Good Morning! Dollar Tree is staging a comeback as higher-income shoppers trade down. Anthropic is gearing up for one of the largest IPOs ever as it races OpenAI to go public. And Stephen Ross thinks he’s solved Miami traffic with $200 flying taxis.

TikTok will pour $37 billion into Brazil for new data-center infrastructure. SEC Chair Atkins says the U.S. financial system could shift toward tokenization within a few years. And Capital Group, the $3 trillion mutual-fund giant, is making a rare push into private assets.

Plus: A Barclays exec says the top five tech firms may need $100B in fresh funding next year, HSBC’s CEO vows to be “ruthless” in the bank’s push into the global top five, and how to rebuild your productivity system from scratch.

Get access to diverse private credit opportunities with Percent.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

The Invisible Giant of Market Making

Hudson River Trading is the biggest trading firm that most people in finance still probably haven’t heard of. Unlike its competitors, HRT does not have a celebrity founder, no meme-worthy “fastest trader alive” stories, or the media machinery you see around Citadel Securities or Jane Street. But while those firms dominated headlines in 2025, HRT quietly dominated the P&L.

The firm posted a record $3.7 billion in revenue last quarter, its second straight quarter beating Citadel Securities, and lender disclosures reveal the bigger picture: HRT has already generated over $9 billion through the first nine months of 2025, more than its entire 2024 haul of $8 billion. For a shop built on staying invisible, the leaked numbers say it all: HRT is having a breakout year.

Hudson River Trading is separating itself from Citadel Securities and Jane Street by doing the one thing high-frequency firms were never supposed to do: slow down.

While its peers still dominate ultra-fast flow, HRT has shifted a large chunk of its book into “slower” trades that hold risk overnight or for days at a time, using deep-learning models to forecast liquidity, volatility, and price dislocations that speed alone cannot capture. 

This blend of fast execution plus medium-horizon prediction is rare in market making, and it is why nearly half of HRT’s recent profits reportedly came from these slower wagers. It is a fundamentally different engine: Citadel wins by scale, Jane Street wins by breadth, but HRT is using AI to win on signal quality.

HRT spends roughly $1 billion a year on AI, building custom GPU/CPU systems, proprietary deep-learning models, and an internal research lab called HRT AI Labs. Every employee can tap into the same shared model and code base on day one, letting research flow straight into trading. The firm’s philosophy is simple: more compute → better models → better fills → more revenue.

Takeaway: All of this sits inside a culture that looks nothing like a typical Wall Street trading floor, more puzzles, whiteboards, and games than fancy suits. But the engine underneath is massive: HRT now handles about 15% of all U.S. equity volume and 4% of options, quietly taking market share without saying a word. Take a bow, HRT, Take a bow.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Wealthy shoppers flock to Dollar Tree (Axios)

• Anthropic quietly makes moves toward blockbuster IPO (CNBC)

• Billionaire Stephen Ross proposes flying taxis as a $200 fix for Miami’s commuting gridlock (WSJ)

• TikTok to invest more than $37 billion in Brazil data-center expansion (BB)

• SEC’s Atkins predicts U.S. financial system could shift to tokenization within a few years (Fox)

• Secretive $3 trillion fund giant makes flashy move into private assets (BB)

• Barclays exec says top five tech firms could need $100 billion in funding next year (YF)

• HSBC chief pledges to be ‘ruthless’ in elevating bank to top 5 status (FT)

• M&A boom fuels record decline in Japan’s listed companies (BB)

• ADP says private payrolls fell by 32,000 last month as job market cools (YF)

• Trump invites America's wealthiest to fund his presidency (Axios)

• Microsoft denies report of lowering targets for AI software sales growth (YF)

• Security startup Verkada hits $5.8 billion valuation in latest funding round led by CapitalG (CNBC)

• Why aspirational luxury shopping is losing steam, and what’s ahead in 2026 (CNBC)

• Private credit fears are based on four myths (BB)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Stocks gained Wednesday as the ISM Services PMI for November rose to 52.6, the highest since February, signaling steady economic activity.

• The prices sub-index fell to 65.4, the lowest since April, suggesting some easing in services inflation.

• The ADP employment report showed private employment declined by 32,000, well below expectations for a gain of 40,000, adding to rate-cut expectations.

• Cyclical sectors such as energy and financials led the day, while small caps outperformed with the Russell 2000 up more than 1%.

• Overseas, Asia was mixed (Japan’s Nikkei +1%, China lower) and Europe was flat, supported by a stronger eurozone composite PMI at 52.8.

• Bond yields edged lower, with the 10-year at 4.06% and the 2-year near 3.48%.

Economic Data Highlights

• The ADP report showed notable weakness in small-business hiring, with firms under 50 employees cutting 120,000 jobs.

• Job openings continue to trend lower, pointing to cooling labor demand.

• Markets now price in a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut next week, up sharply from 70% last week.

• Despite slower hiring, layoffs remain limited and wage growth remains positive, helping sustain consumer demand.

Sector Trends

• Energy and financials led gains, supported by improving credit conditions and stable oil prices.

• Investors continue to rotate into cyclicals as markets anticipate a December Fed rate cut and potential economic reacceleration in early 2026.

Earnings Today

• Ulta Beauty (ULTA) – Watch for holiday sales commentary and margin trends amid a competitive retail landscape.

• DocuSign (DOCU) – Focus on enterprise renewal rates and adoption of AI-powered agreement tools.

• Rubrik (RBRK) – Key insights expected on data-security demand and enterprise cloud-backup momentum.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) American Eagle ($AEO) +15% after the retailer raised its forecast after Sydney Sweeney ads.

• (–) Netflix ($NFLX) -5% because the company could win the Warner Bros. Discovery bidding war.

• (–) Pure Storage ($PSTG) -27% after the company announced an expensive AI reinvestment plan.

Prediction Markets

• Unemployment numbers for November will be announced on December 5th.

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Marvell Technology bought Celestial AI for $3.25 billion

• CVC Capital Partners bought the baggage screening business of Smiths Group for $2.6 billion

• The Baldwin Group bought insurance broker CAC Group for $1.03 billion

• Franchise Equity Partners bought IMO Car Wash for $440 million

• Eon, a cloud backup platform, raised $300 million

• Mujin, an automation tech company, raised $233 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

How To Listen When Markets Speak

Description: A blunt wake-up call to investors: the old rules no longer apply. McDonald — veteran of Wall Street’s collapse and founder of the advisory platform behind the book — maps out 21 signals that flash danger or opportunity across the global economy, arguing that a coming era of inflation, debt crises, and shifting power will make traditional stock-and-bond playbooks obsolete. Instead, he calls for a shift toward “real” assets and active risk awareness. 

Book Length: 304 pages
Release Date: 2024

Ideal For: Investors, financial professionals, macro watchers, and anyone skeptical of “set-it-and-forget-it” passive investing — especially those seeking a forward-looking, risk-conscious view of global finance.

“The world’s changed — so should your playbook. When markets speak, you better be listening.”

DAILY VISUAL

Spotify Wrapped 2025 is Finally Here

PRESENTED BY KINGSCROWD

Founders Become Investors

Experts report that up to 85% of angel investors have founded at least one company, and one study found that 55% of angel investors were previously founders or CEOs.

When evaluating seed-stage opportunities, the difference between success and failure often comes down to one thing: did the founder validate demand before building?

Join Chris Lustrino, CEO of Kingscrowd, for this fireside chat with James Sinclair, a founder with multiple exits and two decades of startup mentorship.  In today's webinar, James will focus on early-stage validation frameworks and cover how disciplined founders test ideas, design MVPs that convert, and achieve early traction without wasting runway.

For investors, this translates into better diligence questions. You'll learn what validation metrics matter in the first 12-18 months, how to identify product-market fit signals early, and how to underwrite founder “grit”.
 
Whether a founder or investor, join Chris and Jame for today’s webinar.

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DAILY ACUMEN

Observation

Sherlock Holmes saw what others merely looked at.

The difference?

He trained himself to observe.

Studies show we miss up to 50% of what's in front of us because our brains are on autopilot.

What details are you missing in your daily life?

Practice observation. Notice the small things. Pay attention to patterns.

Remember, the world reveals its secrets to those who truly look.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• The method I used to reclaim 72 hours a week

• How to recover your productivity system

• 3 cognitive habits of people who get things done

• The 82 books that top business leaders could not put down

• How 7 people who live in the coldest part of the country stay warm

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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