Good Morning! OpenAI is prepping for an IPO by year-end. Blank Street is abandoning its tiny coffee shop model to take on Starbucks. And a JPMorgan-led bank group pulled out of a $5.3 billion debt deal for software firm Qualtrics after investors balked amid growing anxiety over AI disruption.

America now has more spas and gyms than stores selling actual goods. Miami has overtaken LA and New York as the world’s riskiest housing market for bubble risk, surpassing 2006 levels. And Mastercard has agreed to acquire London-based stablecoin infrastructure startup BVNK for up to $1.8 billion.

Plus: JPMorgan is planning a Boston hiring spree after locking in new office space, and how to develop your sense of executive presence.

More than 1 million investors start their day with The Daily Upside. Sign up for free and stay ahead.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

The 520% Drone IPO

Swarmer Inc., an obscure AI drone software company, went public yesterday and became the hottest IPO since Newsmax last year. The Austin-based company went to market priced at $5 a share, implying a valuation just north of $60 million. By the close, the stock was up 520% at $31, giving it a market cap above $380 million. 

Swarmer briefly surged more than 700% intraday, triggered multiple volatility halts, including one less than a minute after the open, and at one point dropped more than 10% before ripping higher again.

By any traditional framework, the valuation makes no sense. Swarmer generated just $309,920 in revenue last year, down 6% from the year before, and posted an $8.5 million net loss, more than four times its loss in 2024. A $380 million market cap on those numbers is not something you can justify with really any valuation methodology.

But Swarmer went public at the right time when AI and defense stocks are all the hype. The company’s pitch is software that enables autonomous, AI-coordinated armed drone swarms.

The company says the platform has been deployed in Ukraine since April 2024, logging more than 100,000 real-world combat missions. And for a company this small, that is an unusually powerful story: actual battlefield validation.

That timing mattered even more because the narrative was already moving in its favor. On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon wants to mass-produce kamikaze drones similar to those used in recent strikes on Iran.

So Swarmer didn’t just show up as another speculative AI listing. It showed up as an AI drone company in the middle of a live defense repricing, when public markets are willing to suspend disbelief and pay up for almost anything that sounds like the future of warfare.

Takeaway: Is Swarmer worth $380 million? On fundamentals, absolutely not. But this was an IPO driven by timing, geopolitics, and a market suddenly willing to pay almost any price for battlefield AI. Newsmax caught a culture-war bid, and Swarmer caught a defense-tech one. Different story, same lesson: the wild IPO is back.

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The Daily Upside is the antidote; calm, collected insights without the fear mongering.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• OpenAI preps for IPO in 2026, says ChatGPT must be 'productivity tool' (CNBC)

• Blank Street bets on bigger stores, matcha drinks to become Gen Z's Starbucks (BB)

• JPMorgan halts Qualtrics $5.3 billion debt deal on software pain (BB)

• Private credit's 'off-ramp' emerges as investors look to cash out and default fears grow (CNBC)

• America now has more spas and gyms than stores selling actual stuff (WSJ)

• Miami overtakes Los Angeles and New York as world's riskiest housing market for bubble risk (Fox)

• Mastercard expands crypto effort, buying BVNK (Axios)

• JPMorgan plans Boston hiring spree after leasing office space (BB)

• JPMorgan hires Goldman's Zhang to co-head China IB business (BB)

• Julius Baer to pay CEO $30 million including Goldman exit compensation (BB)

• Wall Street helps rich investors cut tax bills amid Treasury scrutiny (BB)

• Private credit enters its musical chairs phase (BB)

• A significant private credit shakeout on par with Covid losses is coming, predicts Morgan Stanley (CNBC)

• Apartment concessions hit highest level in over a decade (CNBC)

• Central banks face policy trap as Iran war drives inflation shock just as growth momentum fades (YF)

• Retail investors pull billions from private capital’s credit gold mine (FT)

• Accountancy’s partnership pipeline risks running dry (FT)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Momentum

• U.S. equities extended gains, with the S&P 500 +0.3% and Russell 2000 +0.7%

• Gains came despite WTI crude rising to ~$96 per barrel following renewed energy infrastructure attacks

• Bond yields declined, with the 10-year down ~2 bps today and ~10 bps lower week-to-date

• The U.S. dollar weakened, down roughly 0.75% from recent highs, as safe-haven demand eased

• Markets are balancing improving sentiment with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty

Consumer Impact of Energy Prices

• Rising oil prices are pushing gasoline prices higher, now averaging ~$3.80 per gallon nationally

• Prices have increased by about $1 from January lows, with California nearing $5.50 per gallon

• The cost to fill a midsize SUV has risen by roughly $15 during the recent oil spike

• Gasoline accounts for only ~3% of CPI spending, down from prior years

• However, broader inflation pressure may build as diesel prices exceed $5 per gallon, impacting:

  • Freight and transportation

  • Agriculture

  • Construction

• The key variable remains whether the spike proves short-lived or sustained

Central Bank Watch

• A heavy week of global central bank meetings is underway

• Markets now expect one 25 bps Fed rate cut in 2026, reduced from earlier expectations

• This aligns with prior FOMC projections, though updated guidance will be closely watched

• The Fed is likely to remain cautious given:

  • Short-term inflation risks from oil

  • Uncertainty around growth

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Delta ($DAL) +7% after CEO Ed Bastian told CNBC that demand has been exceptionally strong, leading to higher revenue growth than the company initially forecast.

• (+) Uber ($UBER) +4% because the rideshare company announced it will launch Nvidia-powered robotaxis on its platform starting in 2027 in San Francisco and Los Angeles.

• (–) Eli Lilly ($LLY) -6% after HSBC downgraded the pharma giant, arguing the stock is priced to perfection and flagging concerns about working capital trends and medium-term earnings estimates.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Prediction Markets

• Fed rate decision is at 2pm today. Market says there is no chance for a cut.

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Mastercard will acquire BVNK for up to $1.8 billion

• Nitra, an AI platform for health care financial and operational workflows, raised $187 million

• Frore Systems, a data center cooling startup, raised $143 million

• Upvest, an investment infrastructure platform, raised $125 million

• ReNew Green Energy Solutions, a decarbonization company, raised $95 million

• R1 Therapeutics, a biotech focused on chronic kidney disease, raised $77.5 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Fateful Hours

Description: A gripping historical account of the final moments of the Weimar Republic and the forces that enabled the rise of authoritarian rule in Germany. Ullrich reconstructs the political miscalculations, economic pressures, and societal divisions that culminated in the collapse of democracy, offering a detailed narrative of how fragile institutions can unravel under sustained stress. The book provides both a vivid historical record and a sobering reflection on the conditions that threaten democratic systems.

Book Length: 320 pages
Release Date: November 11, 2025

Ideal For: Historians, political analysts, policymakers, and readers interested in the dynamics of democratic decline and authoritarian rise.

Democracies rarely fall in a single moment. They weaken gradually through complacency, division, and decisions that seem small until they are not.

DAILY VISUAL

Share of Financial Wealth in Bank Deposits

PRESENTED BY F2

Built for Speed (and Precision)

In investment memos and IC decks, the inevitable question is simple: Where did this number come from?

Tracking the origin of a figure inside a complex model or spreadsheet can take longer than the analysis itself, especially when sitting in front of everyone at IC.

F2’s Audit Mode is designed to make that process fast and error-free. Inside Excel, it can trace any value back to its exact origin, including the file, sheet, cell, formula, and source material behind it.

Instead of manually retracing calculations or rebuilding work, your team can audit numbers in seconds and move forward quickly.

According to F2’s clients, the workflow can reduce diligence and review time by up to 75%, while keeping every output fully auditable.

Take Audit Mode for a test drive today.

DAILY ACUMEN

Luck

The most successful people tend to have the most sophisticated understanding of how much luck contributed to their outcomes. The least successful tend to blame luck for everything. The dangerous ones in the middle credit themselves for the wins and blame circumstances for the losses.

This is not a moral failing. It is just how the human brain protects its own narrative. But it produces a systematically distorted picture of reality that makes it very hard to replicate the wins or learn from the losses.

Honest accounting of what you controlled and what you didn't is one of the rarest and most valuable thinking skills that exists.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• The tool you are missing to unlock focus*

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MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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