Good morning and Happy Friday! Jamie Dimon says he’s “more worried than most” about a meaningful stock market drop in the next six months to two years. Nvidia hit a record high after reports of UAE export approval and a fresh price target bump. And silver hit a 45-year high, even outpacing gold’s rally with a 58% gain this year.

Manhattan rents are finally easing from record highs thanks to seasonal shifts, but a new study found that for some guests, attending a wedding is starting to cost as much as a month’s rent.

Plus: Tiger Woods-backed venture is a finalist for the NFL’s new flag football league, animal spirits are back in M&A, employees are willing to take a 25% pay cut to work remotely, and how to actually land that raise or promotion.

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SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Craft Beer Bubble Bursting

Americans are sobering up, and the beer industry is feeling it. In 2025, just 54% of U.S. adults say they drink alcohol, the lowest level in nearly 90 years.

Among young adults, the drop is even sharper: only about half of Gen Z drinks at all, with many swapping beer for mocktails or edibles. Over half of Americans now say even moderate drinking is unhealthy, up sharply from last year.

That pullback in demand comes at the worst possible time for craft beer. After decades of expansion, the $28.8 billion craft beer industry is now confronting a reckoning.

In 2024, production slumped by 4%, the steepest drop outside the pandemic, and mid-2025 data shows another 5% decline year over year. Brewery closures are now outpacing new openings for the first time in years, and the once-buzzy boom is starting to look like a bubble.

At the Great American Beer Festival in Denver, where attendees once came solely for hops and hazy IPAs, organizers have quietly diversified. The event now features live music, cider, cocktails, hard seltzers, and even nonalcoholic options. “Consumer preferences are evolving,” says Ann Obenchain of the Brewers Association. “Some are drinking less, and some are not always reaching for a beer.”

The irony is that the very culture of experimentation that built the craft beer empire may now be accelerating its decline. With thousands of small breweries chasing a shrinking pool of customers, the market is oversaturated, margins are thin, and enthusiasm is running dry.

Takeaway: The craft beer boom was built on endless novelty and endless drinking. But if fewer people are drinking, all the creative hops and taproom gimmicks in the world won’t save the bubble. The smartest brewers will pivot to low-ABV and even nonalcoholic options. Turns out, the future of beer might be… no beer at all.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Attending a wedding now costs as much as a month’s rent for many guests 

• Jamie Dimon says he’s worried about a stock market correction (CNN)

• Nvidia hits a record as UAE export approval chatter and price-target hikes fuel rally (YF)

• Silver hits $50 for first time in decades (BB)

• Manhattan rents ease from record highs on seasonal shift (BB)

• Attending a wedding now costs as much as a month’s rent for many guests (CNBC)

• Tiger Woods-backed venture among finalists for NFL’s new flag football league (BB)

• Chicago-based accounting firm weighs private-equity ownership (WSJ)

• “Animal spirits” are back in M&A as dealmaking heats up, JPMorgan says (BB)

• Josh Harris on building cultures of excellence in business and sports (McKinsey)

• Microsoft teams with Harvard Health on healthcare AI push (WSJ)

• Experts warn that parts of the AI boom are starting to look like a bubble (BB)

• Big banks walk a political tightrope in Trump’s Washington (YF)

• Golub commits $1B to back other PE firms’ secondary funds (BB)

• HSBC to buy out Hang Seng Bank minority stake for $13.6B (YF)

• New York Attorney General Letitia James charged in a fraud case (NYP)

• Family offices still bet on AI and healthcare even as deal pace slows (CNBC)

• Ontario Teachers’ pivots back to old-school private equity (BB)

• Demand surges for private-credit secondaries amid volatility (WSJ)

• How Jefferies and UBS ended up exposed to First Brands’ collapse (BB)

• Hedge funds are dialing back equity exposure amid market caution (BB)

• How much pay will workers sacrifice for remote work? (LI)

• America’s manufacturing resurgence will be powered by factory robots (WSJ)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Stocks paused after record highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipping modestly following Wednesday’s rally

• AI optimism and rate-cut expectations continue to support sentiment, though valuation concerns are emerging

• Japan’s Nikkei hit another record, boosted by an 11% surge in SoftBank after it agreed to acquire ABB’s robotics unit for $5.4 billion

• U.S. dollar extended its gains, helped by political uncertainty in France and Japan’s new expansionary-leaning leadership

• Silver prices jumped to new highs, extending the strong run across precious metals

Economic Data Highlights

• Markets remain supported by twin tailwinds: secular growth from AI innovation and cyclical momentum from lower rates

• Tech’s weight in the S&P 500 reached 35%, reflecting AI’s growing market impact

• Semiconductor stocks continue to lead, supported by accelerating investment in AI infrastructure and data centers

• Fed easing has boosted cyclicals, including consumer discretionary, small- and mid-caps, and emerging markets

• While the outlook remains positive, periodic pullbacks are likely after an extended stretch of strong gains and low volatility.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Tilray Brands ($TLRY) +22% after the cannabis company reported earnings.

• (+) Delta ($DAL) +4% because the airline posted strong Q3 earnings.

• (–) Ferrari ($RACE) -15% after the automaker cut its electrification targets.

Private Dealmaking

• Novo Nordisk agreed to buy Akero Therapeutics for $5.2 billion

• Base Power, a home power backup company, raised $1 billion

• IQVIA agreed to acquire Cedar Gate Technologies for $750 million

• n8n, an AI orchestration platform, raised $180 million

• Kadant acquired Clyde Industries for $175 million

• Expedition Therapeutics, a biotech developing drug candidates, raised $165 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

The World’s Worst Bet

Description:
A critical reexamination of the globalization promise—how it was sold as a win-win but left many nations weakened, inequality deeper, and economies hollowed out. Lynch traces how decisions in politics, trade policy, and corporate strategy created structural risks. More than diagnosis, he offers a roadmap for reforms that reconcile global integration with national resilience.

Book Length: 416 pages

Ideal For: Economists, policymakers, business leaders, and anyone skeptical of status-quo globalization narratives and interested in how we might “get it right” this time.

“A painfully convincing history of how both political parties decided that worldwide free trade was a good thing—and how that bet is starting to unravel.”

DAILY VISUAL

The Dangers of Passive Investing

The average U.S. worker ends up putting about ~$2,300 a year into Mag7 stocks through their 401(k), thanks to the group’s outsized weight in the S&P 500.

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DAILY ACUMEN

Status Quo Bias

Markets cling to narratives long past their expiration, dot-coms in 1999, housing in 2007, AI darlings today.

Humans cling to habits the same way.

We keep jobs we hate, routines that drain us, relationships that don’t fit, because inertia feels safer than change.

Status quo bias is an invisible tax: it bleeds opportunity while pretending to protect you.

The cure is reframing: what would I do if I had to start from zero today? 

That question slices through inertia like a knife.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• How to really get a raise or promotion

• How to create harmony between your personal and professional goals

• Career variety can be fulfilling, but don’t let it get too spicy

• There are no rules for success

• How the science of stoicism can boost your wellbeing 

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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