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🍋 Wall Street’s IPO Boom

🍋 Wall Street’s IPO Boom

Plus: Goldman’s CFO says PE deal boom is finally here, JPM down 5% after more than expected costs, and private credit is starting to look a lot like the bond market.

Short Squeez
December 10, 2025

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“Even if you fail at your ambitious thing, it's very hard to fail completely. That's the thing that people don't get.” — Larry Page

Good Morning! Goldman’s CFO says the PE deal boom is finally here, with sponsor-led activity picking up across the industry. JPMorgan dropped nearly 5% after warning of higher than expected costs. And SpaceX is eyeing a 2026 IPO that could raise $30 billion at a $1.5 trillion valuation, which would be the largest IPO in history.

NYC is set to add 12,000 apartments by converting outdated offices. Vietnam’s stock market is ripping in 2025. And Meta’s shifting AI strategy is reportedly creating internal confusion.

Plus: Options traders are bracing for big swings around today’s Fed decision, private credit is starting to look like the bond market, and here’s how much you need to join the richest 10% of U.S. households by region.

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SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Wall Street’s IPO Boom

The U.S. IPO engine is firing back up after three quiet years. With equities near record highs, bankers say pitch activity is “overwhelming,” and companies are now fighting for syndicate spots and racing to lock in underwriters. Wall Street isn’t just hoping for a 2026 IPO boom; it’s manufacturing one.

U.S. IPO volume will top $40 billion once Medline prices next week. At the top of the range, it would raise $5.37 billion, the largest global debut of 2025. It’s a real rebound from 2024, even if it still trails the $100B+ frenzy of 2020–2021. Bankers say 2025 is only the warm-up.

Bank of America’s Jim Cooney says the “velocity of IPO pitch activity is overwhelming across every industry,” and JPMorgan’s Keith Canton expects many late-2025 candidates to spill into early 2026, setting up a fourth straight year of rising issuance.

On-file names include Ethos, Grayscale, and York Space Systems, with confidential filers like Kraken and Alphonso behind them. Ackman’s closed-end fund, EquipmentShare, and even Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are circling the market.

SpaceX is also laying groundwork for what could be the biggest IPO ever, potentially raising $30+ billion at a $1.5 trillion valuation. Advisers are targeting mid-to-late 2026, though timing could slip. If it lands anywhere near expectations, it would instantly define the cycle and reset risk appetite across the market.

The window isn’t frictionless. Several hyped 2025 listings, including StubHub, Navan, and Gemini Space Station, have traded poorly, and IPOs as a group are lagging the S&P 500. That drag is forcing tighter pricing.

Moelis’s Steven Halperin says discounts will stay at the high end of recent ranges, with investors cautious and banks under pressure to deliver alpha. JPMorgan’s Canton echoed it: there have been big wins, but also deals that simply haven’t worked.

Takeaway: 2026’s pipeline looking stacked from Grayscale to Kraken, and SpaceX’s mega IPO listing. The idea of a $1.5 trillion company still being private is almost absurd…what’s the point of listing at that size? In any case, SpaceX’s IPO could set the tone for 2026 and maybe the next few years. Good luck to anyone pricing the week after.

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HEADLINES

Markets Rundown

Market Update

Stocks were little changed Tuesday as investors awaited the outcome of the Fed’s final policy meeting of 2025.
Markets broadly expect a 0.25% rate cut at today’s meeting, with focus on updated Fed projections and guidance for 2026.
On the data front, the NFIB Small Business Index rose to 99, slightly above forecasts, while October job openings held steady at 7.7 million, suggesting steady labor demand.
Bond yields edged higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield closing near 4.18%.
Asian markets were mixed overnight, while European equities slipped, even as the eurozone Sentix index improved modestly.

Economic Data Highlights

The NFIB Small Business Index improved for a second month, signaling a mild rebound in confidence.
The share of small businesses planning to hire rose to 19%, the highest since late 2024, pointing to a stable labor market despite recent weakness in private payrolls.
Expectations for higher inflation-adjusted sales also climbed to 15%, the best level since January.

Sector Trends

Technology stocks held firm, buoyed by optimism ahead of key earnings.
Industrials and energy were mixed, while defensive sectors lagged slightly.

Global Perspective

The U.S. dollar has weakened nearly 9% in 2025, its worst year since 2017, weighed by narrowing yield differentials and political uncertainty.
The weaker dollar has boosted international equity returns, with the MSCI AC World ex U.S. Index up over 30% in dollar terms.
We expect continued dollar softness into 2026, as global central banks diverge and the ECB nears the end of its easing cycle while the BOJ continues to tighten.

Earnings Today

Oracle (ORCL) – Watch for cloud and AI-driven revenue growth trends.
Adobe (ADBE) – Focus on Creative Cloud momentum and guidance updates.
Chewy (CHWY) – Investors will watch customer retention and profitability metrics closely.

Movers & Shakers

(+) Ares Management ($ARES) +7% after the investment management firm was added to the S&P 500.
(–) JPMorgan Chase ($JPM) -5% because the bank expects a significant increase in expenses next year.
(–) Twenty One Capital ($XXI) -20% after the Tether-backed crypto treasury firm completed its SPAC merger.

Prediction Markets

Who knew there was so much drama in M&A?
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Private Dealmaking

ContextLogic will buy US Salt, an evaporated salt products provider, for $907.5 million
Saviynt, an identity security company, raised $700 million
Unconventional AI, a developer of next-gen digital computers, raised $475 million
Airwallex, a payments firm, raised $330 million
Boom Supersonic, a supersonic jetmaker also using its turbines to power AI data centers, raised $300 million
Blue Current, a developer of silicon solid-state batteries, raised $81 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

The Rembrandt Heist

Description: A gripping true-crime dive into one of art history’s most audacious thefts — the 1975 brazen daylight heist that saw a Myles Connor shake down the Museum of Fine Arts, Boston for a stolen Rembrandt van Rijn painting. Amore chronicles not just the crime, but the unlikely friendship, betrayal, and psychology behind what makes someone risk it all for one frame on a wall. Part heist thriller, part moral portrait — it’s as much about loyalty and identity as it is about art and crime.

Book Length: 272 pages
Release Date: November 4, 2025

Ideal For: True-crime junkies, art lovers, history buffs, and anyone fascinated by what happens when obsession, loyalty and criminal genius collide.

“Some paintings are worth more than money — they’re worth the risk.”

DAILY VISUAL

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DAILY ACUMEN

Curiosity

Leonardo da Vinci filled over 13,000 pages of notebooks with questions and observations about everything from anatomy to water flow.

His insatiable curiosity made him a genius. Children ask about 300 questions a day. Adults? Maybe 10.

We lose our curiosity as we age, and with it, our capacity for wonder and growth.

Ask more questions. Challenge assumptions. Explore the unfamiliar.

Remember, curiosity didn't kill the cat, complacency did.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

How breathwork became the new meditation
16 surprising ways to beat stress
Is cardio or strength more important for longevity?
How to find your brain’s productivity style
Why disciplined people don’t feel disciplined

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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