Good Morning! Snowflake was forced to file an 8-K after its CRO dropped an unapproved guidance number in a street interview. JPMorgan told investors it has a “strong bias” against adding staff, while Goldman said it will “constrain headcount growth through year-end.”

PayPal signed a deal with OpenAI to become the first payments wallet integrated into ChatGPT. Grubhub is partnering with Instacart for grocery delivery. And Barclays will pay $800 million for lending startup Best Egg as it expands its U.S. personal banking footprint.

Plus: Sequoia is investing in an AI tool that could replace junior bankers, Brookfield says private credit isn’t crowding out private equity, the case against bonds, and why is microshifting the future of work.

With $170M in reservations already in, NatGold is drawing early interest as a gold-backed alternative to fiat. Learn more.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Business, Not Bubble

The world’s biggest tech companies are trying to stave off growth concerns and are instead betting that investors will buy into a new narrative: AI isn’t a bubble, it’s a business. And so far, it’s working. Microsoft and Apple both joined the $4 trillion market cap club yesterday, and Nvidia is closing in on $5 trillion after reigniting the AI hype train in Washington.

At its first-ever GTC “AI Super Bowl” in D.C., Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told investors that the AI buildout is far from overheated; it’s accelerating. He projected $500 billion in chip revenue and announced even more partnerships. Some highlights below:

• Uber will use Nvidia systems to power 100,000 self-driving cars.

• Lucid Motors is building its next-gen autonomous platform on Nvidia chips. 

• Nokia secured a $1 billion Nvidia investment to pivot into AI infrastructure. (Nokia popped +23% on the news)

• CrowdStrike is partnering with Nvidia to develop adaptive cybersecurity agents.

• Palantir is integrating Nvidia GPUs into its logistics platform. 

• Eli Lilly is building the most powerful pharmaceutical supercomputer ever.

The pitch worked. Nvidia shares jumped ~6% to a record $204 (at time of writing), putting Nvidia within striking distance of $5 trillion in market value. Huang’s message, “customers are paying happily,” is a direct challenge to months of AI bubble talk.

And in Big Tech, Microsoft and Apple both closed above $4 trillion for the first time. Microsoft’s rally followed OpenAI’s $500 billion for-profit conversion, which gave the company a 27% equity stake and locked in $250 billion worth of Azure contracts through 2032. Apple’s climb, up ~25% in three months, came from strong iPhone 17 sales ahead of earnings later this week.

Takeaway: The AI business (or bubble) is showing no signs of slowing down and investors are piling in. Nvidia is up over 130% from April lows. Enterprise budgets are growing, real customers are signing large contracts, and demand clearly isn’t saturated. There’s still valuation risk, but for now FOMO is doing more buying than the fear of bubbles is selling.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Snowflake files 8-K after CRO drops unapproved guidance on the street (SS)

• More big companies bet they can keep growing without hiring (WSJ)

• PayPal strikes payments deal with OpenAI for ChatGPT transactions (CNBC)

• Domino’s Pizza shares fall after denying Bain Capital takeover interest (BB)

• Barclays to acquire US lending firm Best Egg for $800M (YF)

• GrubHub gets into groceries with new Instacart deal (BB)

• Brookfield says private credit isn’t crowding out private equity (BB)

• Sequoia invests in AI tool that could replace junior bankers (BB)

• JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon renews his return-to-office campaign (QZ)

• Layoffs mount at major employers amid tough labor market (YF)

• Dealmaking roars back to life under Trump 2.0 (Axios)

• PwC scraps hiring pledge amid revenue slowdown, AI impact (LI)

• UPS outperforms expectations after eliminating 48K jobs (YF)

• “Venture capital is not an asset class,” says Sequoia investor (YF)

• Novartis CEO says company has firepower for major M&A deals (CNBC)

• Cathie Wood says humanoid robots will be “the biggest of all AI opportunities” (CNBC)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Markets pushed to new highs, led by mega-cap tech as the “Magnificent 7” rallied ~1.3%.

• Outside of tech, most sectors and the equal-weighted S&P 500 finished lower.

• 10-year Treasury yield held around ~4.0 % as bonds were steady.

• WTI crude oil slipped below $60 per barrel; gold continued to slide, nearly 10 % off its October peak.

• Trade developments include President Trump’s upcoming meetings with China’s President Xi and Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi at the APEC summit this week.

Economic Data Highlights

• Corporate earnings remain strong: the share of S&P 500 companies beating expectations is at a four-year high.

• Recent wins include UPS (better-than-expected results) and United Health Group (raised full-year outlook).

• The data calendar remains thin as the government shutdown delays key releases; price and activity indicators remain the primary signals.

• The backdrop supports another Fed rate cut this week as policymakers weigh a cooling labour market against mild inflation pressures.

Earnings Today

• Microsoft (MSFT) – Investors focused on Azure growth, AI infrastructure spending and margin sustainability.

• Meta Platforms (META) – Watch for monetization of AI investments, ad-revenue strength and AI-capex guidance.

• Alphabet (GOOGL) – Key metrics: cloud/AI momentum, YouTube growth trends and guidance on search/advertising.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Wayfair ($W) +23% after the e-commerce company beat earnings. 

• (+) Nvidia ($NVDA) +5%  because the chipmaker announced a partnership with Palantir.

• (–) Everest Group ($EG) -11% after the insurance company missed earnings.

Prediction Markets

• Earnings Call Spotlight (today after market close): Alphabet (Google)

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Cygnet Energy agreed to acquire Kiwetinohk Energy for $1 billion

• Mercor, a data-labeling firm, raised $350 million

• Whatnot, a live-shopping platform for collectibles, raised $225 million

• Hemab Therapeutics, a blood disorder biotech, raised $157 million

• Sublime Security, an agentic email security platform, raised $150 million

• Zag Bio, a developer of thymus-targeted medicines for autoimmune diseases, raised $80 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Every Screen on the Planet

Description:
An engrossing investigation into how the social-video giant TikTok evolved from a niche app to the center of a geopolitical storm. Baker-White charts TikTok’s transformation into the world’s most valuable startup and how its innovative algorithm, global reach, and ties to China’s tech ecosystem triggered a full-blown battleground over data, influence, and power.

Book Length: 368 pages

Ideal For: Tech watchers, policy analysts, media critics, entrepreneurs, and anyone curious about how a mobile app became a fulcrum in the U.S.–China data war.

“What you scroll may be personal—but who controls the algorithm decides what you see.”

DAILY VISUAL

Hyperscaler Capex Spending Booming

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DAILY ACUMEN

Inputs

Your output is only as good as your input.

Most people try to fix their work by working harder, not realizing that effort can’t compensate for poor raw material.

Garbage ideas in, garbage strategies out.

Curate what enters your brain as carefully as an investor curates a portfolio.

Read things that stretch you, talk to people who challenge you, consume content that sharpens your perspective.

You are not what you eat, you are what you absorb.

Protect your mental diet like it’s your balance sheet.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• How to train your nervous system for optimal performance

• Should you be a leader?

• How to lead when the conditions for success disappear

• Why is microshifting the future of work

• The case against holding bonds

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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