Good Morning and Happy Friday! The Supreme Court signaled Trump can’t fire Fed Chair Powell, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stocks skyrocketed to their highest since 2008 on privatization hype, and the Treasury Department plans to phase out penny production for good.

OnlyFans’ parent company is eyeing an $8 billion sale, buying the dip might be a guy thing according to a BlackRock study, and Apple is aiming to release smart glasses in 2026 as part of its AI push.

Plus: The U.S. government banned Harvard’s foreign enrollment, Jamie Dimon flags stagflation risks, and new science reveals just how badly sleep deprivation wrecks your brain.

Spot critical errors before they cost you—see how Macabacus makes financial modeling faster, safer, and smarter.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Bonus Cuts for Remote Workers

While many banks have cracked down on remote work over the past few years, HSBC just became the first to put a financial penalty on it.

The bank’s UK division warned its 23,000 retail and commercial banking staff that, if they fail to spend at least 60% of their time in the office, they could see their bonus cut. 

While we’ve seen other banks give a return-to-office nudge, HSBC is the first one we’ve seen explicitly tie compensation to office attendance. HSBC managers are also being told to monitor in-office attendance and even bring it up during reviews. HSBC’s updated policy also includes new data tracking tools to help enforce the mandate.

Wall Street is still pushing return-to-office for the firms that haven’t. BlackRock is considering a full five-day office return for senior managers, and Jamie Dimon is still ranting about remote work. 

While Citi is the rare firm that allows up to two remote days a week, even that feels like a fading perk. 

Takeaway: HSBC is giving its employees an ultimatum—work from home if you must, but don’t expect a full bonus. And with 2025 struggling to deliver on the lofty M&A expectations… we might see HSBC bankers make out even worse next bonus day.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Supreme Court insulates Fed while backing Trump firing of agency leaders (CNBC)

• Fannie, Freddie shares surge as Trump again floats privatization (BB)

• Treasury Department set to phase out the penny (CBS)

• Trump defies ethics warnings with private meme coin dinner (Axios)

• Why the bond market is barfing (Axios)

• Jamie Dimon warns that stagflation is still a risk (CNN)

• Buying the dip might be a guy thing, BlackRock study finds (Axios)

• UBS raises S&P year end target, eyes more gains in 2026 (YF)

• Lutnick's bold bet: Trade deals are coming, higher prices aren't (Axios)

• Apple plans glasses for 2026 as part of AI push (BB)

• Ray Dalio says to fear the bond market as deficit becomes critical (CNBC)

• AI is helping execs tackle the post-vacation inbox (BB)

• OnlyFans owner in talks to sell to investor group at about $8B value (YF)

• Rolex consolidates retail in NYC as Patek expands (BB)

• Jony Ive and OpenAI make a long-shot bet to kill the iPhone (BB)

• Hong Kong ramps up tax checks on PE, VC funds (BB)

• Harvard's foreign enrollment banned (NYT)

PRESENTED BY MACABACUS

The Fastest Way to Find a $20M Mistake

Financial modeling errors can cost more than just time—they can impact deals, forecasts, and credibility. With Model Check and Tracing Tools, Macabacus gives you the edge in speed and precision.

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Tracing Tools: Trace precedents and dependents across spreadsheets to ensure modeling accuracy.

Formula Flow: Step through complex formulas to understand their structure at a glance and identify any errors quickly.

Whether you’re building a pitch, a forecast, or a buy-side model, Macabacus ensures your models are accurate, reliable, and ready for high-stakes analysis—without the manual grind.

See Formula Modeling & Auditing in Action.

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. stocks edged lower Thursday after the House passed the tax and spending bill, raising deficit concerns and adding volatility to bond markets.

• Consumer discretionary and communication services outperformed, while utilities and health care lagged.

• Bond yields declined, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.54%, as investors priced in potential fiscal deterioration.

• Initial jobless claims came in at 227,000, below expectations, while continued claims rose slightly to 1.9 million.

• European markets declined following a weaker-than-expected eurozone services PMI, while Asian markets were mixed. WTI crude fell on concerns about additional OPEC+ supply.

Economic Data Highlights

• Tax and spending bill: Passed in House (215–214); includes permanent tax cuts and SALT relief

• CBO projection: Estimated $2.4T deficit impact over 10 years, likely closer to $3T with interest and interaction effects

• S&P Flash Services PMI (May): Rose to 52.3 – modest expansion continues

• S&P Flash Manufacturing PMI (May): Rose to 52.3 – boosted by record inventory buildup ahead of tariffs

• Jobless claims: 227K initial; 1.9M continued – labor market remains tight

Reported Earnings

• Intuit (INTU) – Posted strong tax season performance with growth in small business and personal finance segments.

• Workday (WDAY) – Beat expectations on revenue and margins; enterprise demand remained healthy.

• Autodesk (ADSK) – Delivered solid results with strength in recurring revenue and large-enterprise deals.

Earnings Today

• No significant earnings releases.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Advance Auto Parts ($AAP) +57% after announcing strong Q1 earnings; turnaround plan working.

• (+) Fannie Mae ($FNMA) +51% because Trump is floating privatization plans again.

• (–) Humana ($HUM) -8% after reports of Medicare cuts.

Private Dealmaking

• Sanofi bought Vigil Neuroscience for up to $600 million 

• LMArena, an AI model reliability platform, raised $100 million

• Legora, a legal tech startup, raised $80 million

• Siro, a sales rep coaching platform, raised $50 million 

• Somite, a human cell modeling developer, raised $47 million

• Slash, a vertical banking startup, raised $41 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

How To Work With Complicated People

Who is the most complicated person you work with?

You probably don’t have to think very hard to answer that question.

You already know their name, their job title, their quirks, and their flaws.

You have firsthand experience with the mental and emotional fallout they leave in their wake.

You’ve seen the problems their complexity creates for everyone on their team.

You wish you could fix them, solve them, ignore them, or teleport them to a parallel dimension.

But you can’t.

You have to work with them.

(You could quit, but your next job will have a complicated person waiting for you.)

“Bestselling author and transformational speaker Ryan Leak shares research-based strategies for working with even the most challenging people to create more collaborative and productive teams.”

DAILY VISUAL

Culture Wars

Brands with the largest decline in reputation score from 2019 to 2025 (Survey of 16,585 U.S. adults conducted March 6-22, 2025)

PRESENTED BY KALSHI

Who Will Win the Nobel Peace Prize?

Not every trade turns on earnings reports or inflation data. Sometimes, it’s about who the Nobel Committee believes has brought a measure of calm to a turbulent world.

Ironically, this year, two of the top three contenders are Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump—figures who have each, in their own way, stirred global headlines and debate.

Regardless of your perspective, the odds are compelling: a $100 position on Trump could return $940 if he’s selected.

Kalshi remains the only CFTC-regulated prediction market in the U.S., offering a legal way to trade on real-world events—from macroeconomic indicators to the Nobel Peace Prize.

DAILY ACUMEN

Legends Series: Howard Marks

Howard Marks doesn’t claim to predict the future. He reads the room.

The legendary Oaktree Capital co-founder built his career on one simple truth: markets move in cycles. Booms breed excess. Busts breed bargains.

The trick isn’t knowing the exact top or bottom—it’s knowing where you are in the cycle.

Marks writes that most investing mistakes come from emotion, not analysis—from extrapolating the recent past forever. In good times, people overpay. In bad times, they freeze.

Right now, the cycle is fuzzy. The S&P is rallying, but job growth is slowing. Inflation is cooling, but growth is too. Fed cuts may come—but what if they’re too late?

Marks’ advice in uncertain phases like this: stay alert, not afraid. This is the time to carefully reposition, not blindly chase. Focus on resilience, not returns.

Because in investing, the pendulum always swings. And when it does—you want to be on the right side of the arc.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Upgrade your morning investing insights with Opening Bell Daily

• What poor sleep does to your brain

• Are you really ready to be a manager?

• What is the best time to wake up?

• The 10 U.S. cities where rents are rising the fastest

• Is time management a strength or challenge for you?

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Memes of the Day

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