Good morning! The S&P 500 is now up ~2% YTD after rebounding 20% from April lows. Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating over rising debt. Scott Bessent clapped back, calling Moody's a lagging indicator.

Elsewhere: Steve Cohen still puts U.S. recession odds at 45%, Charter and Cox are merging in a mega $34.5B cable deal, and Trump wants Walmart to “eat the tariffs.”

Plus: the PE carried interest loophole faces a new hurdle, tech IPOs are showing signs of life, and a father-son duo got sentenced for their $100M New Jersey deli fraud.

Cytonics is developing a drug to tackle joint pain. Learn about their raise and join them as an investor.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Jamie’s Last Move

Today is JPMorgan Chase’s investor day. And you can be certain…some investors are going to urge Jamie Dimon to reconsider his retirement timeline.

Dimon is the undisputed face of JPMorgan. He’s led the bank since 2006, brilliantly navigated the 2008 financial crisis, and put the bank on a path towards a $1 trillion market cap. 

He’s also been a voice of reason. Just last month, Trump paused his “Liberation Day” tariffs only hours after Dimon told Maria Bartiromo a recession could be coming.

But with Dimon now 69 and hinting at retirement, analysts and investors are starting to speak out publicly.

Wells Fargo’s Mike Mayo recently urged, “Jamie Dimon, do not go!” Another shareholder asked him to stay through the next election. While Dimon has suggested stepping down in a few years is his “base case,” some clearly want more.

The public pressure for JPMorgan to find the right successor is real. Analysts like BofA’s Ebrahim Poonawala have called Dimon’s succession the “single biggest idiosyncratic risk factor” for JPMorgan’s stock. 

Dimon's retirement wouldn’t just be about JPMorgan losing a CEO. It would be about replacing someone with both an impeccable track record (20% average returns since 2006) and strong political clout.

Takeaway: While JPMorgan has floated some possible successors, his departure could be an existential threat to the stock. As one shareholder put it: “If he stays as long as he wants, that would be fine.”

But for now, the question isn’t who will replace Dimon but rather if anyone can.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Moody's downgrades US credit rating over rising debt (Fox)

• Bessent calls Moody's a 'lagging indicator' after U.S. credit downgrade (NBC)

• Bessent says tariff rates could return to ‘reciprocal’ levels (CNN)

• Trump threatens Walmart, demands it "eat the tariffs" (Axios)

• Trump wants to kill the carried interest loophole (Axios)

• Steve Cohen sees US recession probability at 45% (BB)

• Trump and MBS pledge $1T in commercial deals (BB)

• Father-son duo sentenced over $100M New Jersey deli fraud (CNBC)

• Novo ousts CEO Jorgensen after Lilly competition hits shares (CNBC)

• Capital One finishes Discover acquisition after 15-month journey (YF)

• Cable companies Charter and Cox agree to merge (CNBC)

• Anthropic closes $2.5 billion credit facility (CNBC)

• Federal Reserve to reduce staff by 10% (Axios)

• Tariff, AI worries loom as Silicon Valley's conference season begins (YF)

• Tech IPO market is finally showing signs of life (CNBC)

• Tesla stock soars for 4th straight week thanks to new Musk pay package (YF)

• World’s tallest apartment building will have 154 floors (NYP)

• Cava defies dining slowdown (CNBC)

PRESENTED BY CYTONICS

Can This Startup Do for Joint Pain What Ozempic Did for Weight Loss?

Osteoarthritis affects over 30 million Americans, yet nearly all treatments just mask the pain. Cytonics is doing something different: it’s developing a drug that targets the actual cause of joint damage.

Their therapy, CYT-108, is designed to block the enzymes that eat away at cartilage, potentially stopping osteoarthritis before it gets worse and encouraging cartilage repair.

They’ve already raised $25M+ from “everyday” investors (no VC or Big Pharma). And with early clinical trials now underway, Cytonics could be positioned at the forefront of a new generation of treatments for joint degeneration.

This is your chance to invest* in a startup aiming to rewrite the playbook on pain.

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. stocks rose Friday, closing out a strong week as trade tensions eased and investor sentiment improved.

• Health care and utility stocks led, while the S&P 500 finished the week up 1.5% year-to-date, and mid-cap stocks up 2.4%.

• Bond yields declined, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.44%, reflecting tempered inflation expectations.

• Asian markets were mixed, after Japan's GDP contracted for the first time in a year. European equities advanced, with Germany’s DAX index hitting a new all-time high.

• The U.S. dollar strengthened, while WTI crude climbed further above $60, supported by improving trade sentiment.

Economic Data Highlights

• Housing Starts (Apr): Rose slightly to 1.36M – just below 1.38M estimate

• Building Permits: Fell to 1.41M – softer than expected

• 30-year Mortgage Rate: Holding at 6.81% – elevated but stabilizing

• Shelter CPI Inflation: Still elevated at 4.0% YoY – slowing, but above headline inflation (2.3%)

• Consumer Sentiment (May, prelim): Fell to 50.8 – lowest since 2022; near-term inflation expectations jumped to 7.3%

• Tariffs: Cited by ~75% of surveyed consumers as a driver of inflation fears

Reported Earnings

• No major companies reported earnings on Friday.

Earnings Today

• ZIM Integrated Shipping (ZIM) – Reporting May 19 (Before Market Open): Investors watching for pricing power, volume guidance, and tariff-related commentary.

• Trip.com Group (TCOM) – Reporting May 19 (After Market Close): Focus on recovery in outbound tourism and booking trends within China.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Virgin Galactic ($SPCE) +43% after the space tourism company announced it would resume spaceflights.

• (+) CoreWeave ($CRWV) +22% because of strong earnings; Nvidia disclosed a larger stake in the data center provider.

• (–) Applied Materials ($AMAT) -5% after the semiconductor company missed on earnings.

Private Dealmaking

• Charter Communications acquired Cox for $34.5 billion

• Commonwealth Fusion Systems, a power fusion startup, raised $1 billion

• Pathos AI, a tumor drug biotech, raised $365 million

• Stord, a supply chain company, raised $200 million

• ZeroAvia, an airplane engines developer, raised $150 million

• Flock Freight, a truckload freight brokerage, raised $60 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH

Real Estate Digest

Need assistance with real estate? Our official partner, Nest Seekers International, can help you buy, sell, rent, or invest, anywhere in the world. Get in touch here.

Mortgage rates rose slightly week over week and remain below the 7% threshold for the 17th straight week. Stable rates along with moderately rising inventory are attracting homebuyers into the market, with purchase application activity up 18% YoY.

Latest News

• Stock market volatility is a boon for real estate

• Tallest NYC tower to lease its highest floors for the first time

• Manhattan rents at record high (again)

New Listings

• 30 Glenby Ln, Brookville Glen Head, NY: 5 Bed / 4.5 Bath - $2.4M

• 441 34th St West Palm Beach, FL: 3 Bed / 2 Bath - $1.8M

• South Caicos, Turks & Caicos Islands: 2 Bed - $1.9M

• Vila Nova de Gaia, Porto, Portugal: 4 Bed / 3.5 Bath - $3.9M

BOOK OF THE DAY

Rich Girl Nation

Women experience money differently than men do.

In the United States, women have only 55 cents for every dollar of wealth held by men, are more likely to end up in poverty following a divorce, and are less likely to retire with the resources they need.

What can women do to build wealth and claim financial power in a system that wasn’t designed for them?

Katie Gatti Tassin, personal finance writer and host of the popular podcast The Money with Katie Show, has built an energized following of smart, ambitious women seeking a deeper understanding of the financial issues that affect them.

In Rich Girl Nation, Tassin deconstructs the unique challenges women face on their journey to financial freedom, offering context and nuanced guidance on money matters.

“From the founder of Money with Katie, a leveled-up finance guide for ambitious women everywhere—and a rallying cry for a new money movement.”

DAILY VISUAL

Median Age of Homebuyers Now 56

The median age of all homebuyers is now 56 years old, up from 31 in 1981

PRESENTED BY MOSAIC

CIM Screenshot to LBO

Imagine a world where you can take a screenshot of a CIM, upload it, and—ta-da—a full LBO model is ready in seconds. Well, that future is here.

Mosaic’s LBO platform lets you upload a CIM screenshot, input your assumptions, and generate a bid-ready model in just minutes. See it in action here.

You can also add a dividend recap, earnout, or M&A tuck-in in seconds. And with a built-in chatbot analyst, even MD comments get updated instantly.

Top firms like Evercore and CVC already use Mosaic to build LBO models in mere minutes. It's time that you do too.

DAILY ACUMEN

Legends Series: Jesse Livermore

Jesse Livermore was the original trader’s trader.

Operating in the early 1900s, he made and lost multiple fortunes, most famously shorting the 1929 crash for $100 million—nearly $1.7 billion today.

But Livermore’s real genius wasn’t just market timing.

It was understanding how human emotion drives price.

In his autobiography Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Livermore described markets as battles between hope and fear.

He didn’t just watch charts—he read crowd behavior.

He once said, “The market is never wrong—opinions often are.”

Today, investor sentiment is shifting quickly.

Livermore’s edge?

Patience and pattern recognition.

He waited for the tape to confirm the trend, then acted aggressively.

He didn’t trade for action—he traded for asymmetry. 

Don’t let impatience dictate your timing.

Let price action confirm the story.

And never confuse noise for signal.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• 7 signs you’re dealing with a problematic new manager

• When leaders focus on vision, it propels company growth

• How to rethink success in your career

• How Gibson’s law makes it hard to trust experts

• Is treadmill running easier?

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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