Good Morning! Markets ripped on Friday as investors penciled in a September rate cut. The U.S. government is officially taking a 10% stake in Intel. Investors are starting to wonder if it’s time to cash out of AI stocks. And Spain’s economy is booming as a rare outlier despite global slowdown fears.

Private equity keeps finding new tricks to hand cash back to investors. Businesses are rolling out “recession specials,” a warning sign for consumer sentiment. And energy drinks are winning share as coffee and soda prices climb.

Plus: Women’s earnings never fully recover after having kids, Eric Adams called Mamdani “Mamscrawny” after a failed 135-lb bench attempt, and welcome to the lucrative era of AI slop.

Our partners at Kalshi allow you to trade the odds of a September rate cut. Check out their market here.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Jefferies Puts Price Tag on Teamwork

Jefferies has thrived as the last frontier for Wall Street dealmakers. The bank poached aggressively from rivals, let hires chase their own mandates, and rewarded rainmakers with outsized payouts. The formula worked: rack up the biggest deals, take home the biggest bonuses. And if you missed? That was your problem.

It’s how Jefferies grew into the last independent major broker-dealer, carving out a niche in mid-sized private equity deals while doling out $385M in cash bonuses in 2024.

Now, leadership wants a reset. At a recent offsite, President Brian Friedman told managing directors that collaboration is no longer optional if they want full bonuses. The new motto: “share or lose.” No more siloed rainmakers hoarding relationships.

The shift comes as Jefferies sets its sights higher, aiming to break into the multi-billion-dollar corporate M&A traditionally dominated by Goldman, JPMorgan, and elite boutiques. The push has momentum: Jefferies has grown its MD ranks by 70% since 2019, and in 1H25 it ranked 6th in global M&A league tables, even ahead of Bank of America and Barclays.

The bank’s trademark has always been cash-heavy bonuses (and sharp clawbacks), but management hopes a team-based model will unlock even bigger mandates.

Still, skeptics note that cultural change takes years, not one comp tweak. Moving from a culture built on individual dealmaking and personal paydays to one that rewards sharing clients and credit is a heavy lift.

Collective bonus structures can alienate top producers if they feel they’re subsidizing peers, while weak results risk defections to rivals.

Takeaway: Jefferies is betting team spirit can push it deeper into Wall Street’s top tier, but turning a shark tank into a school of fish requires more than tweaking bonuses, it requires reshaping culture and testing bankers’ patience and loyalty. And let’s be real: bankers don’t exactly have a reputation for group projects.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Powell says Fed may need to cut rates, will proceed carefully (CNN)

• Intel announces $89B U.S. government investment (YF)

• Investors weigh whether it's time to dump AI stocks (FT)

• Credit investors are pouring billions into AI, stoking fresh bubble fears (BB) 

• Why Spain’s economy is thriving despite global slowdown (CNBC)

• Private equity’s cash crunch spawns even more exotic financing (BB)

• Energy drink makers pivot to offering value alongside caffeine kick (WSJ)

• Recession specials pop up as consumer sentiment deteriorates (CNBC)

• Zohran Mamdani fails at bench press (NYP)

• Coca-Cola is exploring the sale of Costa Coffee (Guardian)

• JPMorgan’s private credit secondaries head departs (BB)

• Blackstone approached on Justrite debt after bank deal sputters (BB)

• Goldman Sachs backs Dayforce buyout with $6B of debt (BB)

• Liquidity maneuvers spark indigestion worries for private equity (Times)

• Trump hints TikTok divestment law enforcement may extend longer (YF)

• How Weijian Shan went from hard labor to private equity (BB)

• Women’s earnings take a hit from having kids, Wharton economist finds (BB)

• Eaton Corporation hack leads to prison sentence (NYT)

• They’re rich, they travel, and love to complain (NYT)

• Creators making bank from AI slop videos (WP)

PRESENTED BY KALSHI

Jackson Hole or Gains-ville?

Markets surged after Fed Chair Powell signaled a potential shift in policy, stating: “With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”

The implied probability of a 25bps cut at the September 17 meeting jumped from ~58 % to ~80 %. Investors are repositioning, and Kalshi offers a way to trade the outcome directly.

Kalshi lets you capitalize on real-time shifts in Fed expectations with institutional-grade event contracts.

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. stocks rallied into new highs, with the Dow surging after Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks hinted at a September rate cut.

• Small-caps outperformed, jumping nearly 4%, with cyclicals and value-style stocks leading.

• Consumer discretionary stocks led the S&P 500, supported by expectations of easier policy.

• Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year dropping as investors priced in higher odds of easing.

• Dollar weakened broadly, while WTI oil held near $63/barrel.

Economic Data Highlights

• At Jackson Hole, Powell acknowledged softer labor data, stating that “the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”

• Markets now price ~80% probability of a September rate cut, up from 70% a week ago.

• Policy remains data dependent, with one CPI and jobs report due before the Fed’s September 17 meeting.

• Potential beneficiaries of a Fed pivot: homebuilders, real estate, financials, and consumer discretionary.

Reported Earnings

• No significant earnings reported Friday

Earnings Today

• PDD Holdings (PDD) – Focus on Temu’s growth, international expansion, and margin outlook.

• Heico (HEI) – Watch aerospace and defense backlog trends, plus margin recovery.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Opendoor Technologies ($OPEN) +10% after rate cut optimism boosts hope for the real estate company.

• (+) Zoom Communications ($ZM) +13% because the communications technology company posted an earnings beat.

• (–) BJ's Wholesale Club ($BJ) -9% after sales at the membership-only warehouse club chain slowed.

Private Dealmaking

• Ontic, a protective intelligence platform, raised $230 million

• Restor3d, a 3D-printed orthopedic implants developer, raised $104 million

• Midas, an investment platform, raised $80 million

• Stark, a weaponized drone maker, raised $62 million

• Kasa, a provider of flexible accommodations, raised $40 million

• Keychain, a manufacturing platform for CPG companies, raised $30 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

NEIGHBHORHOOD WATCH

Real Estate Digest

Need help with real estate? Our official partner, Nest Seekers International, can help you buy, sell, rent, or invest, anywhere in the world. Get in touch here.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stayed completely flat week over week after falling for five consecutive weeks to its lowest levels of 2025. Purchase application activity continues to outpace 2024 activity with buyers anticipated to re-enter the market following the end of Labor Day.

Latest News

• Understanding mortgage options and the comeback of the ARM

• Existing home sales inched up in July

• Foreigners continue to buy US homes

• Fix and flip real estate investors are pulling back

Private Dealmaking

• 245 E 53rd St Apt: 2 New York, NY: 2 Bed / 2 Bath – $2.0M

• 22 Terrace Ct Old Westbury, NY: 6 Bed / 6 Bath – $8.7M

• 600 Alton Rd Apt: 1005 Miami Beach, FL: 1 Bed / 1 Bath – $1.3M

• La Mairena Ojén, Málaga Spain: 5 Bed / 6 Bath – $4.1M

• 28 Ocean Club Estates Bahamas: 5 Bed / 6 Bath – $4.3M

BOOK OF THE DAY

Stay Sane in an Insane World

Description: A powerful playbook from one of sports’ most influential mentors. Drawing on over three decades helping elite athletes—from Tom Brady to Michael Phelps—Harden teaches us how to master what we can control: our emotions, responses, habits, and mindset. This isn’t about performance; it’s about finding personal clarity, resilience, and fulfillment in even the most chaotic circumstances.

Rating: 
Amazon 4.6 / 5
Goodreads 4.3 / 5

Book Length: 210 pages
Audiobook Length: 5 hrs 41 mins

Ideal For: Anyone feeling overwhelmed—professionals in high-stress roles, athletes, caregivers, or anyone looking to stay centered and intentional when life goes off-script.

“Fear and self-doubt are the enemy. As soon as you learn they are predictable, they become manageable.”

DAILY VISUAL

Nancy Pelosi Capital

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PRESENTED BY CARTA

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DAILY ACUMEN

Mean Reversion

Markets swing too high, then snap back.

Human emotions do the same.

We chase euphoria when things go well, despair when they don’t, forgetting that both are deviations from the mean.

The investor’s edge is emotional calibration: knowing that neither joy nor fear lasts forever, and positioning accordingly.

In your own life, mean reversion is a reminder that temporary wins or losses don’t define the arc.

Missed an opportunity? Another cycle will come. Riding high on success? Expect volatility.

The discipline is to keep investing—time, effort, money—even when the emotional tape tells you otherwise.

Buffett says the market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.

You could say life is the same.

If you can outlast the swings, you eventually return to equilibrium, stronger and wiser for the volatility.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Try ‘batching’ to crush chore overload 

• 9 daily habits that quietly make you smarter & more creative 

• The viral hack that turns hard tasks into dopamine triggers

• How to halve your workday using time blocking 

• Make your bed, boost your mood with a 1-minute routine 

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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