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“Your job, throughout your entire life, is to disappoint as many people as it takes to avoid disappointing yourself.” — Glennon Doyle

Good Morning! SpaceX is looking to borrow $40 billion to buy chips from Nvidia. A third of some PE firms are demanding "super carry" in new funds. And First Brands' brothers say they'll blame each other at trial.

A former White House AI advisor is raising a $500 million VC fund. Partners Group is getting creative to fix funds hit by redemptions. Citi's co-head of IB also says PE firms are still aggressively poaching junior bankers, despite last year's promises from firms like Apollo to slow down.

Plus: Ray Dalio warns the AI bubble could soon burst, the wine industry is dealing with an oversupply problem, and how to spot toxic productivity.

There is now a card that allows you to borrow and spend as the wealthy do. Learn more about Stelrix here.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

GPU-Backed Securities

AI companies are increasingly turning to Wall Street to finance chip purchases, as the cost of building out data centers outgrows what balance sheets and public bond markets can absorb.

Broadcom is working to arrange more than $50 billion in financing for OpenAI's custom AI chips, which the two companies are developing together, and has held talks with Apollo and Blackstone about participating.

Oracle is separately in talks with Apollo and Goldman Sachs to finance a large chip purchase, and SpaceX has approached lenders about a $40 billion financing for Nvidia chips. Talks are early and deal sizes could change, but Broadcom and Oracle are both aiming to close before year-end.

Cloud providers like AWS and Oracle have historically funded hardware from operating cash flow, then turned to the bond market, issuing hundreds of billions of dollars of debt for their AI build-outs.

Now a new group of buyers has emerged. AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic, which used to rent most of their compute from cloud providers, want to own more of their infrastructure to lower costs, but they lack the balance sheets to buy it outright.

The structures look more like asset finance than corporate borrowing. Oracle's deal would likely have investors fund a separate entity that buys the chips and leases them to Oracle over time. That bridges the gap between paying for hardware and earning cloud revenue from it, without adding debt to Oracle's balance sheet. For context, Nvidia chips for a single 1-gigawatt data center can cost tens of billions of dollars.

Takeaway: GPU purchases have become capital markets transactions. For Apollo, Blackstone and Goldman, these deals offer a way to put large amounts of private credit to work in a single transaction. Lenders still have to judge how fast chip values depreciate as new generations arrive and how creditworthy the lessees are, and that will determine how this financing gets priced.

PRESENTED BY STELRIX

Family Offices Grew 31% in Five Years

There are now over 8,000 single family offices worldwide, up 31% in five years, and Deloitte projects 10,720 by 2030. “Single Family Offices” are private firms that exist to serve exactly one family.

Beyond picking investments, a family office’s real job is running the family balance sheet like a corporate treasury. Liquidity comes from credit, not sales. Real estate, tax bills, and new deals get funded by borrowing against the portfolio which allows it to continue compounding untouched. It’s why the ultra-wealthy rarely show up as sellers.

Stelrix brings that treasury function, in the form of an investment-backed credit card, to individual investors without the nine-figure minimum.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

  • SpaceX in talks to borrow $40 billion to buy Nvidia chips (BB)

  • When 20% of profits won't do, fund managers seek 'super carry' (BB)

  • First Brands' brothers say they'll blame each other at trial (BB)

  • Sriram Krishnan seeks $500 million for national security AI fund (Axios)

  • Partners Group gets creative to fix funds hit by redemption wave (BB)

  • Private equity isn't slowing its poaching of bankers, Citi executive says (BB)

  • Billionaire Ray Dalio warns AI bubble could soon burst (Forbes)

  • The wine industry is dealing with its oversupply problem (WSJ)

  • Paramount's monster debt deal offers few safeguards to investors (BB)

  • Modelo owner Constellation is getting creative to bring back beer drinkers as overall demand weakens (CNBC)

  • Fed officials see another hike coming, but no sign as to when, minutes show (CNBC)

  • Microsoft starts taking preorders for $2,599 Surface Laptop Ultra (CNBC)

  • IMF paper warns of hedge fund risks (Axios)

  • Hertz lenders team up with advisers as possible debt fight looms (BB)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

  • Stocks closed modestly lower after record highs Tuesday; the 10-year Treasury yield finished little changed near 5.29% following a well-received auction.

  • The DXY U.S. Dollar Index hit its highest level since spring 2025 on elevated U.S. yields and European political uncertainty.

  • Asian and European markets closed lower as the 10-year French yield rose 0.11 percentage points.

Economic Data

  • Fed minutes showed broad support for the September hike, but futures now price roughly an 80% probability of a hold this month.

  • U.S. investment-grade bonds are down nearly 3% year to date.

  • NIPA corporate profits rose 26.6% year over year in Q2, the strongest non-recovery gain since 2012.

Earnings Season Preview

  • Major U.S. financial firms kick off third-quarter earnings next week.

  • S&P 500 earnings per share rose 27.2% in Q1 and 49.6% in Q2, with Q3 growth expected above 27%.

  • Growth has been led by technology, communication services, consumer discretionary, and energy.

Movers & Shakers

  • (+) Spotify ($SPOT) +5% after Bank of America analyst reaffirmed a Buy rating on the music streaming giant, calling it "Muse-proof".

  • (+) Micron ($MU) +4% because D.A. Davidson raised its price target on the memory chipmaker to a Street-high $3,000 from $2,100.

  • (–) Webull ($BULL) -19% after a bipartisan report said the online brokerage is tied "in structural ways" to China and poses a national security risk.

Prediction Markets

  • The Nobel Peace Prize award winner will be announced tomorrow at 5am EDT. The Nobel for economics will be announced on Monday.

  • Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

  • Ledgebrook, a specialty insurance startup, raised $200 million

  • General Medicine, a telehealth provider and medical marketplace, raised $120 million

  • Nous Research, a developer of AI assistants for business users, raised $90 million

  • KymaThera, a precision medicine biotech focused on cancers and vascular malformations, raised $80 million

  • Constellation Brands acquired SpikedAde, a ready-to-drink vodka beverage brand, for $75 million

  • Stuut, an AI coworker that runs order-to-cash for enterprises, raised $52.2 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

101 Essays That Will Change The Way You Think

Description:
Brianna Wiest brings together 101 essays exploring self-awareness, emotional intelligence, personal growth, relationships, and the mental patterns that shape how we experience our lives. Rather than offering conventional self-help formulas, Wiest challenges readers to reconsider deeply held assumptions about success, happiness, purpose, failure, and identity. She explores ideas such as choosing purpose over passion, embracing negative experiences, recognizing cognitive biases, changing destructive patterns, and becoming more intentional about how we spend our time and attention. The essays are short, accessible, and highly reflective, making the book particularly easy to return to at different stages of life. Its enduring appeal comes from a simple premise: changing the way you interpret your circumstances can fundamentally change the way you experience them.

Book Length: 448 pages
Release Date: November 14, 2016

Ideal For:
Anyone interested in personal growth, psychology, self-awareness, emotional intelligence, relationships, productivity, and developing a more intentional approach to life.

“Changing your life often begins with changing the assumptions you use to understand it.”

DAILY VISUAL

Wall Street on Track for Record Profits

Source: Axios

PRESENTED BY F2

Every Deal Your Firm has Done Should Make the Next One Smarter

A decade of underwriting leaves behind thousands of memos, models, and credit files, and most firms never open them again. F2 structures that history into Institutional Knowledge your team can query on every live deal:

  • Institutional Knowledge: every deal you've evaluated, structured and queryable

  • Precedents on demand: pricing, terms, and covenants pulled from your own book

  • Compounding intelligence: each closed deal sharpens the next

"Epic product. Akin to hiring out an entire additional underwriting team," says a VP at a $20B private credit fund.

Compounding intelligence for global credit.

DAILY ACUMEN

Crowd Wisdom

In 1906, at a livestock fair in Plymouth, England, 787 people guessed the weight of an ox. The statistician Francis Galton collected the entries expecting to prove the crowd was foolish. The average guess landed within a pound of the true weight of 1,198.

The crowd worked because the guesses were made independently. Each person's errors were different, so they canceled out.

Put people in a room, let the loudest voice go first, and the errors line up instead. You get one confident guess repeated, not hundreds of independent ones.

Before your next forecasting meeting, have everyone write their number privately, then average them. The average will often beat most of the individuals who contributed to it.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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