Good Morning! Megadeals keep rolling: global M&A transactions over $10 billion have already hit a record 63 this year. The SEC is investigating Jefferies over the First Brands collapse. And TikTok Shop is pushing into luxury retail.

High schoolers are ditching the Ivy League for the SEC. Total comp for U.S. workers in sales, trading, and research tied to credit is expected to drop 6% this year. And young investors are choosing to invest in stocks over homeownership.

Plus: Private credit keeps attracting capital even as returns weaken, and the untold story of Charlie Munger’s final years.

PE associates, you can now email your CIM to [email protected] and receive a bid-ready LBO model in under 5 minutes. Book a demo here.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Wall Street Owns Hong Kong ECM

Hong Kong’s equity markets are roaring back, and Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are eating everyone’s lunch. The surge is being driven by mainland Chinese companies tapping Hong Kong to reach global investors. And when those Chinese issuers want foreign capital, they still call Wall Street first.

Morgan Stanley leads Hong Kong issuance at $11.6 billion this year, with Goldman close behind at $7.4 billion, followed by Chinese banks Citic and CICC.

Hong Kong ECM volume has hit $73.1 billion this year, a 232% jump from 2024. Blockbuster offerings are driving the surge: CATL raised $4.6 billion, BYD brought in $5.6 billion, and Zijin Gold completed a major IPO.

After two years of foreign money fleeing China, global capital is slowly coming back, and Chinese companies know that accessing U.S. and European liquidity requires Western distribution. A local broker cannot move billions overnight, but a bulge-bracket balance sheet can.

Geopolitics still hangs over the market. A U.S. congressional committee recently questioned Morgan Stanley about underwriting Zijin Gold, citing alleged Xinjiang ties, a reminder that China-related ECM carries built-in political risk. But scrutiny is lagging behind issuance. The capital is flowing, and banks are following it.

Meanwhile, Chinese institutions are expanding aggressively. CICC, Citic, and Huatai dominate mainland IPO origination and have strengthened their Hong Kong presence. They cannot match Wall Street’s global investor reach, but they control what Western banks need most: direct lines to Beijing and the CSRC. The biggest deals now require both PRC banks and Western syndication.

Takeaway: Chinese banks may own the regulatory lane, but Wall Street still owns the international order book. In a market shaped by geopolitics and scale, both sides are essential, and when everyone’s essential, the fee pool gets crowded very fast. Hong Kong ECM is back, and everyone wants a bite of the dim sum.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Megadeals hit record as Wall Street’s animal spirits roar back (FT)

• SEC probes Jefferies over First Brands collapse, report says (CNBC) 

• TikTok Shop pushes into luxury retail with $11,000 handbags (BB) 

• High schoolers are swapping the Ivy League for the SEC thanks to sunshine and campus culture (NYP)

• Lower bonuses await U.S. corporate debt traders (BB)

• Young people forgo homeownership to invest in the stock market (Axios)

• Investors are still piling into private credit even as returns fade (MS) 

• The untold story of Charlie Munger’s final years (WSJ)

• Rents are falling nationwide, but it is not helping the sluggish home-sales market (YF)

• Morgan Stanley warns Oracle credit protection nearing an all-time high (BB)

• Jefferies joins Wall Street peers in Saudi private-credit push (BB) 

• Bitcoin’s latest drawdown breaks an old rule as volatility stays surprisingly tame (BB) 

• How Google quietly put together the pieces for its AI comeback (CNBC) 

• Bank of America expects only a meager gain for stocks next year (CNBC)

• RBC denies claims of boys club culture, bias against women (BB)

• Sequoia-backed Pennylane eyes funding at $4.3B valuation (BB)

• KKR, Bain and private equity’s push into Japan (FT)

• China industrial profits drop 5.5% in October, worst performance in five months (CNBC)

• Enhanced Games to go public in $1.2B SPAC deal (FT)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Stocks ticked higher Friday, closing out November with modest gains and extending the market’s winning streak to seven consecutive months.

• The S&P 500 rose over 3% for the week and ended slightly positive for the month, while 10 of 11 sectors finished higher, led by energy and consumer discretionary; health care was the lone decliner.

• It was a quiet session on the data front as investors looked ahead to next week’s ISM PMI and PCE inflation reports.

• Bond yields edged higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield just above 4% and the 2-year at 3.5%.

Economic Data Highlights

• With few new releases, investors focused on the macro backdrop ahead of key inflation and manufacturing data this week.

• The market remains supported by expectations for a December Fed rate cut, with odds hovering near 75%.

• Yields remain rangebound as easing inflation and resilient corporate earnings offset concerns around slowing global growth.

• Lower energy prices have helped moderate near-term inflation pressures, while consumer spending has shown signs of stabilization following a strong summer.

Sector Trends

• Leadership has started to rotate in Q4, with health care up over 13% including dividends, followed by communication services (+7.5%) and utilities (+3.2%).

• Value stocks have slightly outperformed growth in the fourth quarter, with the Russell 1000 Value Index up 2.4% versus a 1.3% gain for growth.

Seasonality Outlook

• Despite volatility earlier in 2025, the S&P 500 is up 16% year-to-date, recovering fully from April’s 19% correction.

• Historically, December has been one of the strongest months for equities — with positive returns 71% of the time since 1980 and an average gain of 1.2%.

• While not guaranteed, seasonal strength, solid earnings, and easing policy expectations could support a year-end “Santa Claus rally”.

Earnings Today

• MongoDB (MDB) – Focus on demand trends in enterprise AI infrastructure and Atlas cloud revenue growth.

• Credo Technology (CRDO) – Watch for commentary on hyperscaler demand and next-gen connectivity product adoption.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Intel ($INTC) +10% after a report that Apple may start using the company’s chips again.

• (–) Urban Outfitters ($URBN) -5% because of an analyst downgrade by Wall Street Zen.

• (–) Tilray Brands ($TLRY) -21% after the cannabis company announced a 1-for-10 reverse stock split.

Prediction Markets

• 100% chance he says “woke,” right?

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Federato, an insurance workflow software provider, raised $100 million

• Tenzai, a penetration testing startup, raised $75 million

• GC AI, an AI platform for legal teams, raised $60 million

• Nanoramic, a battery startup, raised $54 million

• Fabric8Labs, an electrochemical additive manufacturing startup, raised $50 million

• Lighthouse Canton, an asset manager, raised $40 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Raising Brows

Description: A fearless immigrant-to-innovator memoir. From escaping communist Romania to redefining beauty with the “Golden Ratio,” Soare charts how a single, contrarian bet on eyebrows became a global brand—blending grit, art-school precision, and relentless belief into a playbook for building something from nothing.

Book Length: 288 pages
Release Date: October 28, 2025

Ideal For: Entrepreneurs, beauty pros, brand builders, and anyone who loves founder stories about resilience and reinvention.

“Brows frame the face; belief frames the future. I built both—one careful line at a time.”

DAILY VISUAL

Hollister is Back

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The Coverd Card launches early 2026 with the same interactive reward structure built into every transaction.

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DAILY ACUMEN

Restraint

Not every thought needs to be spoken, and not every impulse needs to be acted on. In a culture that glorifies speed and reaction, restraint is becoming rare. Yet the people who hold their fire longest often win the farthest.

Restraint sharpens clarity. It gives you time to see the full board before you move a piece. The investor who waits for conviction, the negotiator who lets silence do the work, the friend who chooses kindness over being right, each practices a quiet form of strength.

Most failures come from acting too fast, not too slow. Restraint is what turns intelligence into wisdom. It’s knowing you could, but choosing not to and letting that decision speak louder than anything you might have said or done.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Do these 2 things in a job interview to find the best talent

• There’s nothing authentic about authentic leadership

• Getting through the dark of winter

• How doing less makes you more productive

• 8 habits of disciplined people

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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