Good Morning! JPMorgan’s top European banker predicts a major M&A rebound in 2026. The government shutdown has stalled SEC efforts to allow private equity and credit in 401(k) plans. And UBS is moving closer to a historic relocation out of Switzerland after getting wooed by the Trump administration.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang completed a $1 billion share sale. And KPMG will now rate employees on how effectively they use AI in annual performance reviews.

Plus: How AI could make toxic bosses even worse, and marathon times are becoming the new status symbol for Wall Street’s elite.

Compliance can be a major headache for growth stage companies primed for scale. Vanta removes that complexity and has the client list to prove it. Read more about how.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

BlackRock’s $500M Blunder

Scammers can get the best of all of us. Just take BlackRock for example. The world’s largest asset manager was duped by a little-known telecom operator in India, in what court filings describe as a “breathtaking” fraud.

The alleged mastermind, Bankim Brahmbhatt, ran small firms called Broadband Telecom, Bridgevoice, and Carriox Capital. Through these entities, he secured more than $500 million in loans from HPS Investment Partners (the $179 billion private-credit platform recently acquired by BlackRock) along with co-financing from BNP Paribas.

His collateral? Entirely fabricated phone bills from non-existent clients. The scam unraveled when an HPS analyst noticed an email from “@bics-telecom.com” instead of “@bics.com.”

That small typo triggered an audit, which soon revealed that every invoice, contract, and client confirmation on file had been forged. By the time investigators showed up, Brahmbhatt’s New York office was shuttered, his phone disconnected, and his driveway lined with Teslas, Porsches, and BMWs. He has since disappeared.

According to court filings, Brahmbhatt allegedly invented entire customers, built fake email domains to impersonate them, and issued millions in phony invoices, which he then pledged as collateral.

Investigators later traced missing funds to offshore accounts in India and Mauritius. His companies, along with two affiliated financing entities, have since filed for bankruptcy protection.

BNP Paribas booked a $220 million loss provision tied to the fraud, while HPS told investors its exposure was “immaterial” relative to its total book. Still, the optics aren’t great: one of the world’s most sophisticated asset managers got burned by doctored PDFs and fake email domains.

Takeaway: With the First Brands and Tricolor collapses still fresh, the private-credit boom is starting to show cracks. In a market racing to deploy trillions into opaque, lightly regulated loans, even the best risk models can miss a forged invoice. Or as Jamie Dimon might put it once you see one cockroach, you can bet there are more hiding in the dark.

PRESENTED BY VANTA

Vanta Automates Compliance, So You Can Focus on Growth

For high-growth fintechs, security and compliance aren’t optional, but managing SOC 2 workflows, ISO 27001, and other frameworks can take months of manual effort.

Vanta offers fintechs automated, continuous compliance, letting you keep up with increasing regulatory requirements and still focus on scaling your company.

Ramp, a Vanta customer, recently secured $500 million in funding at a $22.5 billion valuation. Vanta itself closed a Series D at a $4.15 billion valuation, proof that the platform delivers results for fast-growing teams.

Learn more about how Ramp keeps its global financial operations platform compliant and stays focused on growth with Vanta.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• JPMorgan’s top European banker predicts a major M&A rebound in 2026 (BB)

• Government shutdown stalls SEC work on allowing private equity and credit in 401(k) plans (BB)

• UBS moves closer to historic relocation out of Switzerland, wooed by Trump admin (NYP)

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang completes $1B share sale (BB)

• KPMG staff will be rated on AI usage in annual performance reviews (BB)

• AI will reinforce the worst trends in toxic bosses (BB)

• Marathon times are a status symbol for Wall Street’s elite (BB)

• Private-equity’s “Dr Pepper coffee deal” once loathed now looks like a big win for Apollo and KKR (BB)

• Thoma Bravo eyes $1 billion payout from Ping Identity debt recapitalization (BB)

• JPMorgan Asset Management forecasts a long-bond revival as supply pressures ease (BB)

• Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol rules out a value menu, leaves door open to price hikes (CBS)

• Treasury sets new I-Bond rate of 4.03% through April 2026 (CNBC)

• Gold slips on rate cut uncertainty as stronger U.S. dollar tempers gains (CNBC)

• Can Paul Atkins make IPOs great again? (NYT)

• Billionaires step in to help plug food aid gaps during shutdown (BB)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Stocks closed higher on Halloween, led by the technology-heavy Nasdaq, which out-paced the S&P 500 and Dow.

• Amazon and Apple both beat expectations, fueling strength in large-cap tech and supporting broader gains.

• Bond yields edged up, with the 10-year Treasury near 4.09%, as markets reconsider how fast the Federal Reserve might cut rates.

• S&P 500 earnings outlook remains solid, tracking ~10% year-over-year growth for Q3.

• A decade of gains: The current bull market anniversary adds context — strong performance but not unprecedented historically.

Economic Data Highlights

• Earnings season momentum continues, with ~63% of S&P 500 companies reported and Q3 earnings growth holding near 10%.

• Technology and AI sectors remain the primary drivers of earnings growth, contributing more than half of the year-to-date gains.

• Valuations are elevated and may already reflect much of the near-term earnings growth; broader sector participation in 2026 is key.

• Bull market history suggests that age alone doesn’t dictate the end — recessions or Fed tightening do, neither of which we view as imminent in 2026.

Earnings Today

• fuboTV (FUBO) – Watch for streaming-subscriber growth trends and monetization ramp-up.

• ON Semiconductor (ON) – Focus on automotive chip demand, AI-inference growth and capacity-expansion commentary.

• Palantir Technologies (PLTR) – Key metrics: enterprise-AI contract momentum, government-seg­ment wins and margin outlook.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Amazon Group ($AMZN) +10% after AWS-powered strong Q3 results, strong spending guidance.

• (+) Reddit ($RDDT) +7% because of an earnings beat, strong forecast.

• (–) Carlyle Group ($CG) -6% after private equity sales slumped.

Prediction Markets

• AI is currently 2x more likely to win Person of the Year than a person.

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Boyd Group Services agreed to buy Joe Hudson’s Collision Center for $1.3 billion

• Fresnillo agreed to buy Probe Gold for $500 million

• Palomar agreed to acquire The Gray Casualty & Surety Co. for $300 million

• Harvey, a legal AI startup, raised $150 million

• Human Interest, a 401(k) platform, raised $100 million

• Arbor Energy, a power and carbon removal startup, raised $55 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Notes on Being a Man

Description: In this deeply personal and sharply observed work, Galloway explores what it means to be a man today—from his own turbulent past to broader crises facing boys and men in modern society. He addresses loneliness, friendship, mental health, ambition, identity, fatherhood, and the urgent need for healthy masculinity.

Book Length: 304 pages
Release Date: November 4, 2025

Ideal For: Men, fathers, young adults, mentors, coaches, and anyone interested in the evolving role of masculinity and how we can build stronger lives and relationships.

“Life isn’t about what happens to you — it’s about how you respond to it.”

DAILY VISUAL

Flashing Red

PRESENTED BY DEEL

The Data Behind Today’s Compensation Decisions

AI specialists now earn 20–25% premiums above base compensation, and the 90th percentile is climbing faster as startups compete for machine learning talent. Meanwhile, equity grants for engineers have expanded globally every year since 2021.

Deel and Carta's second annual compensation report covers 1 million+ contracts from 35,000+ companies across 150+ countries. The data reveals how companies are navigating inflation through one-time bonuses instead of permanent raises, why contractor hiring is booming in Latin America, and where gender pay gaps remain stubborn in tech roles.

For investors tracking burn rates or finance teams benchmarking comp packages, the report provides actionable data on global hiring costs and equity allocation trends.

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DAILY ACUMEN

Reputation Lag

Your reputation moves slower than your reality.

You can change your habits overnight, but people still see your old version for months.

That lag frustrates most achievers.

But it’s also proof that reputation compounds, not fluctuates.

Don’t waste energy convincing others of your evolution.

Keep stacking actions until your results become undeniable.

The market always corrects to fair value, it just takes time.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• How to handle bad chemistry in a job interview

• What most CEOs get wrong

• 25 things I’ve learned about adulting

• 11 of the best pizzerias in NYC

• AIG’s CEO on leadership lessons learned 

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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