Short Squeez
Posts
🍋 AI Gold Rush Meets Reality

🍋 AI Gold Rush Meets Reality

Plus: Teen prodigy leaving SpaceX to join Citadel, new Target CEO started out as an intern 22 years ago, Hertz will sell used cars on Amazon, and HF investors pushing back on fees.

Short Squeez
August 21, 2025

Together With

"Finance is an industry where nothing ever stays the same." — Steve Schwarzman

Good Morning! A teen prodigy is leaving SpaceX to join Ken Griffin’s Citadel Securities, while Target’s new CEO is turning heads for starting out as a finance intern 22 years ago. At Citi, the bank has tapped Paul Weiss to investigate HR complaints against wealth chief Andy Sieg.

Goldman is predicting a multi-trillion-dollar stablecoin gold rush, Hertz will sell used cars on Amazon, Trump called on Fed Governor Lisa Cook to resign over mortgage fraud allegations, and PE stocks are still struggling even after breaking into 401(k)s.

Plus: The 9-to-5 is morphing into an “infinite workday,” retail superfans are fueling IPO day-one pops, and hedge fund investors are pushing back on sky-high fees.

Don’t let your data fall into the wrong hands. DeleteMe hunts down your personal data and scrubs it from hundreds of sites. Sign up now and get 20% off.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

AI Gold Rush Meets Reality

After months of gains, the AI rally stumbled this week amid a tech selloff and growing skepticism over valuations.

Meta fell 5% after reports of a major reorg in its AI division, including a hiring freeze, team restructuring, and departures of key researchers.

Meta had previously lured talent with compensation packages as high as $100 million and even a $1.5 billion offer for one researcher. The pullback, Meta’s worst two-day drop since April, has heightened fears that AI spending from Big Tech could slow.

Nvidia also slipped from record highs, while Palantir dropped more than 16% from its post-earnings peak.

A new MIT study added fuel to profit-taking, finding that 95% of companies investing in generative AI report no returns despite $35–40 billion in spending.

OpenAI’s Sam Altman admitted AI may already be in a bubble, warning that “someone is going to lose a phenomenal amount of money.”

Apollo’s Torsten Sløk went further, saying the current AI bubble could be worse than the dot-com crash.

This isn’t the first bout of volatility in 2025. In January, China’s DeepSeek released a rival model to ChatGPT at a fraction of the cost, sparking a $1 trillion rout in AI-linked equities before stocks like Nvidia rebounded to new highs.

While investors are generally bullish, others are warning that hype may be outpacing reality. Ray Dalio and Joe Tsai caution that AI spending could exceed sustainable growth. Wedbush’s Dan Ives counters that AI’s use cases are only beginning to expand, led by Nvidia and Jensen Huang.

Takeaway: While volatility in the AI gold rush is expected, even a slight correction could erase trillions of dollars worth of value. Big Tech will keep pouring billions into AI, and while the conventional wisdom is to remain bullish on AI over the next five to ten years, this week’s pullback shows that sometimes it’s important to check the hype.

HEADLINES

Is Your Data Being Sold On The Internet?

Every click, search, or signup can expose you, and data brokers are cashing in–selling your address, email, and phone number, to… well, who the hell knows.

Fight back with DeleteMe.

Their privacy pros scour the internet, scrubbing your data from hundreds of data broker sites. Then, you get a briefing on what was found and where.

(In other words, you’ll sleep like a baby knowing your private data is actually private.)

Oh, and it’s not just once. DeleteMe monitors for your data around the clock.

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

U.S. equities closed lower, with retail earnings in focus; energy and consumer staples outperformed, while consumer discretionary and tech lagged.
10-year Treasury yields fell to 4.29%, extending recent bond strength.
Asia ended mostly higher, with the PBOC holding its loan prime rate at 3.0%.
Euro area inflation steady at 2.0%, matching ECB’s target, supported European equities.
The dollar weakened against peers; WTI oil rose after API reported lower U.S. crude inventories.

Economic Data Highlights

Harmonized Euro area CPI held at 2.0% in July, consistent with ECB’s inflation target.
Canada’s softer inflation earlier this week continued to fuel expectations of a possible September BoC rate cut.
U.S. macro calendar stays quiet until Thursday’s Flash PMI surveys.

Reported Earnings

Target (TGT) – Q2 earnings slightly above estimates; consumer spending held up better than feared, offsetting housing-related weakness.
Lowe’s (LOW) – Results topped expectations, showing steadier demand than Home Depot despite lingering headwinds in large-scale home improvement.
Baidu (BIDU) – Revenue beat supported by ad recovery; investors focused on AI cloud momentum and broader macro conditions in China.

Earnings Today

Walmart (WMT) – Consumer spending bellwether and tariff impact indicator.
Intuit (INTU) – Key focus on small business health, tax software, and AI adoption.
Zoom (ZM) – Monitoring enterprise traction and AI-enhanced collaboration tools.

Movers & Shakers

(+) Dayforce ($DAY) +3% after reports Thoma Bravo is circling in on a buyout for the HR software firm.
(–) Estée Lauder ($EL) -4% after the retailer warned tariffs will cost the company $100 million.
(–) La-Z-Boy ($LZB) -12% after the retailer warned of lower sales and foot traffic.

Private Dealmaking

Guess agrees to go private for $1.4 billion
Group14, a silicon battery materials manufacturer, raised $463 million
FieldAI, a developer of “brains” for robots, raised $405 million
EliseAI, a chatbot developer for housing and health care, raised $250 million
Overhaul, a supply chain risk-management company, raised $105 million
Aalo Atomics, a modular nuclear plant developer for data centers, raised $100 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

KLIM

Description:
A stirring and candid memoir from Olympic gold-medalist Michael Klim. From his early life escaping behind the Iron Curtain, to becoming an Australian swimming legend at the 2000 Sydney Games, and his courageous battle with a rare autoimmune disease—this memoir is both an inspiring sports story and a testament to resilience. Klim shares triumph, struggle, and transformation in a voice that's as honest as it is powerful.

Rating:
Amazon 4.7 / 5
Goodreads 4.3 / 5

Book Length: 288 pages

Ideal For: Sports fans, memoir enthusiasts, and anyone inspired by personal reinvention, endurance, and the journey beyond fame.

“Michael Klim’s finest moment isn’t Olympic glory—it’s the courage he summoned to share himself so honestly.” — Rich Roll

DAILY VISUAL

Americans Staying Put

Source: Chartr

PRESENTED BY MACABACUS

Turn Messy Models Into Client-Ready Decks

TL;DR: Financial modeling errors and sloppy slides tank credibility. Macabacus gives banking & finance firms an enterprise-grade productivity tool to deliver error-free models & decks with confidence and speed.

Why It Matters

Missed links and hard codes = delays, rework, and awkward client moments.
Formula errors = inaccurate models, incorrect decisions.
A tight workflow = tighter timelines and a safer reputation.

What You Get

Excel → PowerPoint linking: Seamlessly & reliably update tables, charts, and text as your models change.
Model Check + Tracing Tools: Surface hard codes, broken/circular refs, and bad links before they hit leadership or clients.
Deck Check: Enforce brand standards automatically (fonts, layouts, logos) across every slide.
AI Writing Assistant: Turn analysis into slide narratives that align with your brand guidelines and tone-of-voice.
Shared Libraries & Templates: Access firm-approved slides, templates, and a logo library for consistent, on-brand deliverables.

The Outcome
Ship error-free, client-ready work and spend your time on high-value analysis instead of clean-up.

Who’s Using It
80,000+ finance and banking professionals.

DAILY ACUMEN

Survivorship

Wall Street loves the winners—the FAANGs, the unicorns, the few who became legends.

But behind every Amazon are a hundred Pets.coms.

Behind every hedge fund titan are dozens who quietly folded.

The lesson isn’t cynicism; it’s humility.

Success isn’t just brilliance—it’s surviving long enough for variance to swing your way.

In poker, the best players aren’t the flashiest; they’re the ones who avoid ruin and keep buying into the next game.

Life demands the same.

Your career, your portfolio, your health—each needs risk management not just for upside, but for endurance.

Burnout is a margin call on your body.

Debt is a margin call on your time.

Reputational blowups are a margin call on your relationships.

Survivorship bias tricks us into thinking only the boldest bets matter.

In truth, it’s the ability to keep playing that wins.

Build your downside defenses first.

Fortune eventually visits the persistent.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

How to jump from middle management to the C-suite
1 foolproof productivity booster, backed by psychology
How to be the leader everyone actually trusts
The link between community and true happiness
Why “dopamine smiling” might be your new secret weapon

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

📣 Partner With Us: Get in front of an audience of over 1 million finance professionals, business leaders, and policy influencers. Submit a partnership inquiry.

📈 Grow With Us: Work directly with the Overheard on Wall Street team to scale your finance brand. Schedule your free consult.

🔒 Short Squeez Premium – Insiders: Access exclusive content, including investment analysis, wellness features, career tools, and our full recruiting resource library. Upgrade to Premium.

🧢 Wall Street Shop: Explore our collection of finance-themed apparel and merchandise. Visit the shop.

📬 Deals Newsletter – Buysiders: A curated roundup of major M&A, private equity, and VC activity. Plus access to private deal flow. Subscribe here.

🏠 Real Estate Newsletter – City Squeez: Latest news and exclusive listings for those looking to buy, rent, or invest in real estate around the world. Sign up here.

📚 Courses: Level up with our excel, modeling, and private equity courses. View offerings.

What'd you think of today's edition?

Reply

or to participate.