Good morning! The Fed cut rates for the second time this year by 25 bps, but stocks fell after Powell’s comments cast doubt on another cut in December. Nvidia became the world’s first $5 trillion company as AI hype and a wave of new deals sent shares soaring nearly 15% this week.

Morgan Stanley made its first acquisition under new CEO Ted Pick, buying secondary-market platform EquityZen. Meta dropped 8% despite an earnings beat due to a one-time tax hit, Chipotle plunged 13% after lowering its sales outlook, and Fiserv cratered 44% (its worst day ever) after slashing guidance.

Plus: Wealthy investors are using options math to borrow on the cheap, PE firms are turning on Kirkland & Ellis, and one trader bet $21 million on a 30% S&P 500 rally in 2026.

PE associates, you can now email your CIM to [email protected] and receive a bid-ready LBO model in under 5 minutes. Book a demo here.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Wall Street’s New Favorite Chain

PopUp Bagels isn’t just West Village’s longest breakfast line; it’s also winning over Wall Street as its favorite new chain. The bagel shop known for its TikTok hype has quietly built a lucrative business model that most bagel chains would kill for. 

Now backed by Stripes (the same growth firm behind Erewhon, Levain Bakery, and On Running) PopUp is valued at roughly $60 million and already profitable. With franchise agreements signed across more than half the U.S., the company plans to open 300 stores within four years, leveraging a capital-light model with $300K–$900K build costs, 6% royalties, and daily dough deliveries from regional hubs.

Bagels are typically low-margin and labor-intensive, but PopUp appears to have cracked the code. Founded in a Connecticut backyard during the pandemic, it reinvented the New York bagel: smaller, lighter, and always served hot by the batch.

The minimum order is three ($13–$14 per bag), so a single location moving 500 orders a day can generate $2.5–$3 million in annual revenue with enviable unit economics.

The result: a chain printing money in a low-margin category. For investors, PopUp checks every post-pandemic box: low fixed costs, high throughput, viral brand appeal, and emotional stickiness.

The risk, of course, is scale. The magic of a New York bagel tends to vanish once it leaves the five boroughs. PopUp’s answer: keep control of the supply chain, limit SKUs, and ship dough daily from regional centers. The question is whether the magic holds when “New York water” doesn’t.

Takeaway: PopUp has achieved what few food concepts ever manage: profitability, scalability, and cultural relevance, all before reaching 20 locations. It’s turned one of the cheapest foods around into an recurring revenue stream. Only time will tell if it can reach the heights of Shake Shack, but it’s well on its way.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Nvidia becomes first $5T company (Axios)

• Fiserv’s “impossible to sugarcoat” forecast cut shocks analysts (BB)

• Fed cuts rates by 0.25% for a second straight meeting; two officials dissent (YF)

• Morgan Stanley buys EquityZen, first deal under CEO Ted Pick (BB)

• Meta shares drop 8% despite earnings beat for one-time tax charge (CNBC)

• Chipotle stock plunges 13% as chain lowers sales forecast (CNBC)

• Alphabet tops Q3 on revenue and profit; shares rise (YF)

• How affluent investors are using options math to borrow on the cheap (BB)

• The private equity revolt to fire Kirkland (FT)

• Trader bets $21M on a 30% S&P 500 rally by December 2026 (BB)

• UBS says strategic investments are paying off as Q3 profit surges 74% (CNBC)

• Paramount to lay off ~2,000 following Skydance merger (Axios)

• JPMorgan’s shifts top dealmaker to lead $1.5 trillion national security investment effort (BB)

• Microsoft hit with major Azure and 365 outage ahead of earnings (CNBC)

• Ray Dalio says AI market bubble is forming, but won't pop until the Fed tightens (CNBC)

• Bidding war frenzy hit CT homes as NYC buyers flee amid Mamdani win (NYP)

• Ray Dalio, JPMorgan back billion-dollar berry farmer Fruitist in $150M round (CNBC)

• Revenge against the banking nerds is near (FT)

• Apollo looks to bring private capital to startup tech firms (BB)

• Warren and Sanders warn that adding private equity to 401(k)s is “dangerous” for Americans (BB) 

• Target’s internal Zoom glitch adds to series of mishaps amid ongoing job cuts (BB)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Markets were mixed today as the major indexes pulled back after earlier gains, following remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that a further rate cut in 2025 is not locked in.

• Yields climbed to ~4.07% on the 10-year Treasury, reflecting reduced odds of another Fed cut this year.

• Trade developments included a U.S.–South Korea deal cutting tariffs to 15% in exchange for LNG purchases and investment, and a new U.S.–Japan critical-minerals agreement.

• Asia markets were mixed overnight, with Japan’s Nikkei leading gains, while the U.S. dollar advanced against major peers.

Economic Data Highlights

• Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, signaling internal debate over future cuts.

• QT will end December 1, while bank reserves appear near their lower bound, prompting liquidity monitoring via the Fed’s SRF.

• Data flow remains limited due to the ongoing government shutdown, heightening reliance on earnings and Fed commentary.

• Markets adjusted to a slower easing outlook and fewer potential rate cuts in 2025.

Earnings Today

• Amazon (AMZN) – Focus on cloud margins, e-commerce rebound, and AI-driven logistics improvements.

• Apple (AAPL) – Watch for iPhone demand trends, services growth, and AI/VR product updates.

• MicroStrategy (MSTR) – Monitor Bitcoin exposure, software performance, and treasury strategy developments.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Bloom Energy ($BE) +18% after strong earnings and demand for energy.

• (-) Fiserv ($FI) -44% because the new CEO pulled guidance.

• (–) Stride ($LRN) -54% after the online learning company reported weak enrollment.

Prediction Markets

• Earnings Call Week Spotlight: Apple (Today after market close)

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• NEC agreed to buy CSG Systems International for $2.9 billion

• Francisco Partners agreed to acquire Jamf for $2.2 billion

• Fireworks AI, an AI inference startup, raised $250 million

• ConductorOne, an identity security and access governance startup, raised $79 million

• Campfire, an ERP platform for finance teams, raised $65 million

• Yendo, a vehicle-secured credit card company, raised $50 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

The Psychology of Stock Market Investing

Description:
This insightful book argues that investing success hinges less on spreadsheets and more on mindset. Hyun Kim uncovers how emotional traps—fear, overconfidence, herding—undermine even the smartest investors, and provides concrete tools, checklists, and habits to regain control. Whether you’re facing a market downturn or bubble, the focus is on mastering your mind to build lasting wealth.

Book Length: 222 pages
Release Date: August 6, 2025 

Ideal For:
Investors (new and experienced), financial planners, and anyone interested in the psychological side of markets—especially those who want to stop reacting and start investing with confidence and discipline.

“Smart investors make dumb decisions not because they lack skill, but because they fall into emotional traps they don’t even see.”

DAILY VISUAL

Gold Flirts With Correction Territory After Record Rally

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DAILY ACUMEN

Knowing vs Doing

Most of life’s wisdom already exists inside you.

You know you should save more, sleep better, speak kinder.

The problem isn’t knowledge, it’s execution.

The gap between knowing and doing is where character is built.

People chase new information to avoid confronting what they already know.

Real progress is boring repetition of simple truths.

Mastering life is less about discovering new secrets and more about finally living by the ones you already believe.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Ray Dalio’s advice for bosses and how he gives tough feedback

• The 10 toughest leadership problems

• Tips for handling critical feedback in the workplace

• The surprising age when your brain reaches its peak

• What sets the world’s best CEOs apart

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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