Good Morning! Investors are on edge as global markets assess the fallout from the escalating conflict in Iran. OpenAI closed a $110 billion funding round at a $730 billion valuation, with backing from Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank. And SpaceX is reportedly considering a confidential IPO filing as soon as March.

Trump moved to blacklist Anthropic from government contracts. A finance technologist claims he replicated Bloomberg’s $30,000-a-year Terminal using Perplexity’s tools. And private equity is entering a “Darwinian” phase, with some funds at risk of extinction.

Plus: An ex-Moelis banker is set to plead guilty in a global insider trading case, Singapore is becoming the latest hotspot for bagels, and are Anthropic’s new AI work tools truly game-changing for professionals?

Mosaic is expanding into investment banking and private credit. Book a demo with them to learn more.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

The Loan-to-Own Rave

One of the more unusual Wall Street workouts of the decade didn’t happen in a boardroom, it played out at a 32,000-square-foot nightclub in Brooklyn.

Andrew Axelrod, founder of Axar Capital, built a roughly $120 million credit position in the Brooklyn Mirage over several years.

The thesis was simple: live events generate strong cash flow, and senior capital in a top venue offered downside protection. Axar first loaned $30 million during Covid to stabilize the business, then extended additional capital for operations and a major renovation.

In summer 2023, two attendees were found dead in nearby Newtown Creek after leaving the venue, including a Goldman Sachs analyst. Authorities ruled the deaths drownings with no criminality, but public perception shifted. At the same time, fans complained about higher prices and overcrowding, ticket sales softened, and liquidity tightened.

Axelrod pushed for a sale, and Houlihan Lokey lined up an $80 million deal with AEG in fall 2023. It collapsed after founder Billy Bildstein stopped responding.

From there, it became a classic loan-to-own scenario. Axar funded a renovation that ran over budget, bringing total exposure to about $120 million. Three days before the May 2025 reopening, New York City deemed the structure unsafe. The club never reopened and filed for Chapter 11 that August.

Through bankruptcy court, Axar converted its debt into equity, wiping out the founder. In December, Axelrod struck a $35 million debt agreement with a Dubai-based firm behind the Pacha nightclub brand. Under the approved plan, Pacha would acquire Axar’s stake for $135 million, subject to certain conditions, with plans to relaunch the venue as “Pacha New York.”

Takeaway: The Brooklyn Mirage is a case study in what happens when a culturally iconic asset is financed with layered, high-interest debt. When performance falters, optionality shifts to the lender. In distressed, control flows to whoever sits highest in the capital stack with the patience and capital to ride out the volatility.

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Evercore has integrated Mosaic into its modeling suite, with additional firms currently onboarding.

In addition, Mosaic is expanding its banking and private credit teams and is looking for ex-bankers and credit analysts who want to reshape the industry.

Apply today or book a demo.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• U.S. crude oil set to top $70 a barrel when trading begins on fears of Iran supply disruption (CNBC)

• OpenAI closes $110 billion funding round with backing from Amazon, Nvidia, Softbank (CNBC)

• SpaceX weighs confidential IPO filing as soon as March (YF)

• Trump moves to blacklist Anthropic AI from all government work (Axios)

• Finance techie says they cloned Bloomberg's $30k-a-year Terminal with Perplexity's Computer (TH)

• Private equity enters its ‘Darwinian’ era as experts warn some funds face extinction (CNBC)

• Ex-Moelis banker to plead guilty in global insider trading case (BB)

• The latest destination for bagels isn’t New York. It’s Singapore (BB)

• Core wholesale prices rose 0.8% in January, much more than expected (CNBC) 

• Trump Media in talks to spin off Truth Social from DJT into independent stock (CNBC)

• Hedge fund Millennium poaches Goldman’s equities co-chief (FT)

• Panera jumps into restaurant discount fight (WSJ)

• What AI executives tell their own kids about the jobs of the future (WSJ)

• Woman suing Meta, YouTube testifies it’s ‘too hard to be without’ social media (WSJ)

• Government agencies raise alarms about use of Elon Musk’s Grok chatbot (WSJ)

• New Zealand rolls out the welcome mat for wealthy American home buyers (WSJ)

• Credit fears put Blue Owl on track for worst month since 2022 (BB)

• Financial shares walloped by AI, credit woes hit three-month low (BB)

• Tricolor noteholders sue JPMorgan, Barclays and Fifth Third (BB)

• Goldman says it’s unlike private credit peers hit by redemptions (LM)

• 42% of restaurants did not turn a profit last year (WTOP)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Weakness driven by AI disruption concerns, Iran tensions, and firm PPI inflation

• Treasuries rallied, pushing the 10-year yield below 4% for the first time since November

• U.S. dollar softened; gold moved higher in risk-off trade

• Oil rebounded sharply amid supply disruption concerns tied to U.S.–Iran tensions

Economic Data Highlights

• Headline PPI (Jan) rose 0.5% MoM, above expectations for 0.3%

• Core goods prices ex food & energy increased 0.7%

• Services inflation reflected higher wholesale and retail margins, likely tariff pass-through

• Data point to pipeline inflation pressures, especially tariff-related

• Sticky inflation likely keeps the Fed on hold through 1H 2026

Fixed Income Trends

• February was a strong month for bonds

  • 10-year yield down ~25 bps, largest monthly decline in a year

• Safe-haven demand tied to geopolitics and AI-related equity volatility

• Market reassured by Kevin Warsh nomination and perceived Fed independence

Outlook

• Near-term volatility tied to inflation and geopolitics remains elevated

• Economic growth remains intact, though inflation pressures complicate the policy path

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Block, Inc. ($XYZ) +17% after the company slashed its headcount in half.

• (+) Netflix ($NFLX) +14% because the Warner Bros Discovery acquisition fell through.

• (–) CoreWeave ($CRWV) -19% after the company’s quarterly revenue guidance missed expectations.

Prediction Markets

• Elon said the $1.75T IPO could happen as soon as next month.

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• The Brink’s Co. will acquire NCR Atleos for $6.6 billion

• Revel, a unified software platform for hardware test and control, raised $150 million

• Viture, an XR glasses maker, raised $100 million

• Salma Health, a brain health startup, raised $80 million

• Gambit Security, a cyber resiliency platform, raised $61 million

• BreezeBio, an mRNA diabetes therapy biotech, raised $60 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

The Doom Loop

Description: A sharp, globally minded analysis of how mounting debt, geopolitical rivalry, demographic strain, and fractured institutions are reinforcing one another in destabilizing cycles. Prasad argues that the post–Cold War economic framework is breaking down, and without structural reform, the world risks prolonged stagnation and disorder. The book blends macroeconomics, geopolitics, and financial systems thinking into a sober warning about the fragility of the current global order.

Book Length: 368 pages
Release Date: February 3, 2026

Ideal For: Macro investors, policymakers, economists, and anyone trying to understand the structural forces reshaping global markets.

“When economic shocks compound instead of cancel out, instability becomes the norm rather than the exception.”

DAILY VISUAL

Red Bull Still Flying the Highest

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The same logic applies to focus. Concentration is capital.

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Creating an edge means choosing the tools that help you execute when it counts.

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DAILY ACUMEN

Mentors

Most people don't actually want a mentor. They want a mirror.

Someone who reflects their thinking back with slightly more authority. Someone who validates the plan, confirms the instinct, and makes the decision they'd already made feel inevitable.

Real mentorship is almost nothing like that.

The most valuable person in your corner is the one who asks the question you were hoping nobody would ask.

Who sees the flaw you were quietly hoping would go unnoticed. Who respects you enough to be honest when honesty is the harder thing to offer.

That relationship is rare because it requires two uncomfortable things at once: someone willing to tell the truth, and someone willing to hear it.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Are Anthropic’s new AI work tools game-changing for professionals?

• The hidden burden of being a hyper-independent person 

• How AI salaries are causing couples to rethink money in relationships

• 5 mistakes top executives make in managing their weaknesses

• Can introverts be effective leaders?

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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