Good Morning! OpenAI is paying more than any startup in history, with stock-based comp averaging $1.5 million per employee in 2025. The Trump admin moved to restrict state childcare payments after the Minnesota daycare fraud case. And the world’s richest added $2.2T in wealth in 2025.

“Big Short” investor Michael Burry says he’s not shorting Tesla, even after calling the stock “ridiculously overvalued.” Retail traders wrapped up one of their best years ever. And Bill Ackman warned that “no one would stay” if California moves forward with a proposed wealth tax.

Plus: The investor who left the CIA for venture capital and five ways to live a luckier life.

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SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Rolex vs. Watch Flippers

Rolex finally decided to confront watch flippers, and it didn’t do it by flooding the market or cutting prices. Instead, the brand stepped in to control trust in a secondhand market riddled with counterfeits and speculation.

Three years ago, Rolex launched its Certified Pre-Owned program as the global market for used Swiss watches approached $25 billion a year.

The program is expected to generate over $500 million in sales in 2025, according to WatchCharts, and Watches of Switzerland has told investors that certified pre-owned Rolexes are now its second-biggest seller.

The economics aren’t the point. Rolex is likely only breaking even, by design. The real win is pricing power. Buyers are willing to pay roughly 28% more for a used Rolex that has been authenticated and serviced by the brand itself.

In some cases, the premium is far higher. A new GMT-Master II “Pepsi” retails for about $12,150, trades around $22,750 on resale sites, and clears closer to $26,750 when Rolex-certified.

Crucially, Rolex stays hands-off. Authorized dealers source the watches, authenticate and service them to Rolex standards, and set resale prices. Rolex just certifies authenticity and provides a two-year warranty.

Dealers keep the economics, while Rolex avoids inventory risk and sidesteps the backlash faced by brands like Audemars Piguet when they tried to control resale pricing directly.

Zoom out and the strategy becomes clear. Rolex sells roughly 1.2 million watches a year, controls about 32% of the global luxury watch market, and demand still exceeds supply. With resale prices acting as a public scoreboard, flippers and counterfeiters posed a reputational risk, one Rolex now appears to have brought back under control.

Takeaway: For luxury brands, the resale market is now too large to ignore. If buyers are willing to pay a premium for a guaranteed Rolex, they’ll likely do the same for other high-value goods like Hermès Birkin bags. Rolex has shown how it’s done: squeeze out counterfeiters, protect brand perception, and make even flippers work for you, without ever owning the inventory.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• OpenAI offers most generous pay in tech-startup history (WSJ)

• HHS freezes all childcare funding to Minnesota, citing 'blatant fraud' (YF)

• Warren Buffett era ends at Berkshire Hathaway (WSJ)

• 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry says he's not shorting Tesla (CNBC)

• Retail investors closed out one of their best years ever (CNBC)

• Bill Ackman warns ‘no one would stay’ if California implements wealth tax (NYP)

• The investor that left the CIA for venture capital (WSJ)

• World's richest added a record $2.2T in wealth this year (BB)

• Nike shares move higher on big insider purchases (CNBC)

• These stocks are the market's biggest winners and losers in 2025 (YF)

• Oil heads for steepest annual loss since 2020 (YF)

• China's reawakening puts Asia M&A on confident course for 2026 (BB)

• Economist sees Fed surprising with three rate cuts in first half of 2026 (CNBC)

• Bitcoin ends volatile year lower, but January could be 'bullish' (YF)

• Trump Media to distribute digital token to shareholders; stock jumps (YF)

• Gold, silver prices fall after CME raises precious metals margins again (CNBC)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. equities slipped on the final trading day of 2025 amid low liquidity and a quiet data calendar

• Despite the soft close, 2025 performance was strong: S&P 500 +16%, Nasdaq +20%, Russell 2000 +11%

• Treasury yields edged higher, with the 10-year up ~4 bps following firmer labor data

• Oil ended the year near $57, down roughly 20% in 2025

Economic Data Highlights

• Initial jobless claims fell to 199K, among the lowest readings of the year

• The four-week average remained contained near 220K, and continuing claims declined

• Data continue to point to a resilient labor market heading into 2026

Sector & Asset Class Trends

• Precious metals pulled back late in the year after higher margin requirements, but still posted outsized gains: gold +64% YTD, silver +145% YTD

• Bond markets finished slightly weaker on the day, but delivered solid full-year returns overall

• Thin trading conditions kept sector moves muted into year-end

Looking Ahead

• Market liquidity is expected to improve in early 2026 as the data calendar picks up

• Key releases next week include the December jobs report, ISM surveys, and consumer sentiment

• Fed minutes suggest most officials expect rate cuts in 2026, though near-term policy likely hinges on upcoming labor data

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Vanda Pharmaceuticals ($VNDA) +25% after the FDA approved tradipitant, a drug aimed at treating vomiting.

• (+) Nike ($NKE) +4% after CEO Elliott Hill bought $1M worth of shares.

• (–) Corcept Therapeutics ($CORT) -50% after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration did not approve of Corcept’s drug relacorilant.

Prediction Markets

• Happy New Year! 2026 rate cuts anyone?

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• OnCorps AI, an agentic AI platform for fund operations, raised $55 million

• Fluency, a digital advertising operating system, raised $40 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

The Making of a Permabear

Description: A candid, battle-tested account from one of the market’s most famous skeptics—how Grantham built his “permabear” instincts by watching bubbles form, peak, and punish believers across decades. Written with financial historian Edward Chancellor, it’s less about hot takes and more about pattern recognition: cycles, valuations, incentives, and the uncomfortable truth that long-term success often requires short-term unpopularity.

Book Length: 400 pages
Release Date: January 13, 2026

Ideal For: Long-term investors, macro obsessives, value disciples, and anyone who wants a sharper BS-detector for bubbles, narratives, and “this time is different.”

“In markets, the crowd feels safe—right up until it isn’t.”

DAILY VISUAL

Palantir on a Generational Run

2023: +167%
2024: +340%
2025: +135%

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DAILY ACUMEN

Sleep

Matthew Walker's research at Berkeley revealed something shocking: sleeping less than seven hours per night damages every aspect of human functioning. It impairs memory, creativity, immune function, emotional regulation, and decision-making.

After just one night of poor sleep, your cognitive performance drops to the level of legal intoxication. Yet we wear sleep deprivation like a badge of honor.

Arianna Huffington literally collapsed from exhaustion, breaking her cheekbone, before realizing that sacrificing sleep wasn't productive, it was destroying her.

Elite performers think differently: LeBron James sleeps 12 hours a day. Jeff Bezos prioritizes eight hours. Roger Federer gets 12.

They understand that sleep isn't downtime, it's when your brain consolidates learning, processes emotions, and repairs your body.

An hour of focused work after good sleep beats three hours of exhausted grinding.

What would change if you treated sleep as your most important meeting?

Remember, you're not cheating work by sleeping, you're cheating yourself by not sleeping.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• 3 tips on motivation from a pro athlete

• 5 ways to live a luckier life starting tomorrow

• How to be more productive

• Most top-performing adults weren’t elite specialists in childhood

• How to be taken seriously

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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