Good Morning! Robinhood’s nearly 500% one-year rally isn’t slowing down, with the stock jumping 15% after its long-sought addition to the S&P 500. Goldman says the U.S. economy is stuck at “stall speed” and will need a few rate cuts to regain momentum.

On Main Street, falling lumber prices are flashing recession signals and pointing to a construction slowdown. PNC is buying FirstBank for $4.1B, SpaceX is acquiring $17B in spectrum licenses from EchoStar to expand Starlink’s 5G connectivity, and KKR’s CFO expects PE consolidation amid a prolonged slowdown in dealmaking.

Plus: The AI boom is leaving consultants behind, New York’s Airbnb crackdown hasn’t made housing any cheaper, and, seriously, stop saying “um” so much.

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SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Investor Relations Having Its Moment

Private equity may be stuck on exits, but firms are opening their wallets and going all-in on fundraising talent.

A recent report by Magellan Advisory Partners notes that recruitment in the first half of 2025 was led by fundraising, investor relations, and marketing roles. With U.S. fundraising volumes slowing and funds taking longer to close, firms are aggressively bulking up these teams to strengthen LP relationships and expand investor reach.

The demand is strongest at the mid- to senior-level, where there’s a shortage of experienced fundraisers and capital raisers.

Competition for this talent has been fierce, pushing up compensation as GPs prioritize professionals who can immediately bring investor networks and proven track records.

Junior hiring remained competitive, but Magellan found the real story in the scramble for senior profiles. Many firms delayed their hiring cycles early in the year, only to accelerate once it became clear that securing capital would remain challenging.

In the U.S., overall hiring has already surpassed 2022–23 levels, though some megafunds have pulled back from ultra-early recruiting of junior bankers after industry pushback.

The broader U.S. hiring environment in early 2025 was described as “cautiously bullish.” Deal activity started strong in Q1 before tariff turbulence slowed things in Q2, but overall volumes still outpaced the very slow mid-2022/2023 period. Fundraising and distribution hires were the most consistent area of investment, as firms recognized they cannot afford to fall behind in capital formation.

Takeaway: In today’s market, fundraising teams aren’t just back-office support, they are essential to the firm’s survival. With dry powder near record highs and returns under pressure, the firms that win will be those securing the talent to keep capital flowing and position themselves for tomorrow’s deals.

“While deal flow is cyclical, the need to secure capital is permanent, firms are investing ahead of the curve,” said Sasha Jensen, founder and CEO of Jensen Partners.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Robinhood stock rallies to record high ahead of S&P 500 inclusion (YF)

• Goldman Sachs chief economist warns U.S. economy is at “stall speed” (YF)

• KKR CFO sees PE Firm consolidation (BB)

• Lumber prices flash warning sign for the U.S. economy (WSJ)

• PNC to acquire Colorado regional bank in $4.1B deal (WSJ)

• SpaceX buys wireless spectrum from EchoStar in $17 billion deal (Axios)

• Startup bets PE-style deals will kick-start crypto adoption (WSJ)

• AI boom leaves consultants behind (WSJ)

• NYC’s Airbnb crackdown hasn’t boosted housing supply after two years (WSJ)

• Salesforce must prove its software remains relevant in the AI era (WSJ)

• Nasdaq seeks SEC approval to trade tokenized stocks (BB)

• Scaramucci’s New Orleans hotel bet turns into bust for Opportunity Zone backers (BB)

• OpenAI expected to burn $115B through 2029  (CNBC)

• Apollo and Ares provide $4B private credit deal to Leaf Home (BB)

• Hedge funds’ next “Big Short” appears to be industrials (CNBC)

• Federal prosecutors charge financier who promised guaranteed high yields (WSJ)

• Tech giants pay millions in escalating AI talent war (CNBC)

• Nvidia gets price target cut from Citi as AI competition intensifies (CNBC)

• AI reshapes entry-level job market and hiring trends (CNBC)

• BMW and Mercedes’ new EV SUVs take aim at Tesla (WSJ)

• Gold rises on expectations of Fed rate cut (WSJ)

• Trump condemns killing of Ukrainian woman in Charlotte after video release (TH)

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CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. stocks edged higher to start the week, helped by lower interest rates and strength in international markets.

• Japanese equities rallied after Prime Minister Ishiba announced his resignation, while European markets gained ahead of a confidence vote in France that ultimately resulted in the French PM’s resignation.

• 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.04%, the lowest since April, while the dollar weakened.

• Oil prices rose following OPEC+’s agreement to modestly increase production next month; gold hit another record high.

Economic Data Highlights

• Investors are focused on inflation data later this week as the final input before the September FOMC meeting.

• September rate cut fully priced in; August CPI and PPI will determine how much flexibility the Fed has for further easing.

• Payroll benchmark revisions due tomorrow are expected to show as many as 800K fewer job gains through March, which would reinforce pressure on the Fed to ease policy.

Reported Earnings

• Planet Labs (PL) – Revenue grew on government contract strength; losses narrowed modestly, keeping path to profitability in focus.

• Casey’s (CASY) – Fuel margins and in-store sales both topped expectations; prepared food segment showed strong growth.

Earnings Today

• Rubrik (RBRK) – Focus on subscription ARR growth, customer retention, and security platform expansion.

• Oracle (ORCL) – Key watch: cloud revenue growth, AI-driven database demand, and margin expansion.

• GameStop (GME) – Investors watching same-store sales trends, digital sales mix, and cost controls.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) EchoStar ($SATS) +20% after announcing a $17B deal with SpaceX.

• (+) Robinhood ($HOOD) +16% because the stock trading company will be included in the S&P 500.

• (–) CVS Health ($CVS) -5% after execs failed to provide guidance on government ratings.

Private Dealmaking

• PNC Financial agreed to buy FirstBank for $4.1 billion

• Mistral, a foundational AI startup, raised $1.4 billion

• Databricks, a data and AI platform, raised $1 billion

• X Square Robot, a developer of robot “brains,” raised $140 million

• Kin Insurance, a home insurer, raised $50 million

• Octave Bioscience, a biotech focused on multiple sclerosis, raised $35 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

The Compounders

Description:
A masterclass in quiet yet powerful growth. This book reveals the untold stories of nine under-the-radar conglomerates that turned modest acquisitions and savvy capital allocation into staggering returns—think 375×, 1,100×, even 7,500× gains. With nearly two decades of ground-level investing experience behind it, the book deconstructs how disciplined, decentralized cultures and long-term thinking can generate generational shareholder wealth.

Book Length: 236 pages
Release Date: September 2, 2025

Ideal For:
Investors, business leaders, analysts, and anyone fascinated by the mechanics of compounding value—not through hype but through deliberate, small-scale acquisitions and reinvestment strategy.

“The blueprint for turning small acquisitions into generational wealth—the proven, counterintuitive strategies behind the world’s greatest compounding machines.”

DAILY VISUAL

Extreme Concentration in the S&P 500

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Ramp, a Vanta customer, recently secured $500 million in funding at a $22.5 billion valuation. Vanta itself closed a Series D at a $4.15 billion valuation, proof that the platform delivers results for fast-growing teams.

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DAILY ACUMEN

Terminal Value

When valuing a company, most of its worth comes not from next year’s earnings but from decades of future cash flows—the terminal value.

People forget this about themselves.

We over-optimize for today’s paycheck, today’s title, today’s likes.

But the habits, skills, and networks you invest in compound far beyond this quarter.

Each book you read, each skill you master, each person you help is a contribution to your personal terminal value, the version of you that exists 10, 20, 30 years from now.

Don’t sell your future for a small pop today.

Play the game as if you’re building an entity meant to last.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• The interview playbook 

• How to tell if someone’s truly empathetic 

• Resilience beats positivity 

• Stop saying “um”  

• Arthur Brooks’ business plan for happiness 

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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