Good Morning! The hedge fund war for talent is heating up, with Millennium hiring four Citadel traders. JPMorgan warns the S&P 500 could fall 10% if the war in Iran drags on. And major banks, including Goldman, Citi, and Morgan Stanley, are allowing staff in the UAE to relocate out of the country and work remotely.

Wall Street execs blame Morgan Stanley’s latest layoffs on AI. Anthropic is suing the Trump administration over its Pentagon blacklist. And Microsoft launched a new AI tool that directly competes with Anthropic.

Plus: Manhattan office tower values are sliding below their COVID-era slump amid fears of an AI-driven white-collar shakeout, secondary buyers are circling private credit assets as redemptions rise, and Lloyd Blankfein talks Wall Street crises.

Don’t get stuck retracing your steps in the middle of IC. See how F2 audits the numbers behind every deal.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

The Tweet That Moved Markets

The US-Iran war entered its second week Monday, and markets opened pricing in a full oil shock. Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global oil supply, sent crude surging overnight.

Brent briefly topped $120 a barrel as tanker traffic through the strait ground to a halt. Asian markets took the first hit, with South Korea's Kosdaq and Japan's Nikkei both selling off sharply.

By the New York open the Dow was down nearly 900 points, and traders were whispering the word no one likes to hear: stagflation.

Then at 3:16 p.m., everything flipped. A CBS reporter (Weijia Jiang) posted on X that President Trump told her the war with Iran was “very complete, pretty much,” adding that U.S. military operations were ahead of expectations.

Within minutes oil collapsed and Brent slid roughly $30 a barrel and WTI fell to about $85, a $34 round trip in a single session.

Stocks ripped higher. The Nasdaq finished up 1.4% and the Dow erased a nearly 900-point loss to close up 239 points. And the 10-year yield settled back near 4.1% after briefly spiking above 4.2%. 

Takeaway: Monday was a reminder of how geopolitical markets actually trade. Macro models can handicap inflation, growth, and energy supply shocks. What they can't price is a quote posted to social media in the last hour of trading. In headline-driven markets, sometimes the most important indicator isn't the data, it's whoever Trump talked to in the last twenty minutes.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Millennium hires four Citadel stock traders in post-bonus churn (BB) 

• JPMorgan sees 10% correction in S&P 500 as war risks build up (BB) 

• Wall Street banks allowing UAE staff to leave country; work remotely (BB)

• Wall Street executives blame Morgan Stanley’s latest layoffs on AI (NYP)

• Anthropic sues Trump administration over Pentagon blacklist (CNBC)

• Microsoft launches AI tool that competes with Anthropic (Axios)

• Manhattan office tower values plummet below COVID-era slump amid fears AI will wreak a white-collar bloodbath (NYP)

• AI slop renders resumes less essential, employers say (LI)

• Secondary buyers eye private-credit assets as redemptions mount (WSJ)

• Ex-EY executive launches private equity-backed tax firm to challenge Big Four (FT)

• DOJ settles antitrust case with Live Nation and Ticketmaster (Axios)

• Private credit woes could become data center difficulties (Axios)

• OpenAI to buy cybersecurity startup Promptfoo to better safeguard AI agents (CNBC)

• Restaurants turn to mini cocktails to lure customers in age of Ozempic (NYP)

• Inside the booming business of wellness third spaces and membership clubs (CNBC)

• KKR eyes multibillion-dollar sale of data centre cooling company (FT)

• Billionaire with 16,000 kilos of gold sees lasting bull case (BB)

• Billionaire Joe Lewis scores 3,500% return on ‘Masterpieces’ art (BB)

• Former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein talks Wall Street crises (CBS)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. equities rebounded after early losses as President Trump signaled the Iran conflict may be nearing an off-ramp

• Technology led gains, rising more than 1% and continuing recent relative strength

• Energy and financials were the only S&P 500 sectors to finish lower

• WTI crude briefly approached $120 overnight but fell sharply to below $90 on hopes of de-escalation

• Asian markets fell sharply overnight and European equities closed lower

• Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year at 4.1% and the 2-year at 3.55%

Oil Price Shocks and the Economy

• Oil prices remain at their highest levels since 2022, adding near-term pressure to headline inflation

• The economic impact will depend on the duration of the conflict and the extent of supply disruptions

• Historically, geopolitical shocks have produced mostly short-term market impacts

• The U.S. is a net oil exporter, and energy intensity in the economy has declined roughly 70% since the 1950s

• Oil would likely need to remain well above current levels to meaningfully raise recession risks

• Recent economic data still point to solid underlying momentum

  • ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs remained in expansion territory

  • Unemployment rate stands at 4.4%

  • Initial jobless claims average about 216K over the past four weeks

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Hims & Hers ($HIMS) +41% after reaching a distribution deal with Novo Nordisk.

• (+) Live Nation ($LYV) +6% because the company reached a settlement with the DOJ.

• (–) Olema Pharmaceuticals ($OLMA) -26% after the company’s breast cancer trial missed expectations.

Prediction Markets

• Will the greatest run of all time (Nancy Pelosi’s) finally come to an end?

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Servier will acquire Day One Biopharmaceuticals for $2.5 billion 

• Nscale, an AI infrastructure hyperscaler, raised $2 billion

• Agilent Technologies will acquire Biocare Medical for $950 million

• Valinor Enterprises, an operational holding company focused on defense and government technology, raised $85 million

• Champ Titles, a provider of digital solutions for motor vehicle agencies, raised $55 million

• Prolium Bioscience, an autoimmune biotech, raised $50 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Think Faster, Talk Smarter

Description: A practical guide to communicating clearly and confidently in moments when preparation is limited and the pressure is high. Stanford lecturer Matt Abrahams shares techniques for structuring quick responses, managing anxiety, and thinking on your feet during interviews, meetings, presentations, and difficult conversations. Drawing on research and real world experience coaching leaders and professionals, the book shows how anyone can become more articulate and persuasive in spontaneous situations.

Book Length: 256 pages
Release Date: September 26, 2023

Ideal For: Professionals, leaders, students, and anyone who wants to communicate with clarity and confidence when asked questions unexpectedly.

Strong communication is not about perfect wording. It is about clear structure, calm thinking, and the confidence to respond in the moment.

DAILY VISUAL

GoPro is Dying

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DAILY ACUMEN

Forget It

Some things are worth carrying and some things are just weight you've gotten so used to that you've stopped noticing it's slowing you down. Most people don't distinguish between the two.

Letting something go is not the same as pretending it didn't happen. You can fully acknowledge something, understand what it cost you, and still choose not to let it have a permanent seat at the table.

Forgiveness, whether of others or yourself, is less about generosity and more about deciding who gets to have influence over your future.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Why oversharing is underrated

• How wealthy are the top 1% in each major economy

• Influencers are promoting peptides for better health

• Should higher earners still make 401(k) catch‑up contributions? 

• Quiet quitting isn’t the problem, quiet managing is

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Memes of the Day

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