One recent run listed 14 loans with $5 million buy interest each. The total that came back? $3.3 million, most of it from deals JPM underwrote themselves.

And this isn’t about pricing. JPMorgan is willing to pay up. The issue is power. The top private credit shops built this market after the GFC, and they like it exactly how it is: tight-knit, opaque, and controlled. Letting JPM in would mean loosening their grip, and potentially unraveling the very appeal of private credit.

That’s because JPMorgan’s ambitions go beyond just buying loans. The bank wants to create an actual trading market, with transparency, daily pricing, and liquidity. To some, that’s long overdue.

To others, it’s a threat to the entire model. If these loans start trading, they’ll start getting marked to market. Volatility enters the chat. Suddenly, private credit starts to resemble its less-sexy cousin: high-yield.

Despite a $50 billion lending war chest and partnerships with Apollo and others, JPMorgan’s broader effort is still stalling. Many private equity sponsors, worried about exposing valuations or losing control of who owns their debt, are actively asking the bank to stop listing their deals altogether.

As one trader put it: just because you want an ostrich to fly doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.

Takeaway: JPMorgan wants to modernize private credit, but the incumbents are in no rush to help. Still, the bank holds the keys to IPOs, bond offerings, and long-standing corporate relationships. If they decide to flex, access to those deals could come with strings attached. For now, though, they remain on the sidelines, armed with cash and unanswered emails.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Zohran Mamdani stuns Andrew Cuomo in NYC mayor primary (BBC)

• Powell emphasizes Fed’s obligation to prevent ‘ongoing inflation problem’ (CNBC)

• Exuberant investors ignore turmoil at their own risk (Axios)

• Nvidia hits highest level since January, nears record close (YF)

• Wall Street bull calls for another 10% rally in S&P 500 by end of 2025 (YF)

• The Fed sees biggest divide over rate cuts in years (Axios)

• Krispy Kreme, McDonald's part ways (CNBC)

• China’s wealth fund pulls plug on $1B private equity sale (BB)

• Being a millionaire is kind of middle class now (Axios)

• Founder of one of Asia’s biggest hedge funds helping it beat global rivals (BB)

• Home price hikes are slowing more than expected (CNBC)

• Jim Cramer says AI stocks are climbing as DeepSeek threat recedes (CNBC)

• Private equity firms pursue Asian loans to fund investor payouts (BB)

• Circle stock sinks as 750% boom finally shows cracks (YF)

• Circle's IPO euphoria revives debate over the stock "pop" (Axios)

• The Circle IPO's strangest winner (Axios)

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CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. equity markets closed higher Tuesday, following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, reducing geopolitical tensions.

• 10‑year Treasury yield fell to 4.29%, retreating from its May peak.

• Tech and financials led the day, while energy and consumer staples lagged.

• Asian and European markets rallied, supported by improved global sentiment.

• Oil prices declined, easing inflation pressures.

Economic Data Highlights

• Home Prices (April): S&P Case‑Shiller 20‑City index fell 0.3% MoM, with annual gains slowing to 3.4%.

• Shelter inflation eased, helping keep CPI shelter pressure contained.

• Consumer Confidence (June): Conference Board index dropped to 93.0; 12-month inflation expectations cooled to 6.0%.

• Home‑buying sentiment weakened, while intentions to buy cars remained stable.

Reported Earnings

• Carnival (CCL) – June 24: Cruise bookings held steady, supported by resilient demand despite higher fuel costs.

• FedEx (FDX) – June 24: Mixed results as freight operations faced headwinds but e-commerce volumes remained robust.

Earnings Today

• Paychex (PAYX) – Reporting June 25 (Before Market Open): Investors are watching payroll growth and client retention amid a softening labor market.

• Micron Technology (MU) – Reporting June 25 (After Market Close): Expected to highlight strong AI-related memory demand and improving pricing.

• Jefferies Financial (JEF) – Reporting June 25 (After Market Close): Key focus on investment banking performance and strength in wealth and asset management.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Coinbase ($COIN) +12% after stablecoin momentum; a crypto rally.

• (+) Uber ($UBER) +8% because Uber, Waymo robotaxi service opens to passengers in Atlanta.

• (–) Circle Internet Group ($CRCL) -15% after the company’s IPO rally loses steam.

Private Dealmaking

• C&S Wholesale Grocers bought SpartanNash for $1.77 billion

• Halter, maker of smart cow collars, raises $100 million

• Digital Asset, a blockchain startup, raised $135 million

• Finom, a Dutch neobank, raised $133 million

• Conquest Planning, a financial planning software provider, raised $80 million

• Standard Nuclear, a nuclear fuel reactor provider, raised $42 million

• Browserbase, a "headless browser" startup, raised $40 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Buy Back Your Time

Description: A cornerstone guide for entrepreneurs and leaders who aim to scale their business and their lives. Martell shares proven frameworks—like the Buyback Principle, DRIP Matrix, and Replacement Ladder—that help you delegate, automate, and craft a “perfect week” to regain time and energy while growing your empire.

Rating:
• Amazon/Audible: 4.5 / 5
• Goodreads: 4.4 / 5

Book Length: 272 pages (hardcover)
Audible Length: 8 hr 4 min

Ideal For: Entrepreneurs, small business owners, executives, and high-achievers who feel strapped by overwhelm, drowning in tasks, and eager to reclaim their time—and amplify impact.

“Buy back your time—not just for your business, but for your life.”

DAILY VISUAL

Most Valuable Drugmakers

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DAILY ACUMEN

The Algorithm

Every scroll is a vote.

Every click, a quiet instruction to your brain—and to the algorithm—that says, “more of this, please.”

Over time, those micro-decisions shape your mental landscape.

Negative content doesn’t just drag you down emotionally—it trains your brain to expect threat, outrage, and despair.

But the opposite is also true.

Joyful, hopeful, even silly content can rewire your attention toward possibility, gratitude, and growth.

It’s not just what you see on your feed—it’s what you’re feeding your mind.

If you want to change how you feel, start with what you click. Because every scroll shapes your story.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• 8 soft skills for climbing the corporate ladder

• If you’ve lived through these 8 experiences, you’re more resilient than most

• How to demote an employee

• The power of having lunch with coworkers 

• How to power productivity 

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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