Good morning! The Big Ten is in talks for a $2 billion private capital deal that could reshape college sports. JPMorgan is tightening security at its new $3 billion Park Avenue HQ, making biometric scans mandatory for most employees.

Microsoft and Anthropic just hired former UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as an adviser. Gen Z’s swapping cocktails for cold plunges as wellness becomes the new nightlife. And Citi expects up to $20 billion in India IPOs over the next year.

Plus: Citi says buy the Oracle dip (sees ~40% upside) and the finance nerd who might be college football’s next breakout quarterback.

If compliance and risk are not your two favorite words, learn how Vanta can automate that process by up to 90%.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Another TACO Trade?

Markets have been unusually calm over the past six months, steadily grinding higher and notching record after record. But on Friday morning, President Trump logged onto Truth Social and wiped out $2 trillion in market value, all with a single post.

At 10:57 a.m., he declared China “very hostile” and floated a “massive increase in tariffs.” One sentence later, the S&P 500 plunged 2.7%, the Nasdaq 3.5%, and roughly $2 trillion in value disappeared. Nvidia dropped 5%, AMD 8%, and Apple and Tesla also joined the selloff.

After hours, Trump doubled down, threatening “100% tariffs” and new export controls on AI software.

By nightfall, traders were already positioning for round two, buy the dip and hope he tweets a truce before the APEC summit.

China didn’t wait long to respond. Its Commerce Ministry accused Washington of “double standards,” defended its rare-earth export curbs as “legitimate,” and warned that it was “ready to take corresponding measures.” The statement ended with a familiar line: “We do not want a trade war, but we are not afraid of one.”

By Sunday morning, Beijing had reframed its restrictions as a defensive response to U.S. chip-export loophole crackdowns. Trump, meanwhile, was already walking things back:

“Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!” he posted on Truth Social. “Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment… The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”

We’ve seen this movie before. The TACO Trade, Trump Always Chickens Out. The pattern is simple: Trump threatens tariffs → markets panic → he walks it back → stocks rip to new highs → everyone calls it “negotiation tactics.”

This latest episode checked every box: outrage → panic → reversal → rally. And markets are already betting he’ll soften his stance again before sitting down with Xi at APEC.

Takeaway: If history is any guide, markets have seen this before. April’s tariff scare triggered a sharp selloff before talks resumed and equities rebounded. The cycle of threats, corrections, and recoveries continues to define U.S.–China trade relations. In other words, tariffs are temporary, but volatility is forever.

PRESENTED BY VANTA

Manage Third-Party Risk Proactively and Automatically

A robust vendor management program isn’t just required by compliance frameworks like SOC 2 and ISO 27001, it’s also a critical part of a holistic trust management strategy for fintechs.

Implementing a vendor management program, however, has become more complex and challenging with the proliferation of SaaS tools and shadow IT. And many overstretched security teams are being asked to do more with less.

Vanta offers fintechs a single platform to manage growing vendor risk; meaning faster, more efficient security reviews at every stage.

Download this guide to learn:

• Insights from other leaders on how to proactively manage third-party vendor risk

• Tips on dealing with challenges like limited resources and repetitive manual processes

• How security teams can enable the business to move quickly instead of being inadvertent gatekeepers

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Big Ten closes private-equity investment deal, sources say (ESPN)

• Billionaire Peter Thiel giving private “Antichrist lectures” (Guardian)

• Microsoft and Anthropic hire former UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (WSJ)

• Wellness is the new nightlife as Gen Z swaps cocktails for cold plunges (BB)

• Citigroup expects up to $20B in India IPOs over the next year (BB)

• Podcast: Did Wall Street just admit it’s a casino after all? (BB)

• The finance nerd who might be college football’s next great quarterback (WSJ)

• Billionaire behind Blackstone’s data-center empire readies next act (BB)

• Morgan Stanley drops crypto-fund restrictions for wealth clients (CNBC)

• JPMorgan staff told to share biometric data to access new HQ (Guardian)

• Mark Cuban-backed subprime-card startup raises $50M (BB)

• U.S. jobless claims rise to 235,000, Goldman sees labor cooling (BB)

• First Brands implosion sends lenders scrambling to contain fallout (CNBC)

• Citi says buy the dip in Oracle, sees 40% upside (CNBC)

• BASF to sell majority stake in coatings unit to Carlyle for $6.7B (WSJ)

• Bosses are cutting costs just not the private jets (WSJ)

• UK investment platform warns retail traders to steer clear of Bitcoin (CNBC)

• The other AI tech stock rally is in China (Axios)

• Shaq, Sam Altman-backed college startup taps former Meta AI head as CTO (CNBC)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Markets closed lower as renewed trade tensions weighed on sentiment.

• President Trump signaled potential tariff hikes on China, following China’s new export controls on rare-earth minerals.

• Technology and consumer discretionary stocks led declines, while consumer staples outperformed.

• Bond yields fell, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.06%, and the U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies.

• WTI oil traded near five-month lows, as a ceasefire in Gaza reduced supply risks and trade tensions raised concerns about global growth.

Economic Data Highlights

• Earnings season kicks off next week, led by major banks.

• S&P 500 earnings expected to rise ~8% year-over-year, with seven of 11 sectors forecast to report gains.

• Technology companies are likely to lead growth, followed by utilities and materials.

• Broader earnings strength could drive more balanced market performance and support diversification.

• With valuations elevated, earnings growth will be key to sustaining further market upside.

Earnings Today

• Fastenal (FAST) – Focus on construction and industrial demand trends.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Protaganist Therapeutics ($PTGX) 30% after acquisition talks with Johnson & Johnson.

• (–) DraftKings ($DKNG) -7% after prediction markets startup Kalshi raised $300M at a $5B valuation.

• (–) Levi Strauss ($LEVI) -13% after the jeans maker warned of potential tariff impact.

Prediction Markets

• To cut or not to cut in October

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Reflection AI, an open-source AI model startup, raised $2 billion

• Bristol Myers Squibb agreed to acquire Orbital Therapeutics for $1.5 billion

• Stoke Space Technologies, a reusable rocket maker, raised $510 million

• Kalshi, a prediction markets platform, raised $300 million

• Arthrosi Therapeutics, a gout treatment company, raised $153 million

• Duos, a senior benefits company, raised $130 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH

Real Estate Digest

Need help with real estate? Our official partner, Nest Seekers International, can help you buy, sell, rent, or invest, anywhere in the world. Get in touch here.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined again this week, settling at its lowest level of the year after several weeks of easing. Home purchase activity continues to rise, and with multiple Fed governors signaling the potential for two more rate cuts before year-end, buyer sentiment is expected to strengthen further.

Latest News

• Is The Buyers Strike Finally Paying Off?

• A Wave of New Apartment Buildings Is Set To Take Over Midtown

• Conversion Mania Grips NYC Office Buildings

• Investors Are Making Up the Highest Share of Homebuyers in Five Years

New Listings

• 200 Caravelle Dr Dillon, CO: 5 Bed / 5.5 Bath – $3.6M

• 522 West 29th Street Apt: 5B New York, NY: 3 Bed /  3.5 Bath - $5.9M

• 177 SE 25th Rd Miami, FL: 3 Bed /  3.5 Bath - $3.9M

• 335 West 38th Street Apt. 3 New York, NY: 3 Bed / 3 Bath - $3.9M  

• 245 E 53rd St Apt: 2 New York, NY: 2 Bed / 2 Bath – $2.0M

BOOK OF THE DAY

1929

Description:
A gripping narrative that brings to life the build-up, burst, and fallout of the 1929 stock market crash. Sorkin examines the euphoria of speculation, the private deals and public pressures behind the scenes, and how greed, hubris, and flawed systems combined to shatter confidence. Beyond the headlines, he reveals the personalities, unheeded warnings, and policy battles that shaped the crisis—and how echoes of that era still ripple through today’s markets.

Book Length: 400 pages
Release Date: October 14, 2025

Ideal For:
History buffs, financial professionals, investors, and anyone curious about how financial bubbles form—and what happens when they burst.

“In 1929, the world watched in shock as the unstoppable Wall Street bull market went into freefall… but behind the panic, another drama unfolded—one of hubris, oversight, and inevitable undoing.”

DAILY VISUAL

No Juice Left in Public Fixed Income

~90% of all public fixed income outstanding in the world trades at a yield below 5%, with inflation at 3%, the real return for investors in public fixed income is a 2% or less.

PRESENTED BY DEEL

How Top Global Companies Structure Payroll Across Borders

Hiring across countries is easy. Paying compliantly? Not so much.

This guide from Deel breaks down the 3 most common global payroll models (decentralized, centralized, and BPO) with real-world examples, pros and cons, and what to consider when scaling.

Whether you're building an international team or optimizing an existing structure, this is a must-read for finance leaders, HR, and operations teams navigating cross-border compliance.

Find out which model fits your global team best and how to avoid the common pitfalls.

DAILY ACUMEN

Psychology of Timing

Success is rarely about doing more.

It is about doing the right thing at the right time.

The best traders and founders both learn that timing is the invisible multiplier of effort.

You can work hard in a bad cycle and get crushed, or work moderately in a good one and look like a genius.

The key is staying patient enough to act when odds tilt in your favor.

Life has its own version of market timing.

Friendships, careers, opportunities—they all move in cycles.

You cannot force a season that has not arrived, but you can stay ready for when it does.

Preparation without impatience is the art.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• How to break free from a past identity

• What to do when you don’t feel like doing anything

• 10 artificial plants that look so real you’ll do a double-take

• How running shoes are getting even smarter

• 11 phrases to help you gain influence and avoid awkwardness 

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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