Good Morning! Texas Instruments is acquiring Silicon Labs for $7.5B as chip consolidation accelerates. IPOs are seeing their biggest week in five years, with eight $100M+ raises. PE exits rose 5.4% in 2025, but total value fell 21% to $412B.

DEI index participation among Fortune 500s is down 65%. Google beat earnings and is planning to double AI capex in 2026 to $185B. And hedge funds have already made $24 billion shorting software stocks in 2026 and are doubling down.

Plus: Private payrolls grew by just 22,000 in January, the market for new, used, and even fake Rolex watches is booming, and how fit do we actually need to be?

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SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

VC Backs Away from Fitness

Health and fitness always surge in popularity in January and February, so chances are your gym is packed, and personal trainers and membership advisors alike are figuring out how to make it rain. But, in 2026, while people are still locking in and working out, what has changed is who’s funding the companies behind them.

Venture capital has largely pulled back from the fitness and wellness space after going all-in during the pandemic. Global funding peaked around four years ago in 2022 and hit a cyclical low last year, with just over $5 billion invested worldwide. That’s a sharp comedown from the pandemic-era boom, when everything from smart bikes to supplements could raise money on momentum alone.

That doesn’t mean capital has left the space entirely; it’s just gotten picky. Investors are still backing platforms with durable engagement and data moats. Oura raised more than $900 million last fall at an $11 billion valuation.

Strava reportedly reached a $2.2 billion valuation this year with new funding led by Sequoia and potential IPO plans. And Eight Sleep pulled in $100 million for its smart sleep systems. The common thread is recurring usage, long-term retention, and products that live on your body or in your daily routine, not in the corner of a room.

Outside traditional venture, private equity is stepping in where scale and consolidation matter. Last week’s merger of Mindbody, Booker, ClassPass, and EGYM under a new parent, Playlist, came with $785 million in fresh equity and a $7.5 billion valuation. That deal is less about consumer hype and more about owning the operating system behind studios, gyms, and wellness providers, with AI layered on top.

Where the money is not going is just as telling. Connected fitness hardware has fallen hard out of favor. Peloton shares are down more than 95% from their peak. Hydrow and Tonal, once heavily funded, haven’t raised fresh capital in years. Investors have learned the hard way that expensive hardware, long replacement cycles, and volatile demand make for unforgiving economics once growth slows.

Takeaway: Fitness didn’t lose relevance, but it did lose its growth premium. Capital is flowing to software, data, sleep, diagnostics, and AI-enabled platforms, not bikes, mirrors, or treadmills. Venture isn’t betting on getting you ripped; it’s betting on owning the infrastructure, insights, and subscriptions around how you live.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Texas Instruments is buying Silicon Labs for $7.5 billion (Axios)

• IPOs are having their biggest week in years (Axios)

• Private equity exits rise as returns fall (CNBC)

• Corporate DEI index sees 65% drop in participation from Fortune 500 companies (CNBC)

• Google parent beats on revenue, projects significant AI spending increase (CNBC)

• Hedge funds made $24 billion shorting software stocks so far in 2026 and are increasing the bet (CNBC)

• Private payroll growth in January misses expectations as market awaits official jobs data (YF)

• Rolex prices fake, used or new, the watch market is booming (BB)

• Uber reports 20% revenue growth in fourth-quarter, but issues soft profit guidance (CNBC)

• Wall Street’s rotation into value has a dot-com warning to it (BB)

• Private credit firm Ruya plans $400 million fundraising in Middle East (BB)

• Why Big Tech companies are racing to fund OpenAI (TI)

• Why the AI-driven software stock crash probably isn’t over (YF)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. equities were mixed, with the Dow higher while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped

• Energy and materials led; technology and communication services underperformed

• Ongoing rotation away from tech and growth toward cyclical and defensive areas continued

• International equities outperformed: MSCI EAFE +5% YTD, MSCI EM +9% YTD (USD)

• Precious metals were mixed on the day; gold lower, silver higher, both 14%+ YTD

Economic Data Highlights

• ISM Services (Jan) printed 53.8, in line with expectations and firmly in expansion

• New orders at 53.1 signal continued demand, though slightly below forecasts

• Services account for ~75% of U.S. GDP, and combined with improving manufacturing data, point to above-trend growth with limited recession signals

Sector Trends

• Cyclicals and defensives attracted flows as investors sought better valuations and stability

• AI and software names continued to lag amid scrutiny of monetization and competition

• Global diversification remained a tailwind as non-U.S. markets outpaced U.S. benchmarks

Earnings Season

• Amazon reports today

• With ~48% of the S&P 500 reported, Q4 earnings growth expectations have risen to ~12%

• Technology remains a major contributor with ~30% Q4 growth

• 2026 EPS expected 14%+, with all sectors positive except energy

Looking Ahead

• The combination of solid services activity, improving manufacturing, and strong earnings momentum supports a constructive outlook

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Enphase Energy ($ENPH) +39% after the solar stock provided strong guidance.

• (–) Palantir ($PLTR) -12% because investors took profits after earnings.

• (–) Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD) -17% after the semiconductor company missed earnings.

Prediction Markets

• Unemployment numbers for January come out tomorrow at 8:30am

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Banco Santander acquired Webster Financial for $12.3 billion

• Texas Instruments acquired Silicon Laboratories for $7.5 billion

• Colliers acquired Ayesa Engineering for $700 million

• Skyryse, an aviation automation company, raised over $300 million

• Bedrock Robotics, a developer of construction robots, raised $270 million

• Positron, a memory chip company, raised $230 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

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DAILY VISUAL

Walmart Joins the Trillion-Dollar Club

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Visibility Tax

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Your career has the same problem. Deep work that creates value is often illegible. Visible work that signals busyness is legible. So people optimize for meetings, emails, and performative productivity.

The "visibility tax" is the cost of making your work legible. Documenting everything. Updating stakeholders. Proving you're working. This overhead can exceed 50% of your time. You're working to show you're working.

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ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• How fit do we really need to be?

• Is a 'return to office' killing your efficiency?

• McKinsey on 5 ways to boost workplace productivity

• Tips to save money across all parts of your life 

• Do bosses still need a private office?

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