Good Morning and Happy Friday! All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell as he delivers his much-anticipated Jackson Hole speech at 10am ET, with markets pricing in a ~70% chance of a September rate cut.

Nvidia saw at least nine analysts lift their price targets ahead of next week’s earnings. Private AI valuations are surging too, with Anthropic in talks to raise up to $10B at a $170B valuation, while Databricks is targeting around $100B.

Plus: Daughter of Renaissance Technologies founder James Simons donated $250K to a pro-Mamdani PAC, private valuations are blasting past historic IPO caps, Chipotle is testing drone delivery in Dallas, and 2.5 million on dating app Raya’s waitlist.

See how leading PE firms are rethinking waterfall models. If exits are even a small part of your mandate next year, this report is worth a read.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Cracked Barrel

Cracker Barrel just unveiled a new logo change for the first time since 1977. And anti-woke backlash sent the stock cratering.

The Southern restaurant-and-retail chain (known for its biscuits, fried chicken, and country breakfasts, along with its attached gift shops selling old-fashioned candy, toys, and home goods) is embarking on a $700 million brand makeover across its 660-plus locations, including remodeled stores, new menu items, TV ads, and a new logo.

But investors and brand die-hards alike aren’t too thrilled with the new design, which drops the overalls-clad man and wooden barrel that had embodied the chain’s southern hospitality for 56 years.

Critics argue Cracker Barrel is straying from its nostalgic roots, and with profit margins hovering near 1.5% (about a third of its peers), it’s a risky move.

Shares of Cracker Barrel (CBRL) tumbled as much as 12% yesterday before closing down 7.2%, erasing roughly $100 million in market value and capping a 16% five-day slide, the company’s worst stretch since February.

Even Donald Trump Jr. piled on, posting: “WTF is wrong with @CrackerBarrel??!”

Analysts say this follows a familiar pattern: when companies roll out DEI or bold rebrand initiatives, backlash can quickly spill into the stock price, with Bud Light and Jaguar serving as cautionary tales.

Takeaway: Cracker Barrel is standing by the logo change, calling it the next step in staying relevant. But the selloff is a reminder that Wall Street will happily price in the risk of a rebrand. In today’s market, even swapping a barrel for a new font can spark a boycott, a culture war, or at least a few million lost in market cap.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• What Wall Street expects from Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday (CNBC)

• Wall Street stampedes to raise Nvidia price targets before earnings (BB)

• Anthropic in talks to raise up to $10B in fresh funding (BB)

• Databricks says it's valued at over $100 billion in latest funding round (CNBC)

• Walmart slips on rare profit miss, citing higher claims (CNN)

• Blackstone makes fresh $1.6B bet on electrification (BB)

• Thoma Bravo agrees to buy HR software firm Dayforce (Axios)

• Chipotle starts flying burritos with Zipline drone delivery (CBS)

• Startup valuations now blasting past historic IPO market caps (WSJ)

• Companies are planning fewer hires (WSJ)

• Singles are sick of dating apps but there are 2.5 million on Raya’s waiting list (WSJ)

• JPMorgan hires two senior investment bankers in expansion push (YF)

• AI is vacuuming up VC money, fueling new bubble talk (BB)

• Stocks retreat after jobless claims and Walmart earnings miss (YF)

• BlackRock advises investors to put more money in hedge funds (FT)

• BofA names Ahmad and Joo co-heads in investment banking shakeup (BB)

• Why workers are leaving the office earlier but still on time (WSJ)

• Study shows sharp decline in reading for pleasure (NYT)

• Disney launches standalone ESPN streaming service, reshaping sports media (YF)

• Billionaire hedge fund heir Elizabeth Simons donates $250K to pro-Zohran Mamdani super PAC (NYP)

PRESENTED BY CARTA

Why Your Waterfall Models Are Leaving Money on the Table

The difference between a good exit and a great one in today’s M&A landscape hinges on precise waterfall distributions.

The next wave of M&A exits is more complex than ever; layered cap tables, structured rights, and increased scrutiny.

For PE firms still relying on Excel, these factors create a ceiling for accuracy and confidence. Carta’s latest whitepaper outlines how top firms are improving clarity, speed, and auditability with purpose-built waterfall modeling tools.

Inside, you’ll learn:

• Why firms are retiring spreadsheet-based waterfall models

• How forward-thinking GPs and CFOs are leveling up M&A readiness

• What makes a “good” waterfall model in today’s landscape

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. large-cap stocks fell again, with the Magnificent 7 down >1% for a second straight session, pulling the Nasdaq lower by 0.4% and leaving it down >2% for the week.

• The S&P 500 has declined in 4 of the last 5 sessions; performance was similarly weak in Europe, Japan, and EM equities.

• Treasuries sold off, with 2-year yields up 4 bps, as solid data and hawkish Fed commentary trimmed September cut odds.

• Dollar gained vs. majors; WTI crude edged up to $63/barrel.

Economic Data Highlights

• Flash PMI surveys showed stronger-than-expected activity in both services and manufacturing, but also more firms reporting rising price pressures.

• Jobless claims rose more than expected to 235K, though still historically low; continuing claims climbed to 1.97M, a multiyear high.

Reported Earnings

• Walmart (WMT) – Q2 EPS missed expectations due to one-time charges, but sales were solid; raised full-year sales outlook.

• Intuit (INTU) – Revenue and EPS both exceeded estimates; small business and AI-driven products supported guidance.

• Zoom (ZM) – Posted better-than-expected EPS; enterprise adoption held steady, with AI collaboration tools highlighted as growth drivers.

Earnings Today

• No significant earnings scheduled

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Paramount Skydance ($PSKY) +15% after the company became a meme stock.

• (+) Hewlett-Packard Enterprise ($HPE) +4% because of an upgrade by Morgan Stanley.

• (–) Coty ($COTY) -22% after the cosmetics maker reported a loss.

Private Dealmaking

• Thoma Bravo agreed to buy Dayforce for $12.3 billion

• Blackstone agreed to buy Shermco for $1.6 billion

• Carlyle agreed to buy Intelliflo for $205 million

• Nuro, an autonomous driving tech developer, raised $200 million

• Digi International acquired Jolt Software for $146 million

• Ames Watson agreed to buy the North American business of Claire’s for $104 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Win The Inside Game

Description: A deeply researched guide that redefines success by shifting focus from performance anxiety to inner alignment. Drawing on eight years of study, hundreds of interviews, and scientific insights, Magness introduces a transformative framework—Be, Do, Belong—that helps readers gain clarity in identity, purpose, and connection to thrive rather than merely survive.

Rating: 
Amazon 4.7 / 5
Goodreads 4 / 5

Book Length: 320 pages
Audible Length: Approximately 7 hrs 18 mins

Ideal For: High performers, leaders, coaches, and anyone stuck in a loop of burnout or validation-seeking, who yearn to reclaim flow, purpose, and sustainable fulfillment.

“Under pressure we don’t update; we protect… We feel threatened, so we avoid, escape, or shut down.”

DAILY VISUAL

Want more? Visualize the markets with Carbon Finance

PRESENTED BY CRYPTO 101

How to Play the Crypto Summer

The digital asset experts at Crypto 101 have published a new guide, Crypto Revolution, that outlines three research-backed strategies for building long-term wealth in the digital asset market, starting with modest investments.

You’ll also receive an exclusive briefing on the coin their analysts consider the most promising in today’s market. The book is complimentary; readers simply cover the cost of shipping.

DAILY ACUMEN

Spread

In markets, the spread is the gap between bid and ask.

In life, your spread is the difference between what you offer and what others can easily find elsewhere.

If you’re a generic analyst, your spread is razor-thin, you’re replaceable.

But if you’re the analyst who codes, who understands distribution channels, who can tell a story as well as model numbers, your spread widens.

The wider the spread, the more value you capture.

Luxury goods live on spread, why does a Rolex cost $12,000 when it tells time no better than a Casio?

Because perception, scarcity, and brand expand the spread.

So it is with you.

Stack rare skills, signal credibility, and lean into what makes you hard to substitute.

In markets, traders hunt for tight spreads to avoid slippage.

In life, you should do the opposite: cultivate the widest spread you can, so the world has no choice but to meet you at your ask.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Why it’s time to streamline how you communicate at work

• Tim Ferriss on success, experimentation, and the power of saying no

• 5 books the world’s most productive people swear by

• 5 tricks to turn small talk into big opportunities

• Why learning multiple languages might be overrated

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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