Good Morning! The U.S. trade deficit fell to its lowest level since 2009 after Trump’s tariff push. Glencore and Rio Tinto are again discussing a merger that would create a $260B mining giant. Defense stocks jumped after Trump called for a $1.5T military budget in 2027.

The Trump admin is considering payments of up to $100K for each of Greenland’s ~56K residents (total cost $5.6B), amid renewed takeover talks. DoorDash and Uber Eats responded to an AI hoax on X. Hedge funds are booming as investor enthusiasm for private equity cools.

Plus: Mega PE firms are capturing their largest share of fundraising in a decade, Soho House’s $2.7B take-private deal hit a late snag, and studies show most people regain weight within two years of stopping GLP-1 drugs.

Building in a dividend recap? Let Mosaic do it for you.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

World’s Most Positive Hedge Fund

Investigative journalism has traditionally fueled short sellers. Hunterbrook Capital is betting the relationship works just as well on the long side.

Launched in 2024, Hunterbrook combines an investigative newsroom with a hedge fund, trading on original reporting from its in-house publication, Hunterbrook Media.

The firm initially focused on exposés and short selling, but in 2025 discovered that positive reporting could be just as profitable. Hunterbrook gained 23% after fees in the first nine months of 2025, outperforming hedge fund benchmarks and the S&P 500.

One example was Joby Aviation. A Hunterbrook reporter discovered unexplained test flights in public logs and then confirmed expanded aircraft activity on the ground, which meant Joby’s manufacturing and testing were further along than investors realized.

After compliance signoff, the hedge fund went long ahead of publication, betting the story would trigger a positive re-rating and short squeeze. When the reporting went live, the stock rallied and Hunterbrook locked in gains.

The structure is tightly controlled. Hunterbrook’s compliance team vets every piece of reporting to ensure it relies only on public records, physical observation, and document analysis, not insider tips or material nonpublic information.

Once cleared, the hedge fund is allowed to trade on those conclusions even before an article is published. In practice, it is the same kind of investigative research Wall Street has always used, just formalized inside a newsroom.

Hunterbrook was founded two years ago by Nathaniel Horwitz and Sam Koppelman. Neither came from a traditional hedge fund track, but the firm raised $100 million from veteran investors, including Marc Lasry.

After a weak first quarter in 2025, Hunterbrook adjusted its approach by holding long positions longer and dialing back rapid-fire short trades.

Short selling is still part of the toolkit. The fund deployed more than $120 million through a special purpose vehicle betting against Dexcom ahead of a Hunterbrook Media investigation into product accuracy, and the stock fell 11% the day after publication.

Takeaway: Investigative hedge fund journalism used to mean one thing: a short seller dropping a bomb. But in the same year that famous skeptics like Michael Burry and Hindenburg closed down shop, Hunterbrook discovered that journalism can not only be used to expose what’s broken, but also finding what is actually working.

PRESENTED BY MOSAIC

M&A Word of the Day: Dividend Recapitalizations

In a world where exits are becoming more challenging, more and more sponsors are turning to dividend recaps to improve returns while waiting for equity markets and M&A to pick up.

Dividend recaps allow a sponsor to raise additional debt at the portfolio company and use some (or all) of those proceeds to pay a cash dividend to the Sponsor. This improves IRR as it brings the returns forward due to the time value of money.

Additionally, this de-risks the investments as there is a benefit to taking some money off the table early.

Mosaic’s modeling tool can help build dividend recaps seamlessly into your operating models to assess if you could benefit from a dividend recap while markets pick back up.

Book a demo today.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Trump admin reportedly considers paying each Greenland resident up to $100K amid US takeover talks (Fox)

• Greenland? Who else could USA acquire (Buysiders)

• Trade deficit in October hits smallest since 2009 after Trump's tariff moves (CNBC)

• Glencore and Rio Tinto in talks for mining mega-merger (Axios)

• Defense stocks surge after Trump calls for $1.5 trillion military budget in 2027 (CNBC)

• Hedge funds boom as investor enthusiasm for private equity falters (FT)

• Push to audit private equity and venture capital falters under Trump (NYT)

• CrowdStrike buys identity security startup SGNL for $740 million (CNBC)

• Top private equity groups capture largest fundraising share in a decade (FT)

• Soho House’s $2.7 billion deal to go private hits a last-minute funding snag (WSJ)

• How private equity is learning to love AI (TI)

• Apollo co-founder Josh Harris leads $1bn fundraising at Bruin Capital (FT)

• OpenAI makes healthcare push with new ChatGPT feature (CNBC)

• DoorDash and Uber Eats respond to AI hoax (Axios)

• The Apple Card headache for Goldman Sachs is almost over (YF)

• Family office deals cooled off in December, but heirs placed bets in health and media (CNBC)

• Many people who come off GLP-1 drugs regain weight within two years (CNN)

• KKR to book 4.5 times return on OneStream via latest buyout (BB)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. equities edged higher, with gains in energy and consumer staples offsetting weakness in technology

• Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year ending near 4.18%

• Asian markets finished lower amid elevated geopolitical tensions

• The U.S. dollar strengthened against major peers

• WTI crude rebounded following its recent pullback

Economic Data Highlights

• Initial jobless claims rose to 208K, in line with expectations and up modestly from 200K

• Continuing claims increased to 1.91M, slightly above the expected 1.87M

• Unemployment remains elevated at 4.6%, while job openings fell to 7.1M, below unemployment of 7.8M

• Markets await the December employment report, expecting ~55K jobs added and unemployment to tick down to 4.5%

Sector Trends

• Energy and consumer staples led the market

• Technology saw a modest pullback after recent outperformances

• Rising geopolitical tension weighed on Asia, but U.S. markets held steady

Looking Ahead

• Productivity gains remain a positive macro signal: nonfarm productivity +4.9% annualized, the strongest in two years

• Hourly compensation +2.9% YoY, outpacing CPI inflation (~2.7%), supporting real wage gains

• Unit labor costs –1.9%, well below expectations, suggesting easing cost pressures

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Bloom Energy ($BE) +10% after AEP signed a $2.65B fuel deal with the renewable energy company.

• (+) Applied Digital ($APLD) +8% because the AI workload provider tripled revenue; greater than expected 

• (–) Alcoa ($AA) -3% after JPMorgan downgraded the aluminum producer

Prediction Markets

• The market is dead-even. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Lilly acquired Ventyx Biosciences, a biotech developing treatments for inflammatory and autoimmune diseases, for $1.2 billion

• CrowdStrike will buy identity security startup SGNL for $740 million 

• Cyera, a data security company focused on data exposure management, raised $400 million

• Parabilis Medicines, an oncology biotech developing small-molecule cancer therapies, raised $305 million

• Alveus Therapeutics, an obesity drug developer, raised nearly $160 million

• Diagonal Therapeutics, a biotech developing clustering antibodies for rare genetic diseases, raised $125 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Fortune’s Formula

Description: A riveting history of the Kelly criterion, the mathematical formula that revolutionized gambling, investing, and modern risk management. Poundstone weaves together the stories of Claude Shannon, John Kelly, mob bookies, card counters, and Wall Street quants to show how a single idea about optimal betting reshaped everything from blackjack strategies to hedge-fund decision-making. This expanded 20th-anniversary edition adds new material and fresh context to a timeless exploration of probability, edge, and survival.

Book Length: 480 pages
Release Date: December 9, 2025

Ideal For: Investors, gamblers, quants, and anyone fascinated by the intersection of math, money, and decision-making.

“Kelly teaches one truth: bet small when you’re unsure, bet big when you have an edge, and never bet the farm.”

DAILY VISUAL

Average Monthly Mortgage Payment is $2,665

PRESENTED BY STELRIX

The Financial Tool Family Offices Have Used for Decades, Now Available to You

Wealth doesn't liquidate to cover expenses. It borrows against itself.

Family offices and private banking clients have accessed capital this way for generations, using their portfolios as collateral while keeping investments intact and compounding. Traditional securities-backed lines require $100,000 minimums and weeks of underwriting, keeping this approach exclusive to institutional relationships.

Stelrix built that same infrastructure into a sleek gold card that connects directly to your existing brokerage. Your holdings stay exactly where they are, generating returns while you access spending power in real time. Limits adjust automatically based on your portfolio value, and pricing reflects actual risk rather than arbitrary credit scoring.

Manufactured by the team behind the Black Amex Centurion, the card itself signals a different approach to wealth management. Your investments continue working while you maintain flexibility for opportunities that don't wait for liquidation timelines. What you get is simple: capital access without triggering taxable events or disrupting your allocation strategy.

Join the elite. Reserve your gold card today.

DAILY ACUMEN

Choice & Commitment

Barry Schwartz conducted a study where job seekers were divided into two groups.

"Maximizers" exhaustively researched every option seeking the perfect job. "Satisficers" found something good enough and committed.

Years later, maximizers had better jobs by objective measures, higher salaries, more prestigious companies. But they were less happy, less satisfied, and more regretful.

Why? Because they never stopped wondering if something better existed.

The marriage researcher John Gottman found the same pattern: couples who viewed commitment as a choice to make once (not continuously) were significantly happier.

The modern world tells us to keep our options open, but open options drain happiness.

Every Tinder swipe is an implicit statement: "Maybe someone better exists." Every job application sent while employed says: "Maybe this isn't right."

Commitment isn't settling, it's deciding. It's closing doors so you can fully walk through the one you've chosen.

What are you half-committed to that deserves your full commitment? What doors could you close to fully open others? Remember, the grass isn't greener on the other side. It's greener where you water it.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• How seeing your day on a time sheet boosts productivity

• The best treadmills 

• How to improve your grip strength

• 9 signs you’re the type of person others quietly admire from a distance

• People won’t take you seriously if you use 9 phrases

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

📣 Partner With Us: Get in front of an audience of over 1 million finance professionals, business leaders, and policy influencers. Submit a partnership inquiry.

📈 Grow With Us: Work directly with the Overheard on Wall Street team to scale your finance brand. Schedule your free consult.

🔒 Short Squeez Premium – Insiders: Access exclusive content, including investment analysis, wellness features, career tools, and our full recruiting resource library. Upgrade to Premium. 

🧢 Wall Street Shop: Explore our collection of finance-themed apparel and merchandise. Visit the shop.

📬 Deals Newsletter – Buysiders: A curated roundup of major M&A, private equity, and VC activity. Plus access to private deal flow. Subscribe here.