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🍋 The Venezuela Trade

🍋 The Venezuela Trade

Plus: The top-performing hedge funds of 2025, the 39-round Goldman Sachs interview, and Meta’s Reels became a $50 billion business.

Short Squeez
January 05, 2026

Together With

“Maduro effed around and he found out.” — Pete Hegseth, United States Secretary of War

Good Morning! Welcome to Mondayest Monday of the year. Tesla’s Q4 deliveries fell far more than expected, and BYD surpassed Tesla as the world’s largest EV seller. Hedge funds capped a strong 2025, on pace for their best year in at least five years, with Bridgewater’s Pure Alpha II up 34%, its best performance ever.

Apollo data shows companies are staying private longer, with the median age now at 14 years. Brooklyn Mirage is set to reopen as Pacha New York, and banks are earning higher fees on green bonds than on fossil-fuel debt.

Plus: How Meta’s Reels became a $50 billion business, OpenAI taking on Apple’s app store dominance, the Goldman Sachs interview process that dragged through 39 one-on-ones, and is a Birkin bag actually a good investment?

New year, new yield. Earn 5-15% on your cash with YieldClub.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

The Venezuela Trade

The capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro is already one of the biggest foreign-policy stories of the decade. Within hours, Wall Street was already modeling how to monetize it and picking the winners and losers.

Take Charles Myers, chairman of Signum Global Advisors and former head of investment advisory at Evercore. He is planning a fact-finding trip to Caracas as soon as March, alongside ~20 senior figures from hedge funds, asset managers, and the energy and defense sectors.

The group expects to meet directly with the new government, including the president, finance minister, energy minister, central bank head, and stock-exchange officials.

Venezuela has obvious draws and natural resources and sits on the world’s largest proven oil reserves ($20+ trillion of oil at current prices). The country also has massive untapped natural gas, critical minerals, and decades of underinvested infrastructure.

Myers estimates the country could see $500 billion to $750 billion in foreign investment opportunities over the next five years if a market-friendly government sticks. That would make Venezuela one of the biggest reconstruction and reopening trades anywhere on Earth.

Venezuela was economically isolated for years rather than being structurally broken. The assets are there, and the pipelines, ports, and refineries still exist. If sanctions ease and foreign capital is welcomed, reopening could happen faster than in many post-crisis countries because Venezuela already sits inside global energy and commodity supply chains.

U.S. officials are also encouraging major oil companies to help rebuild Venezuela’s energy sector, framing it as critical to getting oil “flowing the way it should.”

Chevron, currently the only U.S. oil major operating in the country, stands to benefit most, while ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips are watching closely from the sidelines. A sustained political shift could also trigger a re-rating of Venezuela’s deeply distressed sovereign debt.

Takeaway: Venezuela has been socialist for nearly thirty years, and money isn’t flooding in tomorrow, but the roadshow has begun. Institutional capital is already positioning for what could become one of the largest resource-driven recovery stories of the decade.

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HEADLINES

Markets Rundown

Market Update

Global equities opened 2026 mostly higher, led by Asia and U.S. small- and mid-caps
Asian markets rallied after renewed AI optimism, with several indexes hitting fresh highs
U.S. markets were mixed; semiconductor strength wasn’t enough to lift the Nasdaq
Oil moved lower following its steepest annual decline since 2020; silver extended strong momentum

Sector Trends

Pro-cyclical leadership emerged in U.S. small- and mid-cap stocks
Technology sentiment improved globally, particularly around AI developments in China
Precious metals continued to attract flows after a standout 2025

Corporate & Macro Notes

Berkshire Hathaway formally named Greg Abel as CEO, succeeding Warren Buffett
No major U.S. economic data releases on the first trading day of the year
Investor optimism carried over from a strong 2025, despite elevated valuations

Economic Data Highlights (Looking Ahead)

ISM Manufacturing (Mon); ADP payrolls, ISM Services, JOLTS, factory orders (Wed); jobless claims and productivity (Thu); jobs report and consumer sentiment (Fri)
Recent labor data show mixed signals, with unemployment at 4.6%, driven in part by rising labor force participation

Outlook

After multiple years of double-digit gains, earnings growth is expected to drive returns in 2026
AI remains a key long-term tailwind, but leadership is likely to broaden across sectors and regions
A balanced, diversified portfolio remains favored as the bull market enters its fourth year

Movers & Shakers

(+) CoreWeave ($CRWV) +11% after an Nvidia-led tech rebound lifted the AI rally.
(+) Restoration Hardware ($RH) +8% because Trump will delay tariffs on furniture.
(–) Tesla ($TSLA) -3% after the EV maker's Q4 sales fell a lot more than expected.

Prediction Markets

Talks of recession have slowed and traders are taking note.
Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

The Correspondent

Description: A warm, epistolary novel that traces the life of Sybil Van Antwerp through the letters she writes and receives — to friends, family, authors she admires, and even those she’s never sent. Told with quiet humor, tenderness, and insight, the story explores aging, regret, love, connection, and the power of words to shape and redeem a life.

Book Length: 304 pages
Release Date: April 29, 2025

Ideal For: Literary fiction lovers, book clubs, readers who appreciate character-driven stories about life’s second acts, and anyone who savors the beauty of language and connection.

“Life doesn’t arrive all at once — it’s delivered one letter at a time.”

DAILY VISUAL

More Companies Staying Private for Longer

Source: Apollo

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DAILY ACUMEN

Potential

There's a haunting question that keeps people paralyzed: "What if I'm wasting my potential?"

A Stanford graduate turns down job offers because none feel "big enough" for her talents. A musician won't release songs because they're not "masterpiece-worthy yet." A writer hoards ideas, waiting for the perfect moment to execute them brilliantly.

Meanwhile, years pass. Nothing gets created. Potential remains just that, potential. Here's the uncomfortable truth: unrealized potential is worthless.

It's a cruel comfort blanket that keeps you warm while your dreams freeze to death. The person doing mediocre work and shipping it is infinitely ahead of the "talented" person doing nothing.

Picasso created over 50,000 works in his lifetime, not all masterpieces, but all evidence of a life fully lived. Your potential doesn't care about perfection; it expires from inaction.

What project are you not starting because you're afraid it won't live up to your potential?

Remember, the graveyard is the richest place on earth, filled with books never written, businesses never started, and songs never sung. Don't let your potential die with you.

ENLIGHTENMENT

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A reward program for the 21st century
Why you should skip Dry January
How to love learning again
Your brain changes at 9, 32, 66, and 83
Most goals fail, says financial psychologist, 4 steps to actually achieve yours
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Memes of the Day

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