Good Morning & Happy Friday! Bridgewater’s flagship macro fund is up 26.4% through the first nine months, on pace for its best year since 2010.

Apollo-owned Yahoo is in advanced talks to sell AOL to Italy’s Bending Spoons for ~$1.4B. Tesla sales jumped as buyers rushed to lock in the $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit before it expired on Oct 1.

S&P bulls are betting the index will hit 7,000 by year-end. Elon Musk told his followers to cancel Netflix, accusing the company of pushing a transgender agenda. And Steve Schwarzman is facing backlash in the U.K. after residents tracked water tankers filling a lake on his $110M Conholt Park estate.

Plus: The mysterious Jane Street billionaire smashing trading records, AI-driven M&A may be about to flood the market, and the 0.01% Rule for smarter spending decisions.

Trade on what Goldman will say in their next earnings call.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Buffett’s Last Dance

Warren Buffett, at 95, is winding down and preparing to hand the reins of Berkshire Hathaway to Greg Abel by year-end. But he’s not done dealmaking just yet.

On Thursday, Berkshire announced a $9.7 billion cash deal to buy Occidental Petroleum’s chemical arm, OxyChem, Buffett’s biggest acquisition since the $11.6 billion Alleghany takeover in 2022.

The move comes as Berkshire sits on a near-record $344 billion cash pile, a war chest Buffett has lamented is tough to put to work with “market euphoria” making true value bargains scarce. Buffett knows Occidental well and Berkshire already owns 28.2% of the Houston oil giant, but he’s made clear he won’t take control of the parent. 

Instead, OxyChem, which makes chemicals for water treatment, health care, batteries, swimming pools, caustic soda and other industrial uses, will join Berkshire as a stand-alone operating subsidiary.

While not necessarily a flashy acquisition, it’s exactly the kind of boring, capital-heavy, cash-flow-stable business Buffett loves. The last time Berkshire ventured into chemicals was its $10 billion Lubrizol deal in 2011.

For Occidental, proceeds will fund a $6.5 billion debt reduction, restart share repurchases and advance CEO Vicki Hollub’s decade-long balance sheet repair following the leveraged $38 billion Anadarko Petroleum acquisition in 2019.

GOAT out 🖐️⬇️🎤.

Takeaway: This could be Buffett’s last big swing as he trades excess cash for a moaty, industrial cash generator that fits Berkshire’s DNA. For Occidental, it’s a lifeline and balance-sheet reset. Even in the twilight of his CEO tenure, Warren Buffett is still waiting patiently to source deals and invest when he thinks he has found a good bargain. 

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Bridgewater surges 26%, leading the pack of the world’s biggest hedge funds (BB)

• OpenAI wraps $6.6 billion share sale at $500 billion valuation (CNBC)

• Yahoo nearing deal to sell AOL to Italy’s Bending Spoons for $1.4B (YF)

• Tesla reports blowout Q3 deliveries as buyers rush ahead of tax credit expiry (YF)

• Tom Lee sees S&P 500 topping 7,000 by year-end, dismisses shutdown fears (CNBC)

• Elon Musk calls for boycott of Netflix over Dead End: Paranormal Park (Fox)

• How Steve Schwarzman landed in hot water with his British neighbors (WSJ)

• Dan Ives says AI-driven M&A floodgates are about to open, lists takeover targets (CNBC)

• Why rate cuts could be the next big market risk (Axios)

• KKR may cash out $7B stake in Pembina Gas Infrastructure (YF) 

• Trump’s wealth, once shunned by banks, finds a new home at Citigroup (BB)

• CVC Credit raises $10B+ in latest direct lending push (BB)

• Florida insurance founders become billionaires despite risky market (BB)

• Apollo ramps up trading of private assets in secondary markets (BB)

• Goldman Sachs sees more upside for gold on rising private demand (BB)

• CME Group to launch 24/7 crypto and options trading in early 2026 (MSN)

• Trump strikes compact with universities to unlock federal funds (WSJ)

• Blackstone adds $2B French deal to expanding warehouse bet (BB)

• The mysterious billionaire boss at Jane Street smashing trading records (BB)

PRESENTED BY KALSHI

Goldman Earnings Call

Kalshi has opened a market on the language that Goldman Sachs executives will use during the company’s Q3 earnings call on October 14 at 8:00 a.m. ET.

Traders are currently pricing the odds of key terms being mentioned:

• “M&A” – 93%

• “Europe” – 25%

• “Recession” – 38%

• “Tariffs” – 36%

The market settles based on any Goldman Sachs representative (including the operator and executives) mentioning the term during the call or Q&A, verified by official transcripts.

Trade now on what Goldman will say this earnings season.

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Stocks closed higher as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched record closing highs

• Materials and technology led gains, while energy and consumer discretionary lagged

• 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.09%, down from earlier this week’s 4.18%

• Asia finished broadly higher, led by South Korea’s Kospi on Samsung/ SK Hynix–OpenAI deal

• WTI oil near four-month low on continued oversupply concerns

Economic Data Highlights

• Labor-market data delays begin as the shutdown halts initial jobless-claims release

• Claims were expected at 223k vs. 218k prior, but data postponed

• September jobs report canceled, which was forecast to show +50k payrolls and 4.3% unemployment

• Labor market cooling but not collapsing, with 7.2m openings vs. 7.4m unemployed

• Wage growth ~3.7% y/y still outpaces CPI of ~2.9%, supporting consumption

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Fair Isaac ($FICO) +18% after the company behind FICO scores unveiled a system that cuts out credit bureau middlemen.

• (+) Acadia Healthcare ($ACHC) +8% because activist investor Krohm Capital pushed the company to explore strategic alternatives.

• (–) Occidental Petroleum ($OXY) -7% after Berkshire Hathaway bought the company’s chemicals business for $9.7B.

Private Dealmaking

• Thoma Bravo agreed to buy PROS Holdings for $1.4 billion

• Periodic Labs, an “AI scientist” startup, raised $300 million

• Waat, a provider of EV charging for buildings, raised $109 million

• Einride, a provider of autonomous freight solutions, raised $100 million

• Cartography Biosciences, a developer of colon cancer therapies, raised $67 million

• Cardless, a credit card platform, raised $60 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Breakneck

Description: A bold, firsthand investigation into China as an “engineering state” — obsessed with building infrastructure, solving problems via technocratic power, and reshaping society at speed. Against that, Wang sets the image of the U.S. as a “lawyerly society,” more cautious and constrained by process. The contrast drives his narrative: how China builds fast, often regardless of cost, and what that means for global power, innovation, and governance.

Book Length: 288 pages
Release Date: August 26, 2025

Ideal For:
Geopolitics readers, tech watchers, policy analysts, comparative thinkers, and anyone trying to understand the structural forces behind China’s rapid rise and America’s faltering momentum.

“China builds. America argues. The future belongs to the one that learns to balance both.”

DAILY VISUAL

What Goes Up Must Come Down

PRESENTED BY MEANWHILE

Whole Life Insurance That Earns, Borrows, and Pays in BTC

Selling Bitcoin means giving up upside and paying taxes. Borrowing it means high rates and liquidation risk. Meanwhile offers another path: Bitcoin-denominated whole life insurance.

Fund a policy with BTC, earn 2% annually (in Bitcoin), and borrow up to 90% of your policy’s value at a fixed 3% interest rate, with no repayment schedule. Your loan’s cost basis locks in when borrowed, creating potential tax efficiency as Bitcoin appreciates.

Unlike crypto lending platforms that charge 8–14% interest and risk margin calls, Meanwhile policies are:

• Fully regulated in Bermuda

• Backed by audited capital reserves

• Structured to avoid currency mismatch ie. no forced selling

Key Benefits:

• Earn ~2% BTC compounding annually, tax-efficiently

• Borrow Bitcoin backed by Bitcoin; no liquidation risk

• Guaranteed BTC payouts to your family

• No need to manage private keys or trust third-party lenders

Keep your upside, skip the taxes, and protect your family in Bitcoin.

DAILY ACUMEN

Survivorship Bias

We worship winners—Buffett, Jobs, Musk—and forget the graveyard of thousands who tried the same and failed.

Survivorship bias warps judgment: “This worked for them, so it’ll work for me.”

But in investing, in startups, even in relationships, the failure rate is the base rate.

Learning means studying not just who survived, but why others didn’t.

Otherwise you’re building a map that only shows the peaks and ignores the cliffs.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• 6 ways to start early and boost your mood

• The 80-hour myth and why we’re addicted to being busy

• How successful leaders gain clarity while building executive presence 

• The 0.01% Rule for spending decisions

• Why some great leaders freeze in high-stakes moments

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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