Good Morning! EA is reportedly in late-stage talks to go private in a $50 billion buyout, which would be the largest LBO ever. Deal dollars are up through the first three quarters of 2025 compared with last year, but the number of deals are down.

Vista Equity underwriting debt for its portfolio companies, collecting additional fees while broader M&A stays muted. AI is still seen as being in the early innings of a potential 20-year “super cycle,” according to top investors, and Apple is testing a ChatGPT-like app.

Plus: Start-ups are embracing shoeless life, lofty valuations may be here to stay, and the underrated power of being an amateur.

Interested in gaining an edge on your payroll operations? Get Deel’s guide to optimize your finance team.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Hedge Fund's Free Agency Era

Being an agent, the middleman who represents a buyer or talent, can be wildly lucrative. Just look at Scott Boras, a former minor-league player turned MLB super-agent who negotiated Bryce Harper’s $330 million deal and Juan Soto’s record $765 million contract, taking a small cut along the way. Boras has built an estimated $450 million fortune doing it.

Now one former hedge fund PM, Ryan Walsh, who used to work at leading multi-strat hedge funds like Citadel and Millennium, is hanging up the cleats in his trading to become an agent for hedge fund talent. He says he’s “looking to [become] the Scott Boras of the hedge-fund world”. 

It turns out hedge funds are viewing portfolio managers are free agents too, and with unprecedented leverage, top candidates are hiring Walsh to squeeze out every perk: seven-figure sign-on bonuses, market-leading profit shares, accelerated payouts, and even grace periods for cold streaks. 

In just a year, Walsh has brokered 12 contracts worth $180 million, pocketing a single-digit commission on each. His value prop to candidates is that he’s armed with insider data and relationships, and can place top performers while flipping the old recruiter model on its head. 

Unlike headhunters paid by the funds, Walsh works only for the talent and is incentivized to ensure his clients don’t leave millions on the table. Even giants like Citadel and Millennium now find themselves at the mercy of agents, treating elite PMs like pro athletes hitting free agency.

Takeaway: Agents representing hedge fund stars mark a major shift in Wall Street’s power dynamic. Talent is king, and with agents like Walsh bringing insider leverage to the table, PMs no longer have to DIY their next deal. With hedge funds flush with cash for the next wave of hires, having a personal “Boras” could mean the difference between a good offer and generational wealth.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• EA weighs private deal for nearly $50 billion (WSJ)

• The deals market has become lopsided (Axios)

• Vista Equity runs debt deals for its own portfolio companies (BB)

• Top investor says “AI super-cycle” could last 20 years (CNBC)

• Foreign investors stick with U.S. stocks despite Trump tariff turmoil (YF)

• Wall Street says high stock valuations may be here to stay (YF)

• TikTok’s $14 billion valuation in Trump deal stuns investors (YF)

• How Zillow is on track for first profitable year since 2012 (WSJ)

• KKR chiefs say aging Japan offers AI data center opportunity (BB)

• Ares targets $8B raise to back AI-fueled data center boom (BB)

• Dan Ives and Tom Lee beat Wall Street establishment at its own game (BB)

• Hudson Yards developer may get another $2B from the city (NYT)

• Banks ordered to review account closures for debanking cases (WSJ)

• Fed's go-to gauge shows sticky inflation as Trump threatens more tariffs (Axios)

• Don't miss the rally, Wall Street analysts say (Axios)

• HSBC's quantum computing breakthrough could be the future of Wall Street (Axios)

• Trump launches “gold card” for the wealthy with Visa (CNBC)

• Apple builds a ChatGPT-like app to help test revamped Siri (BB)

• Family offices double down on AI investments (CNBC)

• Startups embrace the shoeless life (LI)

• Gold dips as strong U.S. data lifts dollar (CNBC)

PRESENTED BY DEEL

How Top Global Companies Structure Payroll Across Borders

Hiring across countries is easy. Paying compliantly? Not so much.

This guide from Deel breaks down the 3 most common global payroll models (decentralized, centralized, and BPO) with real-world examples, pros and cons, and what to consider when scaling.

Whether you're building an international team or optimizing an existing structure, this is a must-read for finance leaders, HR, and operations teams navigating cross-border compliance.

Find out which model fits your global team best and how to avoid the common pitfalls.

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. stocks closed higher, with gains broad-based after PCE inflation matched expectations

• Utilities and consumer discretionary led, while consumer staples lagged

• 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.18%, up from its 4.0% low earlier this month

• Asia traded lower, weighed down by pharma on new 100% U.S. tariffs on branded drugs

• Oil gained as Russia cut fuel exports after Ukrainian strikes

Economic Data Highlights

• Core PCE inflation steady at 2.9% annualized, in line with estimates

• Headline PCE inflation at 2.7% y/y, as goods rose 0.9% and services 3.6%

• Shelter inflation held at 3.9% annualized pace, keeping pressure on services inflation

• Personal income rose 0.4% m/m, above 0.3% forecasts

• Personal consumption up 0.6% m/m, also above expectations (0.45%)

Reported Earnings

• No significant earnings

Earnings Today

• Carnival (CCL) – Watch for booking trends, pricing strength, and fuel cost impacts

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Electronic Arts ($EA) +15% after the video game company reportedly nears a $50B take-private deal.

• (+) Boeing ($BA) +4% because of a massive Turkish Airlines order.

• (–) Restoration Hardware ($RH) -4% after Trump announced new tariffs on furniture imports.

Private Dealmaking

• DB Insurance agreed to buy Fortegra Group for $1.65 billion

• Zero Hash, a digital assets infrastructure provider, raised $104 million

• Inspiren, a senior living tech startup, raised $100 million

• Thyme Care, a cancer care company, raised $97 million

• WeTravel, a travel payments software provider, raised $92 million

• Factory, a software development platform, raised $50 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH

Real Estate Digest

Need help with real estate? Our official partner, Nest Seekers International, can help you buy, sell, rent, or invest, anywhere in the world. Get in touch here.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased ever so slightly this week after several weeks of decreases. Housing market activity continues to hold up as purchase and refinance applications were up 18% and 42% respectively compared to the same time last year.

Latest News

• Fed Cuts Rates and Signals More Are Ahead

• NYC On Track to Deliver 50k Housing Units By End of the Year

• What is the Better Appreciation Buy? Condo or Townhouse?

New Listings

• 335 West 38th Street New York, NY: 3 Bed / 3 Bath - $3.9M  

• 245 E 53rd St Apt: 2 New York, NY: 2 Bed / 2 Bath – $2.0M

• 39 Greenvale Ln Southampton, NY: 4 Bed / 5 Bath – $3.0M

• 441 34th St West Palm Beach, FL: 3 Bed / 2 Bath – $1.9M

• Athens Riviera Vari, Anatoliki Attiki Greece: 3 Bed / 4.5 Bath – $4.9M

• Charneca de Caparica, Almada Portugal: 6 Bed / 9 Bath – $5.6M

BOOK OF THE DAY

Turf Wars

Description:
A searing insider’s account of the power struggles between NFL players and owners. After fourteen years leading the NFL Players Association, Smith pulls back the curtain on contract wars, suspensions, racial tensions, and how the league shapes narratives to protect its brand. This is a story about the soul of football—and the fight to preserve it.

Book Length: 368 pages 

Ideal For:
Sports fans, social justice readers, labor movement watchers, and anyone curious about the collision of power, culture, and commerce in America’s most popular sport.

“Revelatory and profound, Turf Wars is a book about the soul of football: its degradation, and how to save it.”

DAILY VISUAL

Uber Revenue Mix

Want more? Visualize the markets with Carbon Finance

PRESENTED BY BABBEL

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With over 10 million users globally, Babbel has proven that efficient language learning beats both expensive classes and gamified apps that prioritize engagement over results.

Get lifetime access for $239, or 55% off other plans, during Babbelfest.

DAILY ACUMEN

Time Arbitrage

The market’s biggest inefficiency isn’t information, it’s time horizon.

Most traders think in quarters, most managers in years, most humans in days.

If you can stretch your horizon just a little longer, you’re competing in a less crowded game.

Time arbitrage is buying what’s ugly now but inevitable later, investing in relationships before they’re “useful,” writing ideas years before they’re mainstream.

Patience isn’t passive.

It’s playing a game others aren’t willing to stay in.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• The power of being an amateur

• America’s private capital advantage 

• Harvard’s founder class on the mindset needed in uncertain times

• How to manage a team with conflicting personalities

• How to look busy at the office

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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