🍋 It’s Time To Buy A Rolex

Why luxury watch prices hit a 2-year low, plus inflation also hit a 2-year low, and 2023 Wall Street bonuses.

Together With

“If I believe that I am right, I will take it to the end of the earth until I am proven right.” — Bill Ackman

 

Good Morning! Wall Street’s already popping bottles over yesterday’s CPI report - October saw inflation increase at its slowest pace in two years at 3.2%. But Ken Griffin is warning that the Fed could damage its credibility if it slashes rates too soon.

Gen-Z says media and entertainment is the number one industry they want to work in. Toys-R-Us is making a comeback and reopening shop in America’s biggest mall. And you might have to wait another year for that bonus rebound - a Wall Street comp study projects buyside bonuses to stay flat, and investment bank bonuses to fall as much as 25%.

Looking to put that bonus to work? Masterworks enables its 840k+ users to invest in artworks by artists like Banksy, Basquiat, and Picasso.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

It’s Time To Buy A Rolex

Looks like it’s time to flex your wrist game and snag a Rolex or Patek Philippe – the luxury watch market is giving you the green light.

Bloomberg's Subdial Watch Index, the key index tracking luxury watch prices, took a 1.8% dip in October, hitting a 2-year low at $34k. That's a 42% nosedive from its April 2022 peak of $60k. And that means we’re seeing steep discounts - and it’s not even Black Friday yet!

During the pandemic, everyone wanted a piece of Rolex, Patek, and Audemars Piguet action, sending demand through the roof. But now, as we're battling high-interest rates and lingering inflation, the luxury boom seems to be winding down.

But, if you want to lock in a deal right now, experts are cautioning you to hold up. Prices could be poised to fall even more. The amount of pre-owned watches listed is up by 5% since August. And sellers are dropping prices, playing the sales game before the holiday rush hits. 

Takeaway: It’s Econ 101 - luxury goods are very sensitive to high inflation and interest rates. And Americans just don’t have the Wall Street bonuses or pandemic savings or crypto bros that they did in 2021.

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Stocks surged after better-than-expected inflation data.

Movers & Shakers

  • (+) Enphase Energy ($ENPH) +16% because clean energy stocks jumped after the CPI report.

  • (+) VF Corp. ($VFC) +10% because the Timbs maker’s director bought an additional 20k in shares.

  • (–) Sea Limited ($SE) -22% after the tech conglomerate posted a surprising loss.

Private Dealmaking

  • Glencore bought the coal unit of Teck Resources for $6.9 billion 

  • Columbia Asia Healthcare bought the hospital unit of Ramsay Health Care for $1.2 billion

  • TotalEnergies bought three of TexGen Power’s power plants for $635 million

  • Aurelius bought The Body Shop for $254 million

  • Airbnb bought GamePlanner.AI, an AI startup, for around $200 million

  • MBrace Therapeutics, an antibody-drug developer, raised $85 million

For more PE & VC deals, subscribe to Buysiders.

SPONSORED BY MASTERWORKS

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It's called Masterworks. Their nearly $1 billion collection includes works by greats like Banksy, Picasso, and Basquiat, all of which are collectively owned by everyday investors. When Masterworks sells a painting – like the 16 it's already sold – investors reap their portion of the  profits. 

It's easy to get started but offerings can sell out in minutes. However, as a trusted partner, Short Squeez readers can skip the waitlist to join with this exclusive link.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

  • Fed forecasts are the new S&P 500 price targets (YF)

  • Private equity firms trapped in China after $1.5 trillion betting spree (BB)

  • Americans believe high inflation is the new normal (Axios)

  • David Rubenstein on the lack of private equity deals (BB)

  • The trillion dollar win hiding in your mortgage (WSJ)

  • Wells Fargo cuts 50 investment bankers amid deal slump (BB)

  • Why high prices, not inflation, is the real issue (Vox)

  • Truth Social has lost $73 million since its launch (CNBC)

  • ESPN Bet, rebranded from Penn Entertainment, is almost here (YF)

BOOK OF THE DAY

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ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

DAILY VISUAL

Inflation Softens

Year-over-year change in CPI

Source: Axios

SPONSORED BY RYSE

The window to invest in RYSE closes this month

Venture capitalists know how difficult it is to spot promising early investment opportunities. 

Even the all-knowing Sharks from Shark Tank declined the offer to buy 10% of Ring for $700,000 - a decision they would regret when Amazon acquired Ring, turning the $700,000 into $10M!

What made Ring blow up and change doorbells forever? Retail distribution.

You’ve heard us talk about RYSE and their deal to launch in +100 Best Buys. But did you know that they pitched on Canada’s Shark Tank (Dragons Den) and received two offers?

Exits in the smart home industry have shown to yield massive returns for early investors (look at Ring and Nest's billion dollar acquisitions) and the Dragons think they’ve spotted a winner in RYSE.

DAILY ACUMEN

Zeigarnik Effect

People remember unfinished things better.

The natural tendency to remember unfinished things is called the Zeigarnik effect.

Ever notice how some television commercials get cut off early?

The company paying for the commercial cuts it off so that it sticks in your head longer than other commercials.

The best way to forget unfinished things (commercials or songs) is to finish them in your head.

If a song gets stuck in your head, try singing the last lines to yourself.

You'll be amazed at how quickly it goes away.

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

 

 

 

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Disclosure: Investing involves risk and past performance is not indicative of future returns. See important Reg A disclosures and aggregate advisory performance at masterworks.com/cd.

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