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“The most valuable asset I have today is enough net worth to watch the world become chaotic without being forced to make chaotic decisions myself.” — Morgan Housel

Good morning! South Korean AI cloud firm Elice plunged 30% in its market debut, deepening doubts about the AI trade. Anthropic could spend $750 billion on additional computing power in the coming years. And Salesforce agreed to buy Braze for about $5.66 billion, adding a customer-engagement platform to its portfolio.

The ultrawealthy are reshaping Nashville with Lamborghinis and $35 million estates. Citrini Research says life sciences companies could benefit from a surge in AI-fueled drug discovery. And Blackstone raised $8.7 billion for a fund focused on cleaner energy.

Plus: Steve Cohen backs Hertz’s robotaxi ambitions, 3 habits for maintaining close friendships, and why high performers leave before you know they’re gone.

Buying shares of a private company is one decision. What you do with them later is another. Explore Augment's Private Liquidity Network.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Dividend Recapmaxxing

PE investors want their cash back, but sluggish IPO and deal markets have made selling companies difficult. So buyout firms are having their portfolio companies borrow money to fund investor payouts, commonly known as a dividend recapitalization.

Distributions have dropped from more than 30% of starting NAV in 2022 to ~12% today, per PitchBook data, while Bain estimates ~$3.8 trillion of unsold buyout assets, with average holding periods stretching to seven years.

And with investors wanting returns, lenders are happy to help. Credit investors have money to deploy because fewer acquisitions are generating new loans, and Moody’s estimates PE-owned companies across Europe, the Middle East and Africa (the EMEA region) could borrow another ~$46 billion before reaching leverage levels that typically trigger a downgrade. 

Moody’s says most recent dividend recaps involved companies that beat their original business plans, concentrated in services, consumer products and manufacturing, with enough cash flow to absorb the added interest. 

But a recap doesn’t eliminate the need to find a buyer. A recap can also leave the business with less room to weather a downturn and could complicate an IPO, since prospective investors generally want to see a record of falling leverage. And if exits remain scarce, Moody’s worries sponsors could exhaust their strongest recap candidates and ask weaker credits to fund the payouts.

Takeaway: Dividend recaps can bridge a slow exit market, returning cash to LPs without forcing a sale at a discount, as long as the borrowing rests on earnings a company has already delivered. The risk comes when the pressure to distribute starts to outweigh the balance sheet’s ability to carry the debt.

PRESENTED BY AUGMENT

Buying Shares of a Private Company was the First Part

Finding a private-market opportunity is one process. Deciding what to do with the position later, whether to add to it or sell it, has usually meant starting over: a new search, a new counterparty, a new stack of paperwork.

Augment built the Private Liquidity Network to change that. It is a self-serve platform that facilitates eligible secondary transactions for units of pre-IPO funds. Investors buy units in a Collective fund, which holds the underlying private-company shares. Eligible holders may be able to place a sell order on a position directly from their portfolio, and eligible buyers on the network can see it. Individuals, institutions, and brokerage and wealth partners trade on the same rails.

Accredited investors can use Augment to explore more than 700 private companies, with private-market pricing data, on desktop or mobile. Minimums start at $10K. No additional Augment-level management fees or carried interest. Underlying investment vehicles may impose fees and carried interest. Brokerage services are provided through Augment Capital, LLC, a broker-dealer registered with the SEC and member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are provided through Augment Advisors, LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Explore the Private Liquidity Network on Augment.*

HEADLINES

Top Reads

  • AI rally fades away from Wall Street as a tiny IPO makes big waves (CNBC)

  • Anthropic may spend $750 billion on computing costs, report says (BB)

  • Salesforce to buy customer-engagement platform for nearly $5.7 billion (WSJ)

  • The ultrawealthy are reshaping Nashville with Lamborghinis and $35 million estates (BB)

  • Citrini bets on life sciences after Claude AI drug study (BB)

  • Blackstone hauls in $8.7 billion for energy transition fund (BB)

  • Steve Cohen backs Hertz's robotaxi ambitions with $80M investment (Axios)

  • Ares warns of Australian private credit stress from rising rates (BB)

  • The AI buildout is nearing its existential phase (BB Opinion)

  • Top venture capitalist Jenny Lee says Asian startups are speeding toward IPOs (CNBC)

  • Real estate giant CBRE gets deeper into data centers with $1 billion deal (WSJ)

  • Private credit firm Tikehau is said to seek strategic investor (BB)

  • Investors are backing away from risk, Goldman Sachs says (WSJ)

  • Sequoia alumnus raises more than $1 billion for tech hedge fund (BB)

  • Private equity's $12 billion self-dealing problem (BB)

  • Anthropic in talks with neocloud Nscale over second multibillion-dollar deal (CNBC)

  • Barclays freed up cash for hedge fund bets as it hit loan limits (BB)

  • Netflix, America's dominant streaming service, has hit a wall (WSJ)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

  • Stocks closed higher on broad participation, led by health care and real estate; the 10-year Treasury yield fell near 5.11% as expectations for an October Fed hike eased.

  • WTI crude pulled back on diplomatic efforts to ease Middle East supply disruptions.

  • Asian equities finished mixed, European stocks were broadly lower, and the U.S. dollar weakened modestly.

Labor Market

  • ADP showed private employers added an average of 18,500 jobs per week for the four weeks ended October 3, down from 26,000 after six straight increases.

  • Unemployment holds at 4.2%, with roughly 7.1 million job openings about equal to the number of unemployed.

  • The Fed is likely to hold rates this month but remains on track for further tightening.

Housing

  • Housing starts fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.22 million in September, below the 1.30 million estimate.

  • Building permits held steady near 1.4 million, modestly above the 1.39 million forecast.

  • The average 30-year mortgage rate near 7.4% continues to constrain demand, while data-center construction offsets some residential weakness.

Movers & Shakers

  • (+) Lionsgate Studios ($LION) +14% after Apollo-backed Legendary Entertainment is pursuing a takeover.

  • (+) Equifax ($EFX) +11% because the credit reporting company beat Q3 adjusted EPS on 15% growth in U.S. mortgage revenue.

  • (–) GE Aerospace ($GE) -4% after the jet engine maker beat Q3 estimates and raised full-year guidance.

Prediction Markets

  • Big week for Elon with Tesla’s earnings call (after markets close) the day following SpaceX. Oh, and Tesla Roadsters can fly now.

  • Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Trillion Dollar Coach

Description: Trillion Dollar Coach explores the leadership philosophy of Bill Campbell, the legendary executive coach who helped shape some of Silicon Valley's most successful companies, including Google, Apple, and Intuit. Drawing on interviews with more than 80 people who knew and worked with Campbell, the authors reveal how he built trusting relationships, developed exceptional leaders, and helped teams navigate conflict, make better decisions, and achieve extraordinary results. Campbell believed that successful leadership begins with people, emphasizing empathy, genuine relationships, constructive feedback, and a strong sense of teamwork. He encouraged executives to create environments where employees felt supported, challenged, and empowered to perform at their best. The book translates his approach into practical principles for hiring talent, running effective meetings, managing disagreements, building team culture, and developing future leaders. Its central message is that business success depends not only on strategy and execution but also on the quality of relationships between the people responsible for delivering results.

Book Length: 240 pages
Release Date: April 16, 2019

Ideal For: Executives, managers, entrepreneurs, aspiring CFOs, and professionals looking to strengthen their leadership and people-management skills. Particularly valuable for leaders building high-performing teams, navigating organizational change, developing talent, and learning how to balance accountability with empathy.

Great leadership is not just about making the right decisions. It is about building the trust, relationships, and teams that make extraordinary results possible.

DAILY VISUAL

Highest Earners are More Likely to Raise 3+ Kids

Source: Axios

PRESENTED BY STUUT

Businesses Worldwide Have $16T Locked Up in Receivables

Every unpaid invoice is a free loan to your customer. Across the economy that adds up to $16 trillion sitting in receivables. Somebody on your finance team is probably chasing part of that by email right now.

Stuut just raised a $52.5M Series B led by Insight Partners, with a16z, Microsoft's M12 and Activant, to automate the chase. It's an AI coworker that handles credit, collections, cash application and payments over email, text and voice, so your team doesn’t need to play detective (or collections agency) on overdue accounts.

Built for PE firm and operating partners, customers report DSO (or “Days Sales Outstanding”) down 47%. This means you get paid faster by spending less time tracking down your money.

DAILY ACUMEN

Default Wins

In a 2003 paper in Science, Eric Johnson and Daniel Goldstein compared two neighboring countries with similar cultures. In Austria, people are organ donors unless they opt out, and about 99 percent are. In Germany, people must opt in, and about 12 percent were.

Almost nobody changes the pre-selected option, because changing it takes effort and attention. One caveat is that registration is not transplants. Hospital systems and family consent still decide whether a donation happens.

Whoever sets the default sets the outcome for most people. Check the defaults you control, like meeting length, auto-renewal, and enrollment forms, because most people will keep whatever you set.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

  • The world’s leading AI-driven deal modeling platform is hiring. See role (IB/PE/PC only)

  • Can a daily to-do list help you get your life around?

  • The psychology of narcissism vs healthy self-esteem

  • Why high-performers leave before you know they’re gone

  • 3 habits for maintaining close friendships

  • How lowering your expectations can improve your productivity

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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📈 Grow With Us: Work directly with the Overheard on Wall Street team to scale your finance brand. Schedule your free consult.

🧢 Wall Street Shop: Explore our collection of finance-themed apparel and merchandise. Visit the shop.

"Pre-IPO" is used generally to describe a privately held company that may be viewed as a potential candidate for a future public offering. The term does not mean that the company has filed for, scheduled, or committed to an IPO. An IPO or other liquidity event may never occur. Private securities are speculative and illiquid, and investors may lose their entire investment. A submitted order is not an assurance of a transaction. Orders may expire unfilled, and whether a position can be sold depends on issuer restrictions, transfer limits, required approvals, documentation, and buyer availability. Secondary liquidity is not guaranteed, and investors should be prepared to hold investments indefinitely.

*Augment may invest in certain underlying vehicles that include passed-through management fees or carried interest; only a one-time transaction fee applies at investment. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only. None of the information provided represents an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. The information provided does not constitute investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. You should consult with qualified professionals before making any investment decisions. Investing in private securities involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. Private securities are typically illiquid, have limited pricing transparency, and often require longer holding periods. These investments are available exclusively to qualified accredited investors and offer no guarantee of returns. An IPO or other liquidity event is not guaranteed. Past performance of private securities does not indicate or predict future results. Share price data are estimates only, based on proprietary data from Caplight and Augment Markets, Inc. and its affiliates. Brokerage services offered through Augment Capital, LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Augment Advisors, LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser.