🍋 The Hard Tech Era (996 Culture)

Plus: Jon Gray says new analysts need to ‘work harder’ and be nice, StubHub’s IPO is reportedly 20x oversubscribed, and Cantor has doubled size of investment bank.

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“The most important part of every plan is planning on your plan not going according to plan.” — Morgan Housel

Good Morning! StubHub’s IPO is reportedly 20x oversubscribed, targeting a $9.2 billion valuation. The Winklevoss twins’ Gemini popped 14% on debut, and they still expect Bitcoin to hit $1 million within 10 years.

Cantor Fitzgerald has doubled its investment bank headcount in the past 18 months and plans further expansion. The ultrawealthy including Thiel and Altman have invested more than $5B into life extension startups. Armani’s heirs have been ordered to sell the fashion house under the late designer’s will.

Plus: Coffee prices are spiking at the fastest pace in decades, Jon Gray says new analysts must “work harder” (and be nice), JPM sees buybacks up another $600B after a $1.5T record, and do private markets really beat public ones?

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SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

The Hard Tech Era (996 Culture)

Silicon Valley’s hammock-and-kombucha era is over. The AI boom has ushered in what insiders are calling the hard tech age, and with it, a revival of brutal work culture once thought confined to Wall Street or China’s “996” grind.

The mythology of cushy Big Tech jobs (free sushi, beanbag brainstorms, afternoons at the office keg) is now ancient history.

In San Francisco, the new startup gospel is harsher: no booze, no sleep, no fun. Founders and early employees are clocking 90–100 hour weeks, sleeping on air mattresses or in converted office pods, and wearing discipline like a badge of honor.

One founder skipped his own graduation to start a company; another cut vacation short because he was too stressed not working.

A Columbia dropout hires only people willing to work seven days a week, gifting new hires a mattress on day one. A Stanford junior dropped out after deciding lectures were a waste of time compared to raising $50 million.

Meals are delivered via Uber Eats or prepped by health-obsessed gurus, workouts happen at Barry’s boot camp, and social life is mostly other founders swapping funding strategies at bathhouses.

The work ethic mirrors China’s infamous “996” schedule: 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week, and data backs it up: Ramp reports show corporate card spending on meals is spiking on Saturdays.

The message is clear: the weekend doesn’t exist anymore.

This intensity is partly generational. Today’s 20-something founders grew up coding as teens, idolizing The Social Network, and carrying iPhones before they could drive.

They’re not trying to be another engineer at Apple, they want to build the next trillion-dollar company, even if the software itself isn’t saving the world. For many, the chase itself is the fun.

PayPal’s “sleeping under desks” story worked once, but how long can founders burn at this pace before they burn out? Investors may admire the optics of sacrifice, but billion-dollar companies eventually need leaders who can last longer than a sprint.

Takeaway: The new AI founder gospel is simple: no booze, no sleep, no fun. For now, it is a sign of seriousness in a city flooded with hype. The real question: will this relentless focus produce lasting empires, or just another generation of sleep-deprived founders who confuse burnout with brilliance?

HEADLINES

Top Reads

  • JPMorgan sees U.S. corporate buybacks hitting record, rising another $600B (BB)

  • The billionaires fueling the quest for a longer life (WSJ)

  • StubHub’s IPO 20x oversubscribed, source says (USN)

  • Giorgio Armani’s will puts shopping brand on the block (Axios)

  • Why Wall Street is okay with a little sticky inflation (Axios)

  • Winklevoss twins predict Bitcoin could hit $1M within 10 years (CNBC)

  • Coffee prices haven’t surged this much in decades (CNN)

  • Blackstone exec says new analysts need to ‘work harder’ and be nice (Fortune)

  • Does private equity really offer better returns? (CNN)

  • Jamie Dimon says his successors needs to be the pied piper (Fortune)

  • David Cameron joins Jeb Bush’s private equity firm (PEI)

  • The NFL has leadership lessons for CEOs (BB)

  • Albania's prime minister appoints an AI-generated 'minister' to tackle corruption (NBC)

  • Gemini, the Winklevoss crypto exchange, pops in Nasdaq debut (CNBC)

  • Tesla's board chair says no restraints on Elon Musk's political activities (Axios)

  • Swatch takes swipe at Trump’s 39% tariff with altered watch design (CNBC)

  • Tesla engineer resigns, citing frustrations with Musk’s leadership (BB)

  • Cantor doubles investment bank size, eyes more growth ahead (BB)

  • European defense VCs push to rearm the continent (CNBC)

  • Stablecoin talent war sends Wall Street pay soaring (BB)

  • IBM is leading the way in quantum computer race (WSJ)

  • Wall Street expects rally in riskiest stocks to last 12 months (BB)

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CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

 

Market Update

  • U.S. markets were mixed, with the Nasdaq up 0.4%, the S&P 500 flat, and the Dow down 0.6%.

  • European and Japanese equities were higher, with the Nikkei up nearly 1%.

  • 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.06%, near the low end of its 2025 range.

  • Dollar strengthened slightly, while WTI oil rallied on concerns over possible disruptions to Russian supply from Ukrainian drone attacks.

Economic Data Highlights

  • Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to its lowest level since May, with rising concerns over inflation and job security.

  • 5–10-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.9%, from 3.5% in August, signaling consumer anxiety about price pressures.

  • Labor market concerns rose, with more respondents citing fears of job loss, consistent with recent jobless claims data showing a softening trend.

Macro Focus

  • Fed meeting next week is fully priced for a 25 bps cut.

  • Markets will be watching the updated dot plot for signals about the pace of rate cuts in 2025–26.

  • Chair Powell’s comments on balancing inflation risks vs. employment risks could reassure investors that the Fed is committed to preventing a deeper downturn.

Earnings Today

  • No significant earnings scheduled

Movers & Shakers

  • (+) IONQ Inc. ($IONQ) +18% after the quantum computing was cleared to buy Oxford Ionics.

  • (+) Tesla ($TSLA) +7% because interest rate cut optimism boosts car buying hope.

  • (–) Restoration Hardware ($RH) -5% after the furniture retailer cut its annual guidance.

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NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH

Real Estate Digest

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The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 15 basis points from last week, which was the largest weekly drop in the past year. Mortgage rates are headed in the right direction and homebuyers have noticed, as purchase applications reached the highest year-over-year growth rate in more than four years.

Latest News

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BOOK OF THE DAY

There’s Gotta Be a Better Way

Description: A leadership tool for clearing organizational chaos. This book introduces the discipline of Dynamic Work Design—a framework built from case studies in hospitals, labs, refineries, and non-profits—to eliminate busywork, fire-fighting, and inefficiencies. Through five core principles, leaders can align what matters most, streamline processes, and reclaim energy and focus in daily work.

Book Length: 320 pages
Release Date: August 26, 2025

Ideal For: Executives, managers, operations leads, and anyone who feels overwhelmed by “urgent stuff” and wants to pull work back into meaningful, productive spaces.

“There has to be a better way—and this book shows it isn’t just possible, it’s practice.”

DAILY VISUAL

Larry Ellison Wealth Gain

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DAILY ACUMEN

Identity as Strategy

You can fake motivation, but not identity.

If you tell yourself “I want to be a writer,” you’ll struggle. If you tell yourself “I am a writer,” you’ll find time to write.

Markets behave similarly: when a company shifts its identity—say, from “car company” to “AI company”—the market re-rates its multiple before the fundamentals even change.

Identity is upstream of action, which is upstream of outcomes.

The person you become is the leading indicator of the life you will have. So audit your identity.

Is it calibrated to where you want to go, or anchored to where you’ve been?

If you want to be an investor, call yourself an investor before you have assets under management.

If you want to be fit, identify as someone who trains.

We think we act and then become, but often we must become and then act.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

  • How will we earn an income in the age of AI?

  • The middle aged are no longer the most miserable

  • The terrible design of Newark Airport

  • How to choose a walking style that aligns with your goals

  • Soft skills matter now more than ever

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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