Good Morning! It was another wild trade war day. After Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, Ontario suspended its 25% tax on electricity exports to the U.S.

Hedge funds are shelling out up to $1 million for top weather modeling experts, private equity is eyeing a bigger slice of the $12.5 trillion retirement market, and Trump bought a red Tesla at the White House to back Elon Musk.

Plus: Southwest Airlines' stock soared after ditching free checked bags, Big Tech support tripling nuclear power by 2050, and February’s CPI report drops today.

Curious how news moves markets? Build custom graphs and watchlists with this ChatGPT for finance.

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Tequila Recession

Trump’s tariffs could mark trouble if not an existential crisis for an industry everyone loves to hate: celebrity tequila.

Incoming 25% tariffs from Mexico are challenging for most beverage companies but, unlike corporate alcohol giants, celebrity brands are more vulnerable because they lack supply chain expertise and pricing power.

Tequila exports to the U.S. jumped 35% in January as brands rush to get ahead of the incoming 25% tariffs. And Kendall Jenner’s 818 tequila, for example, stockpiled six months of inventory ahead of a potential trade war.

By law, tequila can only be produced in designated regions of Mexico—primarily in Jalisco and parts of Guanajuato, Michoacán, Nayarit, and Tamaulipas. Any agave spirit made outside of these regions, even with the same process, cannot legally be called tequila.

Tequila’s star-powered brands have already lost momentum. Casamigos (George Clooney’s brand) experienced a 22% sales decline in early 2025. New tequila brand launches fell 20% last year.

And after years of double-digit growth, overall tequila volume growth in the U.S. slowed to just 1% in 2023.

Takeaway: For celebrity tequila, the only thing on the rocks might be their business model. Tequila’s U.S. growth has been wobbling lately, and Trump’s tariffs could be the final shake-up. It’s likely that luxury brands will survive, but for celebrity tequila, the days of easy hype and billion-dollar exits might be over.

_{PRESENTED BY BIGDATA.COM}

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Power your investments with better data–get started with Bigdata.com for free.

_HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Ontario suspends U.S. electric surcharge after conversation with Howard Lutnick (CNBC)

• Ontario PM threatened to shut off electricity for the U.S. completely if trade war escalates (CNN)

• Converge Ray Dalio warns that mounting U.S. debt problems could lead to ‘shocking developments’ (CNBC)

• Hedge funds paying up to $1M for weather modeling experts (BB)

• Private equity wants a larger piece of workplace retirement assets (CNBC)

• Southwest Airlines getting rid of free checked baggage (CNN) 

• Trump shops for Teslas at White House to back Elon Musk (BB)

• Musk says he believes DOGE will reach goal of $1 trillion in savings (Fox)

• VC and private equity are in a mess of their own making (Axios)

• Wall Street forecasts are falling apart for 1 simple reason (YF)

• Private credit’s push for retail money stokes new vulnerability (BB)

• Citi becomes latest Wall Street shop to downgrade U.S. stocks (CNBC)

• Major U.S. airlines warn consumers aren’t spending (Axios)

• Ukraine agrees to U.S.-led ceasefire agreement (CNBC)

• Trump trading is not for the faint of heart (Axios)

• Amazon, Google and Meta support tripling nuclear power by 2050 (CNBC)

_{CAPITAL PULSE}

Markets Rundown

Stocks Slide as Tariff Tensions Flare, Small Businesses Signal Caution

On Tuesday, stocks ended lower but pared earlier losses after a volatile day sparked by a U.S. tariff hike on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, in retaliation to Ontario’s now-suspended 25% electricity export surcharge.

Trade talks resumed, easing some fears, yet bond yields crept up—with the 10-year Treasury at 4.28%—as markets anticipate two to three Fed rate cuts in 2025.

Small business optimism dipped, with the NFIB Index falling to 100.7 in February from 102.8, though still above the 98 average, tempered by a near-record uncertainty spike to 104 and labor quality woes despite 53% of firms hiring.

Investors brace for today’s CPI, expected to drop to 2.9% from 3.0%, with core CPI at 3.2%, hinting at cooling inflation led by shelter costs easing to 4.4%—a sign of resilience amid trade and economic crosswinds.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Reddit ($RDDT) +14% after Loop Capital says the stock’s pullback represents a buying opportunity.

• (+) Southwest Airlines ($LUV) +8% because the airline will charge to check bags.

• (–) Delta Airlines ($DAL) -7% after the airline cut its outlook on weaker demand.

Private Dealmaking

• Boston Scientific bought SoniVie, an ultrasound systems maker, for $540 million

• Bristol Myers Squibb bought 2seventy bio for $286 million

• Zolve, a neobank, raised $251 million

• Lila Sciences, a superintelligence startup, raised $200 million 

• Cartesia, a voice AI startup, raised $64 million

• Atmosic Technologies, a battery tech developer raised $40 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

Bulleit Proof

Tom Bulleit stood on a stage before a thousand people inside a tent the size of a big-top. It was both his thirtieth wedding anniversary and his birthday. But there was another thing to celebrate: the dedication of the new Bulleit Distillery in Shelbyville, Kentucky.

His great-great-grandfather, Augustus, created his first batch of Bulleit Bourbon around 1830. A century and a half later, Tom fulfilled his lifelong dream, revived the old family bourbon recipe, and started Bulleit Distilling Company.

Eventually, Tom was named a member of the Honorable Order of Kentucky Colonels, and elected to the Kentucky Bourbon Hall of Fame. Thinking back on all his achievements, Tom was overcome by a wave of emotion. He looked into the sea of faces and said, “I don't believe our lives are told in years. . . or months. . . or weeks. I believe we live our lives in moments."

Tom’s book Bulleit Proof is just that―a life told in moments. Moments of joy, triumph, hardship, persistence, and success. His is a story of survival: in war, in business, in life. Tom faced death twice: in a foxhole and in a cancer ward. In Bulleit Proof, Tom reveals all, pulls no punches, and lets you into his heart.

“The compelling story of how one man took a 150-year-old family recipe and disrupted the entire liquor industry one sip, one bottle, one handshake at a time.”

_{DAILY VISUAL}

Second Job Kinda Economy

_{PRESENTED BY PLAID}

6 Fintech Predictions From Plaid

FinTech winter? AI takeover? Big banks focusing on fraud?

If you want to stay ahead in 2025, see the six bold predictions that Plaid’s Co-founder and CEO Zach Perret makes for fintech.

From stablecoins taking center stage to AI rewriting the rules of banking and financial services, these insights break down what’s next—and how to make the most of it.

Don’t just watch the trends. Be ahead of them.

_{DAILY ACUMEN}

Volunteering

Nearly one-third of Americans aged 25-44 volunteer formally, while over half engage informally, seeking purpose beyond their careers.

For many, the early workforce years feel like following orders rather than effecting change, leaving a void that volunteering fills—offering meaning, community impact, and even health benefits.

The key is starting small within your control, focusing on personal values like health equity or local support, rather than waiting for grand opportunities that may never come.

By acting now—whether through a neighborhood initiative or a friend’s cause—you can spark inspiration that reshapes not just your life but your career, proving that purpose grows from modest, intentional steps.

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Short Squeez Picks

• 7 CEOs share their packing secrets

• The top solo travel destination for 2025

• 6 tips highly successful leaders use daily

• Why leadership success means focusing on the right intentions

• The difference between meaning and purpose 

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Memes of the Day