Good Morning! American Eagle stock soared 24% after Trump called Sydney Sweeney’s ad the “‘HOTTEST’ ad out there,” while Hims & Hers shares fell 14% after-hours after missing expectations.

Palantir posted blowout earnings, topping $1 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time and raising its full-year forecast. Joby is acquiring Blade’s air taxi business for up to $125 million, and Elon Musk scored a ~$30 billion stock award from Tesla to stay focused.

Plus: Carlyle secured $9 billion for a new U.S. real estate fund, JPMorgan staff are upset about having to pay for the gym at the firm’s new HQ, and Stephen Curry has no idea what his net worth is.

Still copy-pasting PortCo data from decks? PortfolioIQ auto-extracts and standardizes your data, so you get straight to insights. See it in action today.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Deal Flow Summer

August is usually one of the quietest months on Wall Street. Senior bankers flee to Europe, and inboxes fill with out-of-office replies. But this year, vacation plans are on hold, and Wall Street is on pace for its most lucrative August in years.

Last week marked the busiest week for U.S. M&A since 2021, according to LSEG. Bankers and lawyers are back in the trenches, negotiating term sheets and closing deals that had long been on ice.

Deals that were once “just a glimmer” are now hitting the tape, including some of the biggest of the year:

• Union Pacific inked the year’s largest transaction, a $71.5 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern, creating the first coast-to-coast U.S. freight rail operator.

• Palo Alto Networks agreed to acquire CyberArk for $25 billion.

• Baker Hughes signed a $13 billion merger with Chart Industries.

• Even the IPO window reopened with Figma’s public debut, where shares more than tripled on day one.

Chevron also closed its long-awaited $53 billion acquisition of Hess, netting advisers a combined $175 million in fees. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s openness to approving mergers with negotiated remedies has injected fresh confidence into dealmaking.

The return of mega-deals is shifting the tone in boardrooms. JPMorgan’s global head of M&A, Anu Aiyengar, has reportedly urged her teams to seize the momentum before year-end. And with names like Kraft Heinz, Kenvue, and LVMH rumored to be exploring strategic moves, the pipeline could stay active through Q4.

Some bankers are already celebrating. One reportedly chartered a helicopter to the Hamptons post-deal and popped $950 Casamigos bottles at Surf Lodge. Others are staying focused. Asked how he planned to mark the close of the railroad megadeal, one senior banker replied, “You get to the office, and you look for the next one.”

Takeaway: The 2025 deal drought may be officially over. With mega-mergers back on the table and IPOs heating up, the second half of 2025 could be a windfall for Wall Street’s rainmakers. If you're a banker, cancel that trip to Mykonos… bonus season may finally be worth staying for.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• American Eagle stock soars after Trump hails Sydney Sweeney ad (Axios)

• Hims & Hers stock falls 10% on revenue miss (CNBC)

• Palantir tops $1B in revenue for the first time, boosts guidance (CNBC)

• Joby will buy Blade's air taxi business for up to $125 million (Axios)

• Carlyle raises $9 billion for U.S. real estate bets (YF)

• JPMorgan employees gripe about paying for fitness center at new HQ (NYP)

• NBA star Stephen Curry doesn’t know his net worth (CNBC)

• Blackstone staff return to Park Ave a week after tragedy (BB)

• Puerto Rico private equity boom faces fresh regulatory scrutiny (BB)

• Ex-JPMorgan bankers launch wealth firm managing $400M (BB)

• Palantir’s chief tech officer becomes company’s 5th billionaire (BB)

• New study reveals when most Americans fall asleep (NYP)

• Tesla gives Elon Musk nearly $30 billion in stock (Axios)

• Musk not the only billion-dollar CEO (LI)

• The AI boom’s hidden risks to the economy (WSJ)

• Silicon Valley’s new strategy is move slow and build things (WSJ)

• A wild year for markets hits trend following hedge funds (WSJ)

• Amphenol in $10.5B deal for CommScope’s connectivity, cable unit (CNBC)

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CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Stocks rebounded sharply, recovering most of Friday’s losses as soft jobs data boosted rate-cut optimism

• The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.20%, its lowest in three months

• Small-cap and mega-cap tech stocks led gains, while energy lagged on a 1.8% drop in oil prices

• OPEC+ announced a significant output increase, reversing 2023 voluntary production cuts

• Berkshire Hathaway shares fell over 3% after reporting an earnings decline and a $3.8 billion impairment related to Kraft Heinz

Economic Data Highlights

• Focus remains on labor market softness following Friday’s jobs miss and large downward revisions to prior months

• Despite the slowdown, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% and wage growth remains firm

• Bond markets are now pricing in a 90% chance of a September Fed rate cut, with another expected by year-end

• Markets will likely digest recent developments this week, with key data ahead on services, productivity, and jobless claims

Reported Earnings

• ON Semiconductor met expectations with stabilizing end-market demand despite year-over-year declines

• Palantir posted strong results with revenue growth driven by U.S. commercial contracts and raised full-year guidance

• HIMS & Hers beat earnings estimates with strong subscriber growth, though revenue came in slightly below expectations

Earnings Today

• Super Micro (SMCI) – Watch for updates on AI server demand and hyperscale infrastructure trends

• AMD (AMD) – Focus on margins and commentary around next-gen chip cycles and supply chain dynamics

• Snap (SNAP) – Key metrics include user growth, ad monetization, and progress in AI-driven engagement tools

Movers & Shakers

• (+) American Eagle ($AEO) +24% after Trump called Sydney Sweeney’s ad the “‘HOTTEST’ ad out there.”

• (+) Joby Aviation ($JOBY) +19% because of the $125M deal with Blade.

• (–) Figma ($FIG) -27% after investors make sense of the IPO valuation.

Private Dealmaking

• HNI bought Steelcase for $2.2 billion

• Oxide Computer Company, a software provider, raised $100 million

• Saphyre, a finance ops/trading workflow platform, raised $70 million

• Salient, a loan servicing platform for consumer finance, raised $60 million

• Ultromics, a cardiology diagnostics platform, raised $55 million

• 4AG Robotics, a maker of mushroom-harvesting robots, raised $40 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

How To Do The Work

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Rating:
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Book Length: 320 pages
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Ideal For: Anyone ready to break free from autopilot patterns, heal from emotional wounds, and take radical responsibility for their growth and happiness.

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Fractals

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ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Can speaking up in meetings help your career?

• Iron laws of the stock market

• 5 ways leaders can communicate power

• The secret of self-control isn’t willpower

• The psychology of becoming who you want to be

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Memes of the Day

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