šŸ‹ Dangerous Age of Private Credit

Plus: Trump calls Powell a ā€œknuckleheadā€ and a ā€œstupid guy,ā€ JPM launched a bespoke financing group, Bitcoin crossed $120k, and Grayscale filed for an IPO.

short squeez

Together With

"I go on TV and the stock market goes wild — I can move it just by talking." — Donald Trump

Good morning! Trump called Fed Chair Powell a ā€œknuckleheadā€ and a ā€œstupid guy,ā€ saying interest rates should be under 1%, while Powell ordered a review of the Fed’s $2.5 billion office renovation after pressure from Trump.

Bitcoin topped $123,000 as crypto week begins in Washington. JPMorgan launched a bespoke financings group. Cognition bought Windsurf just days after Google poached its CEO in a $2.4 billion deal, and U.S. banks might be headed for consolidation.

Plus: Crypto asset manager Grayscale filed for an IPO, Lavazza CEO blames hedge funds for coffee price surge, and the market is starting to look a little too bubbly.

In 2025, the smartphone has evolved into an income-generating asset, thanks to Mode Mobile. This is your opportunity to invest in the company behind the tech.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Dangerous Age of Private Credit

Jamie Dimon told a ballroom full of clients that private credit reminds him of the subprime mortgage crisis. Then he wrote a $50 billion check to get in on it.

At a JPM event in Miami, Dimon warned that direct lending to overlevered companies is full of ā€œbad actorsā€ and ā€œshitty deals.ā€ That same day, JPMorgan announced it’s building out one of the biggest private credit platforms on Wall Street.

This isn’t hypocrisy. It’s opportunism. Private credit has grown into a $2 trillion industry, and banks like JPM feel they’ve been cut out of LBO financing. PE firms love it because it’s faster, looser, and doesn’t require the regulations or getting a rating through Moody’s.

For JPM, it’s not just about rivaling Ares and Blackstone, it’s about stopping those same firms from outbidding them, sometimes using funds indirectly sourced from banks themselves through back-leverage structures.

JPMorgan is making a full-court press into private credit while still managing banking relationships with the very PE firms it’s trying to beat for deals. Dimon is betting that if the market crashes, JPM will be the one buying distressed loans at a discount. Until then, the bank is pitching clients a buffet of options. 

Takeaway: Jamie Dimon isn’t pulling punches this year. First, he called out private equity recruiting and got it canned. Now he’s going after private credit, competing against some of the world’s biggest clients. And JPM may be best positioned to win with a better suite options straight off its balance sheet. Private credit might be a ticking bomb, but JPMorgan plans to cash in when the golden age ends.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

  • Trump calls Powell a 'knucklehead,' says rates should be below 1% (Fox)

  • Cognition to buy AI startup Windsurf days after Google poached CEO in $2.4 billion licensing deal (CNBC)

  • JPMorgan forms new banking team focused on bespoke financings (YF)

  • Bitcoin soars past $120,000 as 'crypto week' kicks off in Congress (YF)

  • Bitcoin rally driven more by institutional demand than speculation (YF)

  • Banks start to bring Boots’ $4.25B buyout debt to market (BB)

  • Powell asks inspector general to review $2.5B renovation (CNBC)

  • Wall Street's frothy summer looks bubbly, despite Trump's trade war (Axios

  • Private equity bets on biopharma (WSJ)

  • Why the S&P 500 could reach 10,000 (YF)

  • US bank M&A hopes revive under Trump regulators (YF)

  • Hedge funds responsible for 80% of coffee price surge (HW)

  • Why Big Tech's dominance could be a double-edged sword for the market (Axios)

  • Surviving bankruptcy — there is life after financial ruin (FT)

  • Calpers pushes further into private equity after best results in four years (FT)

  • Mamdani win sends jitters through NYC luxury real estate market (CNN)

  • Trump Jr. invests in social media firm building crypto hoard (BB)

  • Vanguard goes big on crypto, thanks to the index-fund boom it unleashed (BB)

  • Crypto asset manager Grayscale files confidentially for US IPO (BB)

PRESENTED BY MODE MOBILE

This tech company grew 32,481%...

No, it's not Nvidia… It's Mode Mobile, 2023’s fastest-growing software company according to Deloitte.

Their disruptive tech, the EarnPhone and EarnOS, have helped users earn and save an eye-popping $325M+, driving $75M+ in revenue and a massive 45M+ consumer base. And having secured partnerships with Walmart and Best Buy, Mode’s not stopping there…

Like Uber turned vehicles into income-generating assets, Mode is turning smartphones into an easy passive income source. The difference is that you have a chance to invest early in Mode’s pre-IPO offering at just $0.30/share.

They’ve just been granted the stock ticker $MODE by the Nasdaq and the time to invest at their current share price is running out.

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

  • U.S. stocks closed higher Monday despite President Trump announcing 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico over the weekend

  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq both gained, led by communication and financial stocks

  • Energy and materials sectors lagged

  • 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.43%, still below its May peak

  • Asia closed mixed as China’s trade surplus rose to $115B in June

  • Europe fell on U.S. tariff news

  • WTI oil declined on potential U.S. sanctions against Russian crude buyers

Economic Data Highlights

  • June CPI inflation due today

  • Headline CPI expected to rise to 2.6% YoY, from 2.4%

  • Core CPI forecast at 3.0%, up from 2.8%

  • Tariff-driven inflation expected to be short-term and not persistent

  • 10-year breakeven inflation expectations remain anchored at ~2.37%

Reported Earnings

  • Fastenal (FAST) – Beat expectations, citing strong demand across industrial supplies and better cost controls

Earnings Today

  • JPMorgan Chase (JPM) – Reporting before open: Focus on loan growth, trading revenue, and credit quality

  • BlackRock (BLK) – Reporting before open: Investors watching flows into ETFs and active funds amid volatile markets

  • Citigroup (C) – Reporting before open: Analysts eyeing investment banking results and consumer credit trends

Movers & Shakers

  • (+) Nebius Group ($NBIS) +17% after Goldman initiated coverage with buy.

  • (+) Autodesk ($ADSK) +5% because it ended a plan to potentially buy out PTC.

  • (–) Waters ($WAT) -14% after a $17.5B deal to merge with BD Biosciences.

Private Dealmaking

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BOOK OF THE DAY

How To Do Boring, Tedious, Difficult, Necessary Things

Description:
A no-nonsense self-discipline guide aimed at building mental toughness through everyday drudgery. Across 30 practical essays, Hollins explores how disciplined people think—and how you can, too. You’ll learn techniques like the 90-second rule for emotional control, habitual systems for tackling discomfort, and daily ā€œboringā€ workouts for your resilience muscle.

Rating: Amazon: 4.5 / 5  

Book Length: 237 pages
Audible Length: ~4 hrs 8 mins, narrated by Russell Newton

Ideal For:
Anyone stuck avoiding essential but repellent tasks—whether adulting chores, creative slog, workouts, or tough conversations. This is for readers wanting real-world discipline tactics that don’t require willpower—they just work.

ā€œDoing things you hate is a rare skill—and the only one that guarantees your life doesn’t turn into a dumpster fire.ā€

DAILY VISUAL

Japan: Negative Population Growth = More Empty Homes

Source: Apollo

 

PRESENTED BY MOSAIC

CIM Screenshot to LBO

Imagine a world where you can take a screenshot of a CIM, upload it, and—ta-da—a full LBO model is ready in seconds. Well, that future is here.

Mosaic’s LBO platform lets you upload a CIM screenshot, input your assumptions, and generate a bid-ready model in just minutes. See it in action here.

You can also add a dividend recap, earnout, or M&A tuck-in in seconds. And with a built-in chatbot analyst, even MD comments get updated instantly.

Top firms like Evercore and CVC already use Mosaic to build LBO models in mere minutes. It's time that you do too.

DAILY ACUMEN

Weightless

A strange truth about life: the heaviest things are often invisible.

Regret. Expectation. Guilt. Envy. These are the bricks we quietly tuck into our backpacks. We carry them to meetings, to dinners, into bed—and wonder why we feel tired even after rest.

But here’s the catch: you packed the bag. Which means you can also unpack it.

Start by dropping the weight of past mistakes. They're not you, they’re receipts—proof of purchase for the lessons you now own.

Then offload borrowed expectations: from parents, peers, society. They weren’t made for your shoulders.

Finally, let go of guilt for choosing rest, saying no, or simply being yourself. Guilt is a misplaced loyalty to someone else’s story.

The paradox? When you drop the things you thought you had to carry, you gain the strength to lift what truly matters: a meaningful career, a calm mind, people you love.

Weightless doesn’t mean empty. It means free.

And freedom—internal, quiet, hard-won—is often the best form of success.

ENLIGHTENMENT

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  • Why coming in second can be the best thing that happened to you

  • Why power skills are the key to business success

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MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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Disclaimers
Mode Mobile recently received their ticker reservation with Nasdaq ($MODE), indicating an intent to IPO in the next 24 months. An intent to IPO is no guarantee that an actual IPO will occur.
The Deloitte rankings are based on submitted applications and public company database research, with winners selected based on their fiscal-year revenue growth percentage over a three-year period.
This offer is only open to accredited investors. 

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