Good Morning! Meta has poached three OpenAI researchers, reportedly dangling $100M+ paychecks, as Zuck gears up for a $65B AI spree this year.

The PE-promised M&A boom hasn’t arrived yet but dealmakers are betting on a big second half. Carlyle’s launching a retail PE fund, and BlackRock plans to add PE and credit to 401(k)s.

One of Elon’s top execs has exited Tesla, Trump may name a Fed chief early to undermine Powell, and NYC brokers say wealthy buyers are already looking to flee after Zohran Mamdani’s primary win.

Plus: How the stock market hit a new record, and the habits of high-level gaslighters.

Mosaic’s AI analyst can turn your MD’s modeling comments. See it in action today.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

FOMO Stock Market is Back

The S&P 500 is closing in on an all-time high, with futures for this morning at records. But underneath the surface, cracks are forming.

Tariffs are set to snap back in two weeks. Consumer sentiment is sliding, and the economy is flashing warning signs. And yet, investors are pouring into the riskiest corners of the market like none of it matters.

The Invesco High Beta ETF, which tracks volatile names, is crushing its low-volatility cousin, on track for its best quarter since the 2020 stimulus sugar high. And Goldman’s basket of companies with weak balance sheets is outperforming the S&P 500 for the first time since January.

“This is the very beginning of a period of FOMO that happens in the late stages of every structural bull market — every single one,” said Julian Emanuel, chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI.

“What’s surprising is the speed with which speculation has returned, especially given the record bearishness barely two months ago and the significant economic and policy uncertainty still hanging over the market.”

Retail traders are steering the rally. While institutional money flinched during the April selloff, retail bought the dip, chasing tech, momentum, and anything that smells like AI. 

But it’s a narrow, shaky rally. Small-caps are lagging badly, mostly because they’re not tech-heavy. Broader earnings growth is soft. 

And while buying the dip has worked since 2020, this time there’s real risk that investors are ignoring the warning signs. When everyone’s all-in on one story, and it’s priced for perfection, even a small crack can trigger a bigger fall.

Takeaway: The market’s dancing on a tightrope, and everyone’s acting like there’s a safety net. Underneath the surge in high-beta stocks and AI optimism, the macro backdrop is shaky, consumer strength is fading, and earnings breadth is paper-thin. Right now, the only thing more inflated than valuations is retail investor confidence.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Meta poaches three OpenAI researchers (WSJ)

• Pacaso expands its luxury vacation homes to Italy (TTW)

• How the US economy is holding up amid Trump’s tariffs (CNN)

• Private equity promised M&A boom but world is still waiting (Fortune)

• Wall Street bulls up for second half of 2025 (Axios)

• The M&A market keeps changing in unexpected ways (Axios)

• Treasury deal kills ‘revenge tax’ that spooked Wall Street (YF)

• Carlyle makes new retail fund push to buy and sell PE stakes (BB)

• BlackRock puts private equity and credit into 401(k) funds (BB)

• Luxury real estate brokers say wealthy already fleeing NYC (NYP)

• JPMorgan record may help confirm bull market (Axios) 

• Family offices double down on private credit and infrastructure (CNBC)

• Tesla head of manufacturing Omead Afshar fired by Elon Musk (CNBC)

• Blackstone buys another $2B in discounted commercial real estate loans (WSJ)

• Trump considers naming Fed Chair early in bid to undermine Powell (WSJ)

• How the stock market made it back to new record (CNBC)

• UBS to merge M&A sponsor advisory in investment banking revamp (BB)

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CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. stocks rallied Thursday, with the S&P 500 closing just below its all-time high from February 19.

• Gains were broad-based, led by growth-oriented sectors like communication services and cyclical groups like energy and industrials.

• European markets were mixed following weaker-than-expected German consumer confidence, while Asia was also mixed overnight.

• Q1 real GDP was revised lower, showing a 0.5% annualized contraction, and initial jobless claims came in below expectations.

• Bond yields dipped, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.26% and the 2-year at 3.72%.

Economic Data Highlights

• Q1 GDP was revised down to –0.5% from the previous –0.2%, driven by softer consumer spending and exports.

• Initial jobless claims fell to 236,000, the lowest in six weeks, while continuing claims rose to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021.

• The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects 3.4% real GDP growth in Q2, as trade activity rebounds.

• May PCE inflation data, due Friday, is expected to show 0.1% MoM increases in both headline and core PCE, with YoY figures at 2.3% and 2.6%, respectively.

Reported Earnings

• Nike (NKE) – Beat expectations, driven by strength in international sales and improved gross margin.

• Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) – Missed expectations due to lower U.S. retail pharmacy margins and weaker front-store traffic.

Earnings Today

• No significant earnings scheduled.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Core Scientific ($CORZ) +33% after the company is rumored to merge with CoreWeave.

• (+) Enphase Energy ($ENPH) +13% because the spending bill may maintain solar credits.

• (–) Equinix ($EQIX) -10% after the data center REIT was downgraded by Raymond James.

Private Dealmaking

• Abridge, a medical AI startup, raised $300 million

• Raphe mPhibr, a drone maker, raised $100 million

• Neuron23, a precision medicines developer, raised $96.5 million

• Ledgebrook, an insurtech, raised $65 million

• Clearspeed, a voice-based risk assessment provider, raised $60 million

• Zama, a cryptography startup, raised $57 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

How To Talk To Anyone About Anything

Description: A concise, action-packed guide that breaks down the essentials of engaging conversation—structuring stories, boosting charisma, and creating meaningful connections in just minutes. Based on principles for confident self-expression, it’s designed to turn any interaction into an opportunity to connect.

Rating: Amazon/Audible reader reviews: 4.0 / 5

Book Length: 160 pages
Audio Book: ~3 hours and 15 minutes

Ideal For: Busy professionals, introverts, reteaming employees, and anyone seeking quick confidence boosts for social and networking scenarios.

“Every section is broken down with easy‑to‑follow stories and tips you can put into action right now… instant, positive changes from the moment you listen.”

DAILY VISUAL

Never Time The Market

Want more? Visualize the markets with Carbon Finance

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Whether you’re tracking opportunities, managing risk, or drafting IC memos, Hebbia helps finance, real estate, and legal teams get more done in less time, without sacrificing quality.

DAILY ACUMEN

Learning

We live in an age of nonstop learning—and near-instant forgetting.

Within a week, you’ll forget up to 90% of what you just read, heard, or watched… unless you fight the forgetting curve.

The key isn’t more information—it’s how you engage with it.

Write down what you’ve learned in your own words.

Reflect on how it connects to what you already know.

Apply it—even in small ways—immediately.

These steps signal to your brain: “this matters.”

Because real learning isn’t about what you absorb in the moment—it’s about what you can recall and use when it counts.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Upgrade your morning investing insights

• Wharton’s deep dive into wellness at work

• Speed is a leadership decision

• 7 habits to feel more motivated and connected

• Habits of high-level gaslighters

• The different levels of listening

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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