Good Morning! Goldman scored its biggest M&A fee ever ($110 million) for advising EA on its LBO. Market selloffs are showing Wall Street doesn’t reward AI spending equally: hyperscalers are getting love, while DoorDash and Duolingo are getting punished. And Anthropic is on pace to turn profitable much faster than OpenAI.

AMD CEO Lisa Su projects the AI data-center market will hit $1 trillion by 2030. Smart ring maker Oura expects nearly $2 billion in 2026 sales, doubling for a second straight year. And Neuberger Berman raised $7 billion for a new private-credit fund.

Plus: “Ghost job” postings are adding confusion to an already-stalled labor market, and why bringing your whole self to work might be bad advice.

Curious on what comp packages look like in 2025? Read Deel’s Global Compensation Report here.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

SoftBank Dumps Nvidia

Masayoshi Son just sold one of his best trades to fund his next big AI gamble. SoftBank unloaded its entire $5.8 billion stake in Nvidia to finance a $30 billion investment in OpenAI, making the Japanese group the chatbot maker’s largest outside backer.

SoftBank has already deployed $7.5 billion into OpenAI, and the payoff is showing up in earnings. Quarterly profit surged to $16.2 billion, more than double last year, driven by gains from OpenAI’s latest $500 billion valuation.

While SoftBank has spent years digging out from its Vision Fund losses, its Nvidia trade turned into a rare win. The firm first bought a 5% stake in 2016, then sold in 2019, missing what would have been a $210 billion windfall.

It re-entered in 2020 with a $180 million position, rode the AI boom as Nvidia’s market cap hit $5 trillion, and exited again in October with a more than 30x return.

SoftBank wants to be the backbone of the AI wave and is differentiating itself by investing in physical infrastructure like data centers and robotics. To keep capital flowing for new deals, the company has sold $11 billion in T-Mobile and Deutsche Telekom shares, increased a $6.5 billion margin loan on its Arm holdings, and raised another $4 billion through Japanese bonds. It has also agreed to buy ABB’s robotics division for $5.4 billion.

Markets have embraced SoftBank’s turnaround story. The stock has tripled since April, lifting Masayoshi Son’s personal stake to roughly $70 billion.

Takeaway: Masayoshi Son missed the first AI boom with his mistimed Nvidia exit, he’s not making that mistake again. By selling the chipmaker stake to fund a $30 billion OpenAI bet, Son is trading a proven winner for a shot at shaping the future of AI itself. If it works, SoftBank could cement itself as the backbone of the AI era, and if not, it might be another Vision Fund-sized gamble.

PRESENTED BY DEEL

The Data Behind Today’s Compensation Decisions

AI specialists now earn 20–25% premiums above base compensation, and the 90th percentile is climbing faster as startups compete for machine learning talent. Meanwhile, equity grants for engineers have expanded globally every year since 2021.

Deel and Carta's second annual compensation report covers 1 million+ contracts from 35,000+ companies across 150+ countries. The data reveals how companies are navigating inflation through one-time bonuses instead of permanent raises, why contractor hiring is booming in Latin America, and where gender pay gaps remain stubborn in tech roles.

For investors tracking burn rates or finance teams benchmarking comp packages, the report provides actionable data on global hiring costs and equity allocation trends.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Goldman Sachs earns record $110 million fee in Electronic Arts deal (FT)

• DoorDash, Duolingo show Wall Street doesn’t love AI spending equally (CNBC)

• Anthropic is on track to turn a profit much faster than OpenAI (WSJ)

• AMD CEO Lisa Su says AI data center market will be worth $1 trillion by 2030 (YF)

• Oura expects close to $2 billion in 2026 sales, almost doubling (CNBC)

• Neuberger Berman raises $7 billion for private credit fund (BB)

• 'Ghost job' postings are adding another layer of uncertainty to picture (CNBC)

• The bowl crisis indicator flashes red (YF)

• JPMorgan, Sculptor lend $686 million for luxury Las Vegas condos (BB)

• AI fueled the stock market rally, earnings are now giving it staying power (YF)

• Bank of America says more US households are living paycheck to paycheck (YF)

• KKR-backed Optiv starts private talks with junior lenders (BB)

• Humans have pretty much always been in financial crisis (NYP)

• Job seekers stare down a gloomy holiday hiring season (WSJ)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Stocks reversed early losses to close higher, led by gains in health care, energy, and consumer staples, which offset weakness in technology.

• Bond markets were closed for Veterans Day, leading to light trading volumes.

• Asia finished mixed overnight after retreating from earlier gains, while Europe advanced as the U.S. and Switzerland moved toward a trade deal that could cut 39% tariffs on Swiss exports.

• The U.S. dollar weakened, while WTI oil rose after Russia’s Lukoil halted production in Iraq, tightening global supply.

Economic Data Highlights

• With 91% of S&P 500 companies reporting, 81% beat estimates with an average 7.2% upside surprise.

• Earnings growth forecasts for Q3 have been revised up to 12.6%, from 7.3% earlier.

• Technology, financials, and utilities lead growth, with nine of eleven sectors showing year-over-year gains.

• Broader earnings strength continues to support market resilience and improve the case for diversification.

Policy Update

• The Senate passed a government funding bill in a 60–40 vote, advancing it to the House for approval as early as Wednesday.

• President Trump has indicated he intends to sign the measure, which could end the record shutdown this week.

• The bill funds most agencies through October 2026 and provides back pay to furloughed workers.

Earnings Today

• CRCL (Circle) – Focus on stablecoin adoption and regulatory clarity.

• ONON (On Holding) – Watch for gross-margin trends and international expansion.

• CSCO (Cisco Systems) – Key to monitor enterprise demand and AI-related spending.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) eToro Group ($ETOR) +9% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the trading platform to buy.

• (–) CoreWeave ($CRWV) -16% because the cloud computing company issued weak guidance.

• (–) Life360 ($LIF) -22% after buying advertising company Nativo for $120 million.

Prediction Markets

• CPI numbers are scheduled to be announced today.

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Life360 will buy Nativo, an advertising company, for $120 million

• Gamma, a presentations startup, raised $68 million

• Inception, a developer of diffusion LLMs, raised $50 million

• DeepJudge, an AI search startup for law firms, raised $41 million

• Fastbreak AI, a sports operations software provider, raised $40 million

• Aim Security, a security platform, raised $30 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Confessions of a Unicorn Founder

Description: A raw and unflinching memoir from a startup veteran who reached the glittering heights of unicorn status—and crashed back down. Cohen blends the stories of soaring valuations, investor worship, boardroom betrayals, and personal burnout into a cautionary tale of what it really costs to chase the dream.

Book Length: 392 pages
Release Date: September 29, 2025

Ideal For: Founders, startup teams, investors, and anyone curious about the personal toll of high-growth tech—and how to build something real without losing yourself.

“How much is enough? Just a little more.”

DAILY VISUAL

11.8 Million Subscribers

PRESENTED BY VANTA

Vanta Automates Compliance, So You Can Focus on Growth

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Vanta offers fintechs automated, continuous compliance, letting you keep up with increasing regulatory requirements and still focus on scaling your company.

Ramp, a Vanta customer, recently secured $500 million in funding at a $22.5 billion valuation. Vanta itself closed a Series D at a $4.15 billion valuation, proof that the platform delivers results for fast-growing teams.

Learn more about how Ramp keeps its global financial operations platform compliant and stays focused on growth with Vanta.

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DAILY ACUMEN

Myth of Motivation

Motivation is overrated. It’s an unreliable visitor. Thrilling when it shows up, absent when you need it most.

The people who build real fortunes or mastery don’t rely on motivation, they rely on systems.

Discipline is the infrastructure of freedom.

By building habits that carry you when emotion fades, you create progress that compounds automatically.

The investor who dollar-cost averages wins not because they’re inspired, but because they’re consistent.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Why bringing your whole self to work is bad advice

• 6 defensive behaviors that show up at work

• The limits of hybrid and remote work

• 4 ways to make your daily walk more effective

• How to find job security in the age of layoffs

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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